A delegation from the Palestinian group Hamas landed in Cairo on Saturday evening to “listen to the results of the negotiations conducted so far” between the mediators – Egypt, Qatar and the United States – and Israel.
Observers are reluctant to call this a sign of hope, as they increasingly believe that ceasefire negotiations in Gaza between Hamas and Israel are about to fail.
Negotiations of one form or another have been underway virtually since October 7, the day Israel launched a war on Gaza that killed more than 40,000 people and destroyed most of the Gaza Strip – apparently in retaliation for a Hamas attack on Israel that killed 1,139 people and took more than 200 prisoners.
A deal appeared close in May when the United States announced it had a draft proposal agreed to by all parties and approved by the U.N. Security Council on June 10.
Last Minute Failures
Hamas accepted the proposal, stressing that it wanted the Israeli army to withdraw from Gaza, the return of residents to their homes in northern Gaza from which they had been driven, an international commitment to rebuild Gaza and the release of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
Israeli officials continued to make statements indicating that the war in Gaza must continue – and the Israeli army invaded Rafah.
The United States, however, maintained that Israel had accepted the proposal and that the stumbling block was Hamas, which was blocking any progress.
Just when a ceasefire agreement seemed within reach, it disappeared.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained his rhetoric of continuing to fight until “Hamas is completely defeated in Gaza,” a goal long dismissed as unrealistic by parties on both sides.
He also presented new demands: that Israel remain in the Philadelphia Corridor adjoining Egypt’s Sinai, that checkpoints be set up to “screen” people trying to return to their homes in northern Gaza, and that complete lists of all living captives that Hamas intends to release be provided.
Senior Israeli officials have said Netanyahu’s demands would sabotage the negotiations, and mediators have refused to convey them to Hamas.
Egypt has refused Israel’s request to allow it to remain in the Philadelphia Corridor, which would violate the Camp David Accords between the two countries.
Blinken’s rhetoric
The US proposal follows on from previous plans, sticking to a three-phase process that would release all Gaza captives in exchange for prisoners held by Israel, establish a “lasting calm” leading to a complete ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and the eventual opening of the crossings.
“We had a proposal that (U.S. President Biden) put forward in late May that was quite detailed and passed in the U.N. Security Council as a resolution (with) global support,” said Matt Duss, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC.
“Yet we have seen several sets of new conditions added by Netanyahu who, although Biden said Israel supported it, made it clear he did not support it.”
Netanyahu was criticized by Israeli negotiators for undermining the talks after a local TV channel reported comments he made that Israel would not leave the Philadelphia or Netzarim corridor – which the Israeli military created to separate northern and southern Gaza – “under any circumstances.”
In recent days, U.S. officials have traveled to the region to try to resolve sticking points over a “transition proposal” that would include withdrawal plans.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, however, did not specify whether the proposal included a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, as previous proposals had suggested. But he stood by his earlier assessment about who was holding things up.
“In a very constructive meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu today, he confirmed to me that Israel supports the rapprochement proposal,” Blinken told reporters after a 2 1/2-hour meeting with Netanyahu on Monday. “The next important step is for Hamas to say ‘yes.’”
Blinken’s claims were rejected by Hamas, which said it wanted to stick to the deal.
“The Israelis have backed down on the points included in Biden’s proposal. Netanyahu’s statements about his agreement with an updated proposal indicate that the US administration has failed to convince him to accept the previous deal,” Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan told Tel Aviv Tribune on Monday.
And while Blinken has publicly claimed that Netanyahu is on board with the deal, Israeli media have reported that things are playing out differently behind the scenes.
US supports Netanyahu ‘for inexplicable reasons’
The Biden administration’s continued support for Netanyahu, despite his perceived stubbornness, has left many analysts perplexed.
“We are in a surreal situation where Hamas and Israeli security officials are saying that Netanyahu is the one blocking Biden’s ceasefire proposal,” Mohamad Bazzi, director of Near Eastern studies at New York University, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“We also see that Netanyahu has publicly rejected key elements of the ceasefire as Blinken has described the deal… but at the same time, both (US President Joseph) Biden and Blinken insist that Netanyahu supports the current deal and that Hamas is the stumbling block.
“So we end up with the US administration covering for Netanyahu for inexplicable reasons.”
While Israel’s stated goal for the negotiations is to recover prisoners held in Gaza, Netanyahu’s alleged sabotage of the talks leaves some wondering whether he is actually interested in a deal.
According to Israeli government estimates, 109 prisoners remain in Gaza, and U.S. officials believe that half of them are still alive.
Families whose loved ones have disappeared in Gaza regularly demonstrate and call on their government to rescue the captives.
“There’s a very good case to be made that Netanyahu doesn’t want a ceasefire at this point,” Bazzi said. “In many ways, why would he when the United States will impose no cost on him for being the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire?”
‘Sentenced’
Biden and his administration have criticized Netanyahu in the past.
In April, Biden said Netanyahu was making a mistake in his handling of the Gaza war.
In early June, Biden suggested that Netanyahu was prolonging the war for personal and political reasons.
Despite criticism, the Biden administration has refused to condition its support on Netanyahu’s government.
“Biden has two very important levers, the first being the maintenance or conditioning of military aid and the second is political cover in the UN Security Council and in other international bodies… and he does not seem to use them,” Bazzi said.
The US’s failure to hold Netanyahu and Israel to account has raised questions about their responsibility for the destruction of Gaza.
“Biden is completely complicit in this war that would not have been possible in the first place, … without the full support and cover of the United States,” said Gilbert Achcar, professor of development studies and international relations at SOAS University of London.
“These negotiations were doomed from the start… it’s a waste of time,” Achcar said.
“The Biden administration is more about showing that it is doing something. But I think they know very well that this is not going to lead anywhere, because the gap between what Netanyahu wants and what Hamas is asking for is too big to bridge.”