The idea that US President Joe Biden’s suspension of heavy weapons deliveries to Israel was a sign of discontent with Tel Aviv appears to be in question as two US officials confirm his latest program arms aid package, worth about $1 billion, was submitted to Congress for consideration. process.
Biden last week ordered the suspension of a shipment, including 1,800 American-made 2,000-pound (907 kg) bombs, over fears that they would be deployed by Israel in a ground invasion of the city of Rafah, in southern Gaza.
The 2,000-pound bombs are among the heaviest in the U.S. arsenal, with a blast radius of 365 meters (1,200 feet), generating razor-sharp shrapnel capable of ripping the human body to shreds and unarmored vehicles.
Another arms delivery, including dozens of Boeing F-15 fighter jets, is also on hold as Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, awaits further information on the Israel’s planned use of these planes.
Still, the approved shipment, which includes tank shells, mortars and armored tactical vehicles, appeared to reinforce comments by U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Monday suggesting that U.S. concerns about the bombs of 2,000 pounds was more about their potential for significant casualties than any concern about Israel’s intention to launch a ground attack on Rafah.
Rafah
As the Israeli assault on Gaza entered its eighth month, Rafah was the last town in Gaza yet to be attacked by land.
According to UNICEF, it was a refuge for around 1.5 million civilians – about half of whom were children – who had fled the destruction of other cities, such as Gaza and Khan Younis, razed by Israeli forces.
Humanitarian organizations set up their bases in Rafah, which was considered the safest area in Gaza, despite regular Israeli air attacks.
However, since Israel stepped up its attacks on Rafah earlier this month – claiming it was a stronghold for Hamas’s remaining battalions – thousands of Palestinians have fled eastern Rafah to an “area humanitarian” under-equipped at al-Mawasi announced by the Israeli army.
The Israeli attack on Rafah was strongly criticized by some of its allies. However, the United States’ pause on a single shipment of lethal munitions has so far been the only practical expression of international concern.
A US report on Israeli violations of international law during the war found that it was “reasonable to assess” that US weapons were involved in the violations, given Israel’s extreme dependence on weapons made in the USA.
A report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute concludes that in the nine years leading up to 2022, 68% of Israel’s weapons were supplied by the United States.
The rest was provided by Germany and a host of Western allies.
Contacted by Tel Aviv Tribune, Germany’s Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action, which is responsible for arms exports, said it would continue to review export licenses on a case-by-case basis.
The US State Department has so far declined to comment.
Blurred lines
While Biden has declared the full invasion of Rafah as a diplomatic “red line,” some believe it is designed to be a line he will not have to enforce.
In an interview with Israeli media on Sunday, US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew stressed that the Israeli assault on Rafah had not yet reached “the area where our disagreements lie.”
“I hope we don’t end up with real disagreements,” he said of the gradual assault on the city so far.
So far, Israel is attacking parts of the city, issuing evacuation orders to specific neighborhoods before entering them.
“So far, Israel appears determined to wage a campaign against Rafah in the same, rather brutal, manner as it did in Khan Younis and Gaza City,” HA Hellyer, a Middle East security authority. -Orient at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Royal United Services Institute, said.
“There’s nothing to say that Israel won’t settle for smaller munitions anyway, and (the Israeli military) attacked Rafah before and after Biden’s speech,” Hellyer said.
“However, to avoid embarrassing Joe Biden and his “red line,” the Israelis appear to be moving more slowly and with less reliance on massive weaponry, but the result is the same. »
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may also have concerns closer to home as he tries to navigate warnings from international allies and exhortations from far-right members of his cabinet, who are pushing for an attack on Rafah, regardless of ceasefire talks elsewhere.
“My feeling is that Netanyahu attaches much more importance to the collapse of his government due to the far right he included in his cabinet, than to the loss of support from Joe Biden, which I do not I still don’t see it happening,” Hellyer said.
Stocks
The Israeli bombardment of Gaza – and the deaths of more than 35,000 Palestinians – was supported by US arms supplies.
A 10-year deal, signed in 2016, allows for the export of military aid worth $3.3 billion per year starting in 2018, plus an additional $500 million per year for defense systems Aerial.
Congress last month approved an additional $26 billion in aid to Israel, including $5 billion to bolster air defense, as well as “bundled” arms deliveries that fall below the threshold required for control. of Congress.
All this means that even though Israel’s actions are now openly linked to the suspension of certain arms deliveries, the overall partnership remains strong.
According to Senator Jim Risch, a leading Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, millions of dollars in military aid have been earmarked for Israel, including Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMS), used to converting “dumb” bombs into precision weapons.
Tank shells, mortars and armored tactical vehicles are all ready and awaiting approval before shipping.
“(T)his delay is likely more of a political signal to Israel to avoid the use of high-payload munitions that have caused devastating civilian damage in Gaza, rather than a measure to impact the operational situation immediately in Gaza,” Ari said. Tolany, director of the Security Assistance Monitor at the Center for International Policy, based in the United States.
“We don’t have a good idea of what Israel still has in its stockpiles that are publicly available. »
Despite the pause in heavy weapons shipments, an attack on Rafah is still likely and would inflict even more horror on its traumatized population, many of whom have already been repeatedly displaced, losing their homes and family members, before seeking some respite in the city. .
“They have more than enough stockpiles of these weapons to invade Rafah,” said Francis Boyle, a human rights lawyer and professor at the University of Illinois.
“They have already invaded Rafah at the Philadelphia Corridor (a demilitarized zone between Egypt and Rafah). Biden basically disclaims any responsibility for what promises to be a massacre modeled on (the 1995 massacre of Bosniaks in) Srebrenica.