The International Crisis Group published a lengthy report on 10 conflicts to monitor during the year 2024. It said that the new year begins with raging wars in the Gaza Strip, Sudan, and Ukraine, while diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in all parts of the world fail.
The report indicated that more world leaders are seeking to achieve their goals through military means, and many of them believe that they can escape punishment.
Below we provide a summary of the ten conflicts mentioned in the report:
1- Gaza
The Israeli war on the Gaza Strip that followed the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, led by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on October 7, moved the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict to a new chapter.
It has become clear, after nearly 3 months, that Israeli military operations will not uproot the Hamas movement, as Israeli leaders claim, and that attempting to do so may eliminate what remains of Gaza after the widespread destruction that befell the Strip.
Overall, it seems that the continuation of the war likely does not mean the beginning of efforts to revive the peace process, as some Western leaders claim, but rather the end of any recognized political path. Never before in the history of this conflict has peace seemed so distant.
2- A possible regional confrontation
No one wants a regional confrontation, not Iran and its so-called arms in the region, nor the United States and Israel. But there are many ways in which the war on Gaza could ignite that confrontation.
Perhaps the most dangerous flashpoint in such a situation is the border between Israel and Lebanon.
With Iran on the verge of possessing nuclear capability, according to Western estimates, America finds itself faced with two choices: either accept the existence of an arch-nuclear opponent, or try to ward it off by force, and this would lead – almost certainly – to the regional confrontation that Washington wants. Avoid it.
3- Sudan
The war that broke out last April between the army and the Rapid Support Forces put Sudan on the brink of collapse. While the specter of genocide once again looms over the Darfur region in the west of the country, the Rapid Support Forces – responsible for many of the killings, according to human rights reports – may be on the verge of taking over the country.
In this case, more urgent diplomacy is needed. Sudan’s collapse may have repercussions on the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea. The window for a solution is about to close.
4- Ukraine
The Russia-Ukraine war has turned into a political “football” in Washington, but what happens on the battlefield will determine Europe’s future security.
If Moscow seizes more Ukrainian territory, parts of the former Soviet republics would be next on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s list.
The attack, which has driven the army from areas in northeastern Myanmar, and fighting elsewhere pose the biggest threat yet to the junta that seized power nearly three years ago.
The fighting resulted in the internal displacement of more than 2.5 million people, in addition to hundreds of thousands of the Rohingya Muslim minority who were expelled by the army in 2017. It is difficult to see the crisis ending any time soon.
6- Ethiopia
The past year, 2023, began with good news for Ethiopia, but ended it with much to fear. The “brutal” war in the Tigray region (north of the country) was about to end.
Last August, Amhara rebels briefly seized towns in their region in northwestern Ethiopia. The Amhara rebellion is not the only source of headache for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. He is also facing an entrenched insurgency from Oromo nationalists in the center of the country.
As distrust grows in the troubled relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, any accidental clashes between the two neighboring countries could portend a costly confrontation.
7- The African Sahel region
In 2023, Niger’s army overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, a close friend of the West, which contributed to the consolidation of military power throughout the Sahel region, where the countries of Mali and Burkina Faso, in turn, witnessed two military coups.
The wave of coups heralds a new chapter in the crises that the region has been suffering under since 2012 at the very least.
8- Haiti
The people of Haiti hope that foreign forces led by Kenyan police, scheduled to arrive as early as 2024, can confront the hyper-violent gangs that have torn the country apart over the past few years.
9- Armenia and Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan’s lightning attack in Nagorno-Karabakh last year led to the displacement of all residents of the disputed territory with Armenia.
The question in the new year is whether Azerbaijan will go further, or whether Armenia will finally find a way to establish peace, with optimism that the talks that began in late 2023 will result in some progress.
10- The United States and China
In their meeting held last November, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping sought to reset what was a sharp decline in relations between the two countries. But their core interests still clash in the Asia-Pacific region, and elections in Taiwan and tensions in the South China Sea may be a test of a breakthrough in relations.
Perhaps the greatest danger now is the possibility of a clash between Chinese and American aircraft or ships. The Biden administration – especially in this election year – may issue statements that anger Beijing, as anti-China American legislators may put on the congressional table draft laws that conflict with the “one China policy” related to Taiwan.