EXPLANATION
As the region anticipates Iranian response to Israeli assassinations, the United States is moving forces into the region.
The United States has deployed a naval strike group to the eastern Mediterranean amid heightened tensions following Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The killings took place within hours of each other on July 30 and 31, and Haniyeh’s death has also been blamed on Israel, although the latter has not officially claimed responsibility.
The deployment follows a call Sunday between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in anticipation of an Iranian counterattack.
In a statement released by the Pentagon after the incident, Austin “reiterated the United States’ commitment to take all possible measures to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of the posture and capabilities of U.S. military forces throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.”
What are the issues?
Observers fear that any retaliation for the two assassinations, by Iran or its ally Hezbollah, could trigger a broader regional war and potentially lead the United States to back its ally Israel.
The deployment of the strike force comes at a time when critics of the US administration are calling on it to use its influence to force a ceasefire, US news channel CNBC reported. US President Joe Biden has also criticized the conduct of the war on Gaza, calling Israeli operations in the enclave “excessive” in February and repeatedly saying that “too many” civilians had been killed. However, this has not led to forceful attempts to get Israel to stop its assault on Gaza, such as a ban on arms sales or other sanctions.
Many countries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan and several Western countries, have urged their citizens to evacuate Lebanon, fearing that the country could be heavily attacked by Israel if it were to be hit by direct strikes. Simultaneously, several airlines have suspended flights to Israel, Jordan and Lebanon.
What is the objective sought by the United States in deploying the naval task force in the region?
According to Gordon Gray, a professor and former US ambassador, “the announcement of the deployment of the carrier strike group is intended to deter Iran rather than escalate the situation.”
Biden had ordered a similar deployment to the Eastern Mediterranean last October, when one of the world’s largest aircraft carriers, the USS Gerald R Ford, visited the region, where it was joined by ships and spy planes from the United Kingdom. At the time, US officials portrayed the deployment as an attempt to deter Hezbollah and Iran from “taking advantage” of Israel’s war on Gaza, which was then in its early stages. Israel has now killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians in that war.
Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said: “The United States is sending a clear signal to Iran that it will participate in any future fight that might deter Iran from carrying out significant retaliation against Israel.”
What ships has the United States deployed?
The strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its squadron of F-35C fighters, was already heading to the area, where it was to replace the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt. Austin now ordered it to increase its speed. In addition, the USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered submarine carrying guided missiles that was already present in the Mediterranean, was deployed to the area.
Is this an escalation?
HA Hellyer of the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) believes the show of force is aimed at limiting the risk of escalation, without the United States having to confront the behaviour of its ally Israel and its war on Gaza.
However, limiting the risks of escalation while adopting a non-interventionist approach to the Israeli government’s actions is likely to be difficult, particularly when it comes to a state that has proven to be “incredibly reckless,” Hellyer noted.
“Lack of accountability guarantees impunity, and (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu has broken pretty much every rhetorical red line Biden has set, and will continue to do so, until he thinks there will be real consequences,” he said.