US President Joe Biden has announced what he claims is an Israeli peace plan aimed at establishing a ceasefire in Gaza.
According to journalists invited to a briefing on Friday, the new plan is almost indistinguishable from previous plans agreed to by Hamas.
If successful, it would pave the way for a ceasefire in a conflict that has killed more than 36,000 Palestinians, the majority of them women and children, and angered communities around the world.
What does the plan propose?
The plan envisages three stages.
The first stage proposes a six-week ceasefire during which the Israeli army would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza. The hostages, including elderly people and women, would be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Civilians would also return throughout Gaza, with 600 trucks carrying humanitarian aid flooding the enclave daily, Biden said.
The second phase would see Hamas and Israel negotiate the conditions for a definitive end to hostilities. “The ceasefire will continue as long as negotiations continue,” the president said.
In the third phase, a permanent ceasefire would follow, facilitating the reconstruction of the enclave, including 60 percent of clinics, schools, universities and religious buildings damaged or destroyed by Israeli forces.
Who likes this?
Hamas said Friday it viewed the proposals “positively” without going into details.
Elsewhere, support for the project came from some Israeli politicians and families of prisoners, as well as the international community.
Benny Gantz, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, welcomed the proposal and called on his two war cabinet colleagues – Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant – to meet to discuss “next steps.”
Gantz had previously threatened to leave the government by June 8 if no plan for Gaza beyond the war had been agreed.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid also pledged support for the project, promising to support his Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party if ultranationalist and far-right parties withdraw their support.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also endorsed the plan, as did many of Israel’s allies, including the United Kingdom and Germany.
Who doesn’t?
Much of the opposition to the peace plan came from the Israeli cabinet.
On Saturday, Netanyahu said any initiative that did not include “eliminating” Hamas’ ability to govern and wage war was “doomed to failure.”
Netanyahu’s interpretation of the situation in Gaza is at odds with that of the Biden administration.
In his Friday announcement, Biden indicated that he considered Hamas’ presence in the enclave to have been so degraded that a repeat of the October 7 attack was impossible.
As expected, the ultranationalist and far-right members of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition – Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich – threatened to withdraw from the government and cause its collapse if the proposals were accepted.
Much of the outcome could depend on parliamentary arithmetic.
Far-right and ultranationalist parties hold 14 seats, while Gantz’s bloc has just eight, meaning the far right has more influence over a prime minister who wants to stay in power.
As for Lapid, his 17 seats are only offered in support of peace proposals.
This leaves Netanyahu dependent on the far-right bloc.
Will it be accepted then?
It’s still not clear.
The families of prisoners taken to Israel and held in Gaza are putting pressure on the government to accept the agreement, as are parts of the Israeli political class.
However, the pressure to reject the deal is just as strong and it remains to be seen whether Netanyahu chooses his own survival or the return of the captives.
On Hamas’s side, it is unclear whether the “positive” light it places on the proposal will lead to its acceptance.
Osama Hamdan, the group’s spokesman in Lebanon, said Hamas had not yet received a written proposal from the United States.
Additional reports indicate that the group is expected to wait to hear from its leaders inside Gaza, including Yahya Sinwar, before it can say whether they accept it or not.
They are likely to hesitate to express agreement before seeing whether Israel is open to the deal.
Where do the proposals come from?
The origins of the project remain unclear.
Biden took care to present this announcement as an Israeli initiative.
However, few in the Israeli government appeared to have known about it before Friday.
This proposal is also very similar to one presented as a previous Israeli proposal accepted by Hamas in late April, leading some observers to suggest that it was a U.S. signal to Israel that the administration was seeking to put a stop to end to the conflict.
Does it matter if the plan doesn’t work out?
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire.
More than a million people have fled the city of Rafah as Israel continues its deadly attack which, in two separate incidents last week, killed 66 displaced people.
Remaining health services are struggling to cope with ongoing shortages of fuel and other vital supplies and equipment, the UN said.
Before this latest proposal, negotiations to end the war, which continued through much of the fighting, appeared to have stalled.
Israeli and US negotiators will meet again on Sunday in Cairo to discuss the reopening of the Rafah crossing and potentially resolve one of the main causes of the humanitarian crisis in southern Gaza.