Fears of potential terrorist attacks in Europe ran high during the holiday season. But are these concerns founded?
After years spent in the shadows, the terrorist group Islamic State (IS) is once again in the spotlight.
European countries have beefed up security over the Christmas period amid fears of terrorist attacks and violence linked to Israel’s war in Gaza. Last week, ISIS claimed responsibility for deadly attacks that left 84 dead in Iran.
Is the once-powerful group making a comeback?
An unexpected “blessing”
At its peak, between 2014 and 2015, ISIS established its own caliphate, controlling large parts of Iraq and Syria and unleashing deadly terrorist attacks across the world.
Since then, its presence and power have been significantly reduced.
Yet, the group remains a threat, particularly in the Middle East, Afghanistan and parts of Africa.
“ISIS has adapted and evolved since the height of its power in Iraq and Syria, seizing opportunities and attacking strategically to create change.“, Kate Zimmerman, doctoral candidate in the Department of War Studies, tells Euronews.
“The safe haven enjoyed by its Afghan branch has allowed IS Khorasan to strengthen itself and now export its terror to the region, with aspirations to expand to the West.”
ISIS Khorasan is an offshoot of ISIS that operates in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.. It was formed in 2015 when a faction of the Pakistani Taliban, unhappy with their leadership, pledged allegiance to ISIS. The terrorist group is known for its brutality and attacks against civilians, government forces and religious minorities.
Although ISIS never disappeared, Lorenzo Vidino, director of the program on extremism at George Washington University, told Euronews that since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, a lot has changed for the terrorist organization.
“ISIS never disappeared, but since October 7, it has returned to the forefront“, he specifies, adding that the attack by the Palestinian militant group had been “A blessing” for ISIS.
“Historically, we have had bubbles of supporters of jihadism as an ideology over the last three or four decades in Europe. These bubbles expand and change direction when a major geopolitical event occurs“, he continues – an event such as the war between Israel and Hamas.
These events are often linked to the adoption of jihadist ideology by a greater number of peopleas well as a change in the places where they travel and commit attacks.
“What many experts think and fear is that the events in Gaza will trigger a new wave of jihadism“, declared Lorenzo Vidino, while adding that nothing was certain.
“If this were to happen, there is no doubt that ISIS would like and seek to play an important role in this process. The group must show that it is still relevant despite all the setbacks it has suffered in recent years“.
He wants to prove his relevance by carrying out attacks, he continues.
“Doing what terrorists do is the very nature of their activity“.
Is Europe in danger?
Although ISIS is a shadow of its former self, considerably weakened by bombing by the United States and its allies, the organization is still active, according to Lorenzo Vidino.
ADVERTISEMENT“We could say that if the central group, the main management, is in difficulty, its affiliates around the world are doing well and continue to carry out attacks“, he declares.
“The Islamic State brand still attracts followers“.
There are now fears that its propaganda, particularly that linked to the war between Israel and Hamas, is no longer effective in attracting recruits to Europe.
“Law enforcement intelligence services across Europe agree that these groups will try to mobilize people in Europe to carry out attacks“, adds the expert.
“Will it involve mobilizing agents who have operational ties to them or simply radicalizing random people online using their propaganda, while waiting for an isolated lone wolf to become active? I think it’s both“, he explains.
ADVERTISEMENT“But it’s obvious that’s what they’re trying to do“.
Fostering social tensions and a climate of fear is the main strategy of terrorist groups, and this is what ISIS is trying to do.
Yet, European concerns about terrorism are based on the concrete risk of a return of IS attacks.
On December 31, German police arrested three people suspected of planning an attack on Cologne Cathedral on New Year’s Eve. According to the city’s police, the suspected attackers had planned to use a car to attack the building globally. known.
The suspects were found to have links to a person suspected of being associated with ISIS who had been in custody since December 24.
ADVERTISEMENT“Virtually every group, from ISIS to Al-Qaeda, has made threats against Europe in the context of the Gaza conflict“, adds Lorenzo Vidino.
According to him, an IS subsidiary in Afghanistan could activate networks in Europe to carry out attacks.
“There is no doubt that ISIS has the capacity and intent to carry out attacks in Europe“, concludes the expert.
