Hundreds of Israeli troops are carrying out a major offensive in the occupied West Bank, in Jenin, Tulkarem and the Far’a refugee camp near Tubas.
Israeli forces killed at least 10 Palestinians in what is believed to be the largest Israeli attack in 20 years, saying they were targeting “armed terrorists who posed a threat to security forces.”
The Palestinian Authority (PA) presidency condemned the Israeli attack and warned that it could have “disastrous and dangerous” consequences. PA President Mahmoud Abbas returned earlier than he had hoped from a visit to Saudi Arabia.
Israeli attacks on refugee camps and towns in the West Bank are a near-daily occurrence and have intensified since October 7. The scale of the current attack raises questions about its timing and motivations.
October 7 is the date Hamas launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, which killed 1,139 people in southern Israel and took about 240 prisoners.
Since then, Israel has killed at least 40,534 people and injured 93,778 others in Gaza.
During the same period, 662 Palestinians were killed and approximately 5,400 were injured in the West Bank.
Blaming Iran for the Resistance
In the West Bank, new Palestinian movements have emerged, affiliated with already established movements but developing their own strategies against the Israeli occupation after losing patience with the status quo.
On August 19, a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv, claimed by Hamas, appeared to raise concerns within the Israeli security services.
“This is a signal that Palestinian groups in the West Bank in clandestine cells are moving toward more offensive actions,” said Abdaljawad Omar, a political analyst based in Ramallah.
He added that the PA is “gradually losing its grip on social classes, particularly in the northern West Bank, alongside the rise of a new generation of Palestinians who are taking charge of the struggle on their own terms.”
This may have led Israeli forces to feel the need for a “more proactive offensive strategy,” Omar said.
“There is now an invasion and offensive action, including arrests, aimed at reaching the dense urban areas of the northern West Bank.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said the attack was aimed at “dismantling Iranian Islamic terrorist infrastructure” in the areas attacked.
“(Katz) should not be taken seriously at all,” political analyst Ori Goldberg told Tel Aviv Tribune. “The advantage of linking these groups to the Iranian threat is that it lets Israel off the hook.”
Omar dismissed the idea of links between groups in the West Bank and Iran as peripheral at best.
“There are elements of logistical support (for these groups) that come from outside Palestine,” Omar said, but there are “many indigenous factors behind the rise of these movements.”
Why now and for whom?
The recent attack comes as things are calming down on another front for Israel.
On Sunday, Israel struck Hezbollah in what it said was a preemptive strike while Hezbollah said it launched 340 rockets at 11 Israeli military bases.
The two sides have been regularly exchanging attacks across the Lebanese-Israeli border since October 8, leading to the evacuation of residents of southern Lebanon and Israeli border villages, a situation that increasingly frustrates their residents.
The situation on the border with Lebanon has calmed down, according to Israel’s allies, but Israel’s war on Gaza continues, even though negotiations for a ceasefire are underway. Observers do not have much hope for them.
Some analysts believe the West Bank attack was encouraged by right-wing politicians who enjoy growing power and influence in Israeli society.
Led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, this faction is pushing for Israel to move further into the West Bank in what analysts call attempts to fully annex the territory and displace Palestinians.
Katz’s statement Wednesday that Israel would relocate Palestinians living in the northern West Bank, as it regularly does with the population of Gaza, has heightened fears on that front.
In recent months, the far right has been vocal about its desire to annex the entire West Bank, as it gains strength under the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose coalition relies on the support of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
Netanyahu has faced several domestic hurdles in recent months, including widespread protests against his rule, harsh criticism from families of captives over his lack of action to return their loved ones and growing frustration among displaced Israelis.
Despite this growing burden and the growing influence it gives to the far right, Netanyahu maintains a slight lead in national polls over his main rival for prime minister, Benny Gantz.
“Netanyahu is not a madman,” Goldberg said. “He knows his constituency and his supporters. He knows that most Israelis are distraught over the events of the last year… but you won’t find a single Jewish Zionist politician who has proposed an alternative political or military vision.”
Israel’s fighting on multiple fronts is likely to continue, analysts warn. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations around Gaza have hit many snags, Israel continues to strike Hezbollah targets, and this latest attack is an escalation in an already seething West Bank.
“The genocidal logic that has been unfolding in Gaza since October continues, with no accountability and impunity not just a probability or a possibility, but virtually guaranteed because of the very specific role of the US in this and, to a lesser but still significant extent, the role of the EU in all of this,” Elia Ayoub, a postdoctoral researcher, writer and host of the podcast Fire These Times, told Tel Aviv Tribune.