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Israel-Hamas war: risk of extension of the conflict in the region

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After the death of a senior Hamas executive, Saleh al-Arouri, in an attack blamed on Israel, the director of the Israeli Mossad promises to track down members of the Islamist movement. Fears of the conflict expanding, Anthony Blinken is expected for a visit to the region.

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The head of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, David Barnea, vowed Wednesday that he would track down all Hamas members involved in the October 7 attack on Israel, wherever they are. The pledge came a day after the deputy leader of the Palestinian militant group, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed in a suspected Israeli attack on the outskirts of Beirut on Tuesday (January 2).

Israel has refused to comment on reports that the Jewish state was behind the assassination, but Mossad chief David Barnea’s remarks appear to be the strongest indication yet of Israel’s involvement. ‘Israel in the explosion. He drew a comparison with the aftermath of the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre, when Mossad agents tracked down and killed Palestinian militants involved in the assassination of Israeli athletes.

Risk of extension of the conflict

Israel was on high alert Wednesday, fearing an escalation with Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah militia, after the strike in the Lebanese capital killed Saleh al-Arouri, a senior Hamas official since the war between Israel and Hamas ended. broke out almost three months ago.

The strike on Hezbollah’s southern stronghold of Beirut could tip low-intensity fighting along the Lebanese border into all-out war.

In a speech Wednesday evening, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed revenge, repeating his group’s statement that “this dangerous crime” What is the assassination Saleh al-Arouri will not remain “unanswered and unpunished”. But it left the public uncertain about the date and form that revenge would take.

Mr Nasrallah said Hezbollah had so far been cautious in its strategic calculus in the conflict, balancing “the need to support the Gaza Strip and take into account Lebanese national interests“But if the Israelis launch a war against Lebanon, the group is ready for one.”fight without limits.They will regret it”, did he declare. “

Since the start of the war in Gaza, Hezbollah and the Israeli army have exchanged gunfire almost daily on the Israeli-Lebanese border. But Mr Nasrallah appears wary of further escalation, perhaps fearing a repeat of the month-long 2006 war in which Israel heavily bombed Beirut and southern Lebanon.

At the same time, Hezbollah is also under pressure to show support for its ally Hamas.

Mr. Nasrallah’s comments on the balance of interests reflect the group’s fear of being blamed by the Lebanese if its trade with Israel escalates into all-out war resulting in destruction similar to that of 2006. He avoided providing specifics on possible reprisals for the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, while indicating that he would address the issue in more detail in a new speech delivered this Friday.

He said, however, that if Israel attacked Lebanon, it would be in the national interest to retaliate. “We are not afraid of war“, did he declare. “If the enemy plans to launch a war against Lebanon, we will retaliate without ceiling and without limits.

Hezbollah has an arsenal of tens of thousands of rockets and missiles as well as different types of drones.

The United States seeks to prevent any expansion of the conflict, including by deploying two aircraft carriers and other military assets to the region. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected in the region today.

Mr Nasrallah praised Mr Arouri as well as the group’s October 7 attack, saying it had “brought light back to the Palestinian cause after it had been almost forgotten”. He said Israel had so far failed in all its objectives in the Gaza war and its international reputation was suffering as a result. Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Col. Herzi Halevi visited Israel’s northern border with Lebanon on Wednesday and said: “We are ready to intervene in the north.”

Hamas leaders clearly expect support from Hezbollah. In an interview last Saturday, three days before the Saleh al-Arouri assassination, an Associated Press reporter asked Beirut-based Hamas politician Osama Hamdan if the group was worried about the possibility that Israel would assassinate him. its representatives in Lebanon. Hamas official Osama Hamdan said Hezbollah would not let this go unpunished and that all-out war would ensue.

“Why would Israel want to do this?”

“Does Israel want a war” in Lebanon? asked Hamas official Osama Hamdan, “War may occur if Israel acts wrongly and aggressively, or war may not occurif Israel steps back and acts in a way that is not aggressive towards Lebanon“, he added.

In what appears to be an escalation, Hezbollah said Wednesday that nine of its fighters had been killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, one of the heaviest daily tolls in nearly three months of clashes.

Hezbollah also announced that its fighters had carried out 11 attacks on Israeli posts along the border, including four using Burkan rockets with heavy warheads, which the group has rarely fired during the current conflict.

Israel is believed to be behind the strike

Saleh al-Arouri was deputy to Hamas’s top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and headed the group’s presence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. He also liaised with Hezbollah. A US official confirmed that the Israeli army carried out the strike that killed Hamas’ number 2, and that the army had not notified the White House in advance. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the operation.

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It would be the first time since the war that Israel has traveled to another country to target Hamas leaders, many of whom live in exile in the region.

The Mossad chief’s comments suggest more assassinations of Hamas figures are to come, echoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats to kill Hamas leaders wherever they are found.

The war remains centered on Gaza, where Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said Israel seeks to win a “clear victory” on Hamas, which has ruled the territory since 2007.

Israel’s air, land and sea assault on the Gaza Strip has killed more than 22,300 people, two-thirds of them women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-ruled territory.

Disastrous humanitarian situation

The war has driven some 85 percent of Gazans from their homes, forcing hundreds of thousands of people into crowded shelters or crowded tent camps in Israeli-designated safe zones that the army has nonetheless bombed. A quarter of Gazans are at serious risk of starvation, with Israeli restrictions and heavy fighting hampering the delivery of aid, according to the United Nations.

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However, Israel appears far from having achieved its objectives of crushing Hamas and returning the approximately 129 hostages still held by the group.

Heavy fighting is also underway in central Gaza and the southern town of Khan Yunis, where Israeli officials say Hamas’s military structure is still largely intact. Yehya Sinwar, leader of Hamas in the Palestinian enclave, and his deputies have so far escaped Israeli forces.

U.N. spokesperson Florencia Soto Niño said representatives of the U.N. humanitarian office and the World Health Organization visited Al Amal Hospital in Khan Younis on Tuesday, which was hit by a deadly strike, and that they noted considerable damage. The UN and its humanitarian partners have not been able to deliver aid to the northern Gaza Strip for three days, Soto Niño said.

The UN humanitarian office warned that “a public health disaster threatens the Gaza Strip “Since October 7, more than 400,000 cases of infectious diseases have been reported, said Ms. Soto Niño, including some 180,000 people suffering from upper respiratory tract infections and more than 136,000 cases of diarrhea, half of them among children under 5 years old.

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