Personal relations between heads of state and senior officials are often an entrance to resolving many outstanding crises or pushing bilateral relations to more advanced stations.
The Turkish Presidents, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the American, Donald Trump, have enjoyed distinguished personal relationships, since the first term of Trump, on which the Turkish side is counting a lot to resolve the outstanding issues between the two countries.
On Monday, May 5, the two presidents held telephone talks, in which they discussed several important regional and international files, as Erdogan described it as “very fruitful, comprehensive and honest”, with which Trump agreed.
However, it is noticeable that, away from the content of the communication, it seemed clear that the two presidents were keen to give a form of intimacy in each other’s talk about the other.
Erdogan describes Trump as a “dear friend”, noting that “he will be happy to host Trump in Türkiye during the nearest opportunity”, or to meet the American president’s invitation to visit the United States.
As for Trump, he described his relationship with the Turkish president as “excellent during the four years of his first term between 2016-2020”.
The US President, Benjamin Netanyahu, surprised him while receiving at the White House last April by saying: “I have a wonderful relationship with a man named Erdogan – I admire him, and he admires me, and this causes a media uproar. We have never faced any problems, although we passed a lot.”
It is noteworthy here that the National Intelligence Academy in Turkey, affiliated with the MIT Intelligence Service, in a report issued last November, that is, as soon as Trump succeeded in the presidential elections, the impact of personal relations between him and Erdogan on the dismantling of the crises of the two countries.
The report said that Trump has the ability to overcome American institutions in building a distinguished relationship with the allies.
The report also described Erdogan’s relationship with Trump during the first period of the American president, with “the correspondence of chemistry”, but he warned of Trump’s “individual” and his border fluctuations in his decisions he takes in isolation from his aides.
Hence, there are questions about the impact of this relationship on resolving the crises of the region and in the heart, including the war in Gaza, in light of the very bad humanitarian conditions that the sector has reached, as well as the future of the Syrian state in the post -Assad stage, and what Washington can provide to support the new government, as well as Turkey’s ability to support Trump’s vision in the necessity of ending the Russian -Ukrainian war.
The questions also extend to the ability of these personal relationships to make progress in the defense defense file.
Gaza .. stop the war
The American engagement with the Israeli war in Gaza is one of the deep points of disagreement between Ankara and Washington, since the start of the Flood of Al -Aqsa in 2023.
Hence, most Turkish officials’ talks with their American counterparts, the most recent of which is Erdogan-Trump’s connection, focuses on ending the war, introducing aid, and setting a vision for reconstruction.
Therefore, it is hoped that the two presidents’ relationship will make a clear breakthrough in the biased American position, and not limit it to separate statements about the introduction of humanitarian aid, which is quickly run over under the Israeli militant policies.
But it is not easy due to the different Turkish vision of the solution, not with the United States alone, but also with some regional countries.
Ankara refuses to liquidate the Palestinian resistance in the Strip, and considers that what it is doing is a project that resembles what the Turks did during the independence war.
It also refuses and firmly to evacuate the Gaza Strip, and demands the opening of the way for reconstruction while the residents remain, because they are the owners of the land and they are the first people in it.
Hence the multiple meetings of the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, with the leaders of Hamas, the last of which was two meetings in just eight days last April, in Ankara and Doha, respectively, to coordinate common positions.
Then Fidan came out with statements, confirming the movement’s openness to a long truce with Israel, in exchange for stopping the war, but Netanyahu refused this.
However, it is expected that Türkiye will invest the two presidents’ relationship to push Trump to compel Israel to introduce humanitarian aid and reach a solution that would end the war and reconstruction.
Syria .. lifting sanctions
In his meeting with Bintaho last April, Trump revealed that he said to Erdogan in a private conversation: “Congratulations, you did what no one could do for two thousand years. You have seized Syria.”
This belief in Trump made the Syrian file present and strongly in the talks of Turkish officials with their American counterparts, as it was present in the recent contact of the two presidents.
Turkey has started its contacts early with the American administration even before it officially received its duties, to discuss the arrangement of security and political conditions in the post -Assad stage.
In his first term, Trump was inclined to the Turkish point of view, regarding the danger of fighting a terrorist organization such as ISIS, with another similar organization, the PKK.
It seemed to be an understanding of the military work implemented by the Turkish forces in northern Syria, but the pressure of the US Secretary and Foreign Ministry at the time prevented Ankara from obtaining the desired results.
In the current state of Trump, and in parallel with the developments in Syria, Türkiye hopes that the file of security threats in northern Syria will be closed permanently.
It appears that the bilateral talks between the two presidents reflected positively on Trump’s vision of the security situation in Syria, as the American forces began with the withdrawal of their soldiers and equipment from their bases in northeastern Syria, coinciding with the start of the withdrawal of the Syrian Democratic Forces “Qasd” from large areas east of the Euphrates in implementation of their agreement with the Syrian government.
This void is expected to be filled by the Syrian government forces, supported by Ankara, and with the help of Turkish military points scattered in the northern regions.
Also, Ankara is working to persuade Washington, of the necessity of lifting sanctions and recognizing the current political system, in parallel with similar Qatari and Saudi efforts, which led to important breakthroughs in this regard, the most recent of which was announced by the Syrian Finance Minister, Mohamed Youser Burniyah, that Qatar provided a grant of Syria worth 29 million dollars per month for a period of three months, to pay the salaries of civil workers in the public sector. Pointing out the grant to an exception to US sanctions.
“Katsa” penalties
The Trump administration was the first sanctions against Ankara in December 2020, according to the law to punish countries cooperating with the opponents of the United States known as “Caatsa”, due to Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S-400 defense system.
The US sanctions for the same reason also extended to Türkiye out of the F-35 ghost plane manufacturing project.
Since then, Turkish attempts have not stopped to lift these sanctions, but to no avail with their adherence to the possession of the system until now and not to neglect them.
Now Ankara hopes that the positive atmosphere that envelops the relationship of the two countries of the two countries will invest, to raise these sanctions, especially after its success in June 2024 in signing a deal with the United States worth 23 billion dollars, to buy 40 F-16 fighters, in addition to updating its current air fleet.
Türkiye’s opponents in Washington
In his first term, some members of the American administration succeeded in reducing the positive impact of personal relations between Trump and Erdogan.
The issues of the Gulen organization remained, the Pentagon supported the Labor Party and its branches in northern Syria, and others without real solutions.
Rather, this relationship did not prevent Washington from issuing sanctions against Ankara and some of its officials; Because of Türkiye’s arrest of Reverend Andrew Bronson for more than twenty months, the Turkish director of the “creation” bank was imprisoned in the United States, on charges of violating US sanctions against Iran.
Given the composition of the current US administration, we will find that it includes influential officials holding conservative ideas from the far right, such as Defense Minister Beit Higseth, Foreign Minister, Marco Rubio.
Or they have negative visions towards Türkiye and its president, such as the Director of the American National Intelligence, Toulcy Gabbard, who said in a speech delivered in 2020:
“Türkiye has supported the terrorists of the state and al -Qaeda from behind the scenes for years. Erdogan is not our friend. It is one of the most dangerous dictators in the world, and it is not the right of the American government and the media to help this Islamist who suffers crazy.”
In conclusion, despite Trump’s need for a balanced Turkish role to contribute to ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, translating his distinguished relationship with Erdogan into concrete policies and procedures is still surrounded by doubts in light of the presence of personalities in the White House carrying strict ideas towards Muslims in general, and towards Türkiye and its president in particular.
The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al -Jazeera.