Beirut, Lebanon – Yemen’s Houthis will not be deterred by US-led attacks on them in retaliation for their attacks on Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea, and may in fact be further emboldened, analysts say.
The United States and the United Kingdom on Thursday evening bombed several sites in Yemen that Washington said were Houthi installations, a day after shooting down missiles fired by the Yemeni group into the Red Sea. These bombings are the first time during this war that the United States or its allies have attacked Yemeni territory.
But the Houthis could benefit from greater regional and national visibility, as the world’s only superpower takes on a group that is not internationally recognized like Yemen’s government, although it controls large parts of the country , say the experts.
On January 10, the United States and the United Kingdom repelled 21 drones and missiles in the largest operation by the Houthis in the Red Sea traffic. And the United Nations Security Council, along with the world’s most powerful nations, focused on attacks on Red Sea shipping, in a resolution that condemned the Houthis – but also highlighted their growing influence in as a force to be reckoned with.
“The Houthis actually won this confrontation the day they started it,” Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Popular in Yemen
In Yemen, Ansar Allah, the official name of the Houthi group, controls the west, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that leads to the Red Sea, and is fighting for territory against Yemen’s internationally recognized government and its domestic allies .
The group’s actions in the Red Sea, as well as its messages of support for the people of Gaza, have been extremely popular among Yemenis, boosting recruitment and allowing it to mobilize massive rallies in support of the Palestinian people.
The Houthis say they intercept Israel-bound or Israeli-owned ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to pressure Israel into allowing at least sufficient humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, that Israel has pounded over the past three months.
Israel’s war on Gaza, following an attack by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups on October 7, has killed more than 23,000 people, mostly civilians, some in direct bombing and others due to conditions disastrous into which the enclave was plunged by the Israelis. Actions.
The Houthis gained worldwide attention on November 19, when they commandeered the cargo ship Galaxy Leader and subsequently turned it into a tourist attraction.
While global shipping has been deeply affected, with major shipping lines avoiding the Red Sea altogether, Houthi interceptions have caused minor damage to most ships and avoided killing or injuring anyone on board.
On December 31, four Houthi ships attempted to commandeer a ship crossing the Red Sea when U.S. Navy helicopters attacked them, killing 10 Houthi fighters and sinking three boats.
In early January, the Houthis began using unmanned surface ships. In the past, the group used them as drone boats that exploded on impact with other ships. Even though the group has changed tactics, it has not stopped its activity in the Red Sea, on the one hand, analysts say, because its declared objective has not been achieved, and on the other hand, because he does not fear American threats.
“The Red Sea front has entered a new stage: the direct confrontation between the Houthis and the United States,” Eleonora Ardemagni, a senior research associate at the Italian Institute of International Political Studies, told Tel Aviv Tribune. “The United States and the Houthis are respectively testing the effects of their actions and how far they are willing to go. »
Air attacks will not deter Houthis
In response to an ultimatum from Washington and its allies to stop activities in the Red Sea or face their military wrath last week, the Houthis held a huge rally in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, where the group’s leaders declared themselves ready for an American escalation in grandiloquent speeches.
“Everything worth hitting has been hit by the Saudi coalition for the past nine years,” al-Iryani said, referring to the war waged against the Houthis by a Saudi-led coalition Saudi Arabia which began fighting the Houthis in 2015 after their overthrow. President Abd-Rabbo Mansour Hadi, internationally recognized head of government.
“I don’t think (US attacks on Houthi targets) will have a deterrent effect on the Houthis,” said Raiman al-Hamdani, a researcher at the ARK Group and former visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Tel Aviv Tribune. “Given the rhetoric of the Houthis, who always blame the United States and Israel for the problems that exist in Yemen and the Middle East in general, I think they would be quite satisfied. »
From a strategic point of view, al-Iryani explained, the Houthis should also feel quite comfortable. The Houthis’ mobile infrastructure should make it more difficult for the Americans to choose targets, he said.
Make peace with the neighbors
Meanwhile, the Houthis are still in talks with neighboring Saudi Arabia over a long-term ceasefire and analysts say they could try to strengthen their influence through the show of power on the Red Sea.
The Saudis are keen to prevent an escalation in Yemen, and in December Riyadh urged the United States to show restraint. Saudi Arabia reiterated its message of caution after Thursday evening’s attacks on Yemen.
Instability nearby would not benefit Saudi Arabia, whose oil infrastructure has been hit hard in previous Houthi attacks. The Saudis may also have longer-term considerations in these negotiations, as it would benefit them to build relations with the Houthis and may be on track to recognize them.
“Formal recognition is perhaps the most important thing for (the Houthis),” al-Hamdani said. “The group’s main concern is to continue to consolidate its power over the country.”
Until now, the Houthis have benefited from Iranian support as part of their regional Axis of Resistance, alongside Hamas, Hezbollah and a network of militias in Iraq and Syria. “The Houthis… have developed a relationship with Iran that many analysts see as rivaling that which Iran has with Hezbollah,” Yemen researcher Nicholas Brumfield told Tel Aviv Tribune.
But analysts say the group should not be seen as an Iranian proxy and that in the future the Houthis may seek to recalculate their regional alliances. “It would be better for them to be close to the Saudis,” al-Hamdani said, adding that they could benefit more by “relying on (Saudi Arabia’s) financial resources rather than depending on the Iran for arms.”
The Houthis’ identity as a Shiite group does not mean they will fall under Iranian influence by default: the long historical and cultural ties between Yemen and Saudi Arabia may play a central role between the two.