Israeli tanks rolled into downtown Rafah and its army announced that it now controls the entire Philadelphia Corridor, the strip of land that runs along Egypt’s border with Gaza’s Rafah governorate.
This violates the terms of its treaty with Egypt which states that the strip, also known as the Salah al-Din Axis, is a buffer zone that Egypt oversees on its side of the border.
Israel had been threatening a “full-scale” ground invasion of Rafah for months, much to the dismay of the international community, which warned that such an attack would constitute a “red line.”
Then, just over three weeks ago, on May 6, Israel declared plans to carry out a “limited operation” against Hamas targets in eastern Rafah.
He stepped up air attacks on the area and ordered some 100,000 displaced Palestinians huddled there to be evacuated to al-Mawasi which, aid organizations said in horror, cannot support human life.
The next day, he took control of the Rafah land crossing, sounding the death knell for aid deliveries to the besieged and battered Gaza Strip and its starving population. Things have only gotten worse for the 1.4 million people seeking refuge in Rafah.
Who owns this line?
Israel appears to have crossed all Western “red lines”, with no apparent consequences or remorse for Palestinian victims, experts told Tel Aviv Tribune.
In February, all members of the European Union – except Hungary – warned Israel against a large-scale military operation on Rafah and the appalling human cost it would bring.
In March, US President Joe Biden said a major Israeli invasion of Rafah would violate his self-declared “red line” unless arrangements were made to protect and evacuate civilians.
As Israel intensified its airstrikes and ground assault on Rafah, Israeli lawyers told the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on May 17 that it would be a “localized” operation.
Israel then captured part of the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, viewing the move as a threat to its national security and to the treaty between them.
As its ground forces moved deeper into Rafah from the east, Israel maintained its attacks on the western flank of the governorate.
On May 26, it struck an internally displaced persons camp at Tal as-Sultan, west of Rafah; The Gaza media office said Israel had dropped a 900 kg (2,000 pound) bomb on the camp.
Israel said it fired a precision missile at a target more than a kilometer away, apparently to kill two Hamas fighters, and that the damage to the camp must have been caused by an exploding fuel tank.
At least 45 civilians – half of them children – were burned alive, decapitated or otherwise killed by the explosion.
“What I have learned from covering this conflict over the last eight months is that there is no red line on this issue,” said Mairav Zonszein, senior Israeli analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), a nonprofit organization dedicated to ending conflict around the world. .
“The red lines continue to move and that’s something to keep in mind. The (Western) ‘red lines’ are not real,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Change of the sea?
Israel’s horrific bombing of the displaced camp sparked a policy shift among its traditional allies, according to Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
He believes some European capitals have been dismayed by the way Israel has blatantly violated the ICJ’s interim order on May 24.
The ICJ ordered – 13 judges to two – Israel not to carry out an operation in Rafah that would undermine the rights of Palestinians under the Genocide Convention.
Legal experts previously told Tel Aviv Tribune that any major operation in Rafah effectively violated the ICJ order.
Lovatt agrees.
“It is difficult to interpret the latest Israeli operation in Rafah as anything other than a thumbing of the nose by Israel to the international community,” he said.
This contempt for the ICJ is pushing some of Israel’s allies to consider options that would not have been conceivable a year ago, Lovatt added.
He cited reports that the European Union may suspend its association agreement with the EU, which gives Israel preferential access to its markets.
“There will be strong opposition… from some states, notably Hungary,” he said. “But the lack of unity might not be a problem depending on the mechanism the EU uses to suspend its deal (with Israel). »
Washington’s approach?
On May 8, Biden threatened to suspend US offensive arms sales to Israel if it continued its invasion of Rafah, specifying that he would never stop “all” weapons because Israel’s defense is “critical “.
After Israel attacked the Tal as-Sultan IDP camp, the Biden administration deliberated, then concluded that Israel’s gradual invasion of Rafah and continued bombardment of the “safe zones” – towards which it had demanded the besieged civilians to surrender – did not constitute a “major offensive”. » this would trigger a response.
Omar Rahman, an Israeli-Palestinian expert at the Middle East Foreign Affairs Council, believes that the United States will never take punitive measures against Israel.
He said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity by the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, had managed to “call Biden’s bluff” throughout throughout the war.
“Netanyahu knew that a red line from the United States made no sense because Washington is incapable of holding Israel accountable for its actions,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Rahman added that every condemnation coming from Biden has been “rolled back” by his own administration, signaling to Israel that they are not as frustrated as they claim to be.
“The United States still supports the war as a war… and so I don’t think Israel is worried about the United States doing anything decisive because they have the same interests in mind” , ICG’s Zonszein told Tel Aviv Tribune.
She believes Israeli and American interests align in Gaza since they both want to “keep the pressure on” Hamas, even though the war has failed to achieve Israel’s stated goal of “eradicating ” the group.
Symbolic measures
On Tuesday, Ireland, Norway and Spain recognized Palestine as a state after condemning the Israeli attack on another displaced camp northwest of Rafah.
However, experts say the move is largely symbolic and will do little to protect Palestinian civilians.
“Recognizing Palestine does nothing on the ground,” Zonszein said. “This is a simple solution that does not match the scale of current needs.”
Rahman said no talk of “red lines” would deter Israel from its goal as long as the country did not face punitive measures for violating international law.
He added that Western states are allowing Israel to pursue what it considers its true objective: the destruction of Rafah, which is the last refuge for civilians in the Gaza Strip.
“Israel entered Rafah despite warnings and highly predictable results in terms of casualties, because closing the last lifeline to the civilian population and destroying its last refuge is essential to (Israel’s) goal of liquidating Gaza “, he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“When people like me use the word ‘genocidal’ to describe the Israeli campaign in Gaza, we are not being hyperbolic. »
