Speaking Monday, two days after Israel blamed Lebanon’s Hezbollah for the attack that killed 12 people in the occupied Golan Heights, White House official John Kirby reiterated U.S. support for Israel but stressed that Washington still wants a regional de-escalation.
“We believe there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution,” Kirby said, as thoughts turned to Israel’s next move and whether it would trigger a long-feared all-out regional war.
The United States has publicly stated that it does not want such an eventuality, even though it sent forces to the Middle East after the October 7 attack on Israel and the start of the war on Gaza, in a show of support for Tel Aviv.
The Middle East and the rest of the world have held their breath several times since then, including when Israel killed two Iranian generals at Tehran’s consulate in Damascus in April, followed by a telegraphed Iranian attack on Israel.
At the time, reports indicated that the United States had worked to prevent Israel from engaging in an escalation and also to prevent Israel from launching a full-scale attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the United States has been one of the mediating countries in a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although this process appears to have encountered several obstacles in recent months.
Today, after the brazen assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – which the Palestinian group and Iran blame on Israel – and the killing of Hezbollah’s top commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, all within a matter of hours, the United States’ twin goals of a ceasefire and regional de-escalation appear in tatters.
Brian Finucane, senior adviser to the International Crisis Group’s US program, told Tel Aviv Tribune that regional de-escalation would ultimately emerge after a ceasefire in Gaza, and that without a ceasefire, the risk of a broader conflict involving US forces stationed in the region was still present.
“If we want to avoid further escalation in the region, including an escalation involving American troops, we need to have a ceasefire in Gaza. That’s what’s needed to calm tensions with the Houthis (in Yemen), with Hezbollah, and to maintain the lull in attacks on American troops in Syria and Iraq,” Finucane said.
But with the recent attacks, Finucane believes the current prospects for a US-brokered ceasefire are complicated, if not compromised, in the short term.
Could the United States do more?
Many, however, believe the United States can do more to try to secure a ceasefire in a conflict in which its ally Israel has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, threatening to set an already volatile region ablaze.
“We haven’t really seen the US push for de-escalation – US policy is at odds with US actions,” said Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), a Washington-based think tank. “The US could have easily enforced these principles of de-escalation and ceasefire by stopping the arms transfer, which would have led to a ceasefire months ago.”
“Israel could not have attacked all these countries without American weapons, without American political, military and intelligence support,” Jarrar added. “Israel would not have had the capacity to push the region to the current situation, which is to a regional war.”
After Haniyeh’s assassination, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. government “had no knowledge of or involvement” in the killing, which came days after Netanyahu visited the United States.
“It’s very difficult to speculate, and I’ve learned over the years never to speculate about how one event might impact something else. So I can’t tell you what that means,” Blinken said when asked for his assessment of what might happen next.
“That may be true,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a think tank on U.S. foreign policy. “But the perception in the region is probably not going to be the same, and that’s going to be reinforced by the fact that just two days ago the head of Mossad was negotiating a cease-fire with the head of the CIA.”
US Leadership
And if the United States had no prior knowledge of the attack, what does that mean for American leadership in the region and Israel’s apparent disregard for the aforementioned American goals of a ceasefire and avoiding a regional war?
“This certainly does not suggest that Israel views the United States as a leader in the region, or that Israel is following the United States’ lead,” Finucane said.
He added that the United States faced a “fundamental dilemma” in that it supported Israel with its military power and support to deter Iran and its allies, “but at the same time wanted to avoid a regional escalation.”
“The United States needs to fundamentally rethink what it plans to do to bring about a ceasefire – what it plans to do to de-escalate the situation in the region beyond mere rhetoric,” Finucane said.
The United States is now heading into a tumultuous few months as it prepares for a presidential election that will see a transition to a new president, regardless of who wins, after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
Uncertainty over the future of the United States is in Netanyahu’s favor, analysts say, ahead of a possible presidency by Kamala Harris who could pressure the Israeli prime minister to end the war.
“Netanyahu is betting on his ability to corner the United States and essentially forcing its political leaders to constantly stand in a position where they are hugging him, and protecting and defending everything Israel does by claiming that it is self-defense,” Parsi said.
That would mean a continuation of U.S. policies that many in the Middle East blame for the unrest and violence that have devastated the region in recent decades.
“Since October 7, the blind support of the United States for Israel has clearly affected the position of the United States in the region and its ability to exert influence. The United States has completely failed to demonstrate any leadership,” said DAWN’s Jarrar. “(But) the United States has (already) lost its political capital in the region over the years, and it has been in decline since the Iraq war.”
