In their analysis of the ongoing Israeli escalation in Lebanon, two political analysts linked the Lebanese Hezbollah response to the Israeli occupation to the restructuring of a new leadership, and stressed the need for Iranian performance to be different at this stage.
The Lebanese Hezbollah has recently received painful blows from the Israeli occupation, the most notable of which was the assassination of the party’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli air attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Bilal Al-Shobaki, head of the Political Science Department at Hebron University, believes that Israel is focusing at this stage on two issues: The first is to prevent Hezbollah as much as possible from repairing the damage resulting from the strikes directed at it, and it has a reading that the party cannot move from the current level in The confrontation with Israel will reach another level except through the restoration of organizational ranks.
Through the continuous strikes against Hezbollah and its talk of an imminent ground attack on southern Lebanon, Israel is trying to prevent the party from catching its breath, and this is the immediate goal of the occupation, says Al-Shoubaki.
From a strategic standpoint, Al-Shoubaki explained that Israel believes “that the next stage is the stage of political arrangements, not the stage of negotiations,” and therefore, in light of the “euphoria of the victory it achieved,” it will seek to “impose arrangements on Lebanon.”
In the opinion of academic and political researcher Ali Shukr – in an analysis of the political scene in Lebanon – Hezbollah’s strategy during the next stage is divided into two levels: The first relates to the continuation of the support front, as evidenced by the increasing performance of the resistance today, which made the Israeli occupation acknowledge that the effectiveness of the resistance at this level is still It poses a danger to Israel.
The other level relates to leadership and the restructuring of the General Secretariat and the basic agencies at the field level in the first and second levels, which is a process that requires some time.
The academic and political researcher expected that Hezbollah would quickly reconstitute a new leadership, and based on that, the features of its future position would be determined. He said, “There are arrangements that are supposed to be very quick, through which a new leadership for Hezbollah will be produced.” He added, “The decision to use weapons and missiles requires… “To a new leadership and not just to traditional field procedures.”
Iran’s position
Regarding the Iranian position in light of the current developments, and whether it will respond to Israel, Ali Shukr spoke about a different stage, after the occupation’s assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah, and pointed out that this strike and the assassinations that targeted the leaders of the Lebanese party led to a strategic change.
“I believe that the Iranian performance and role must be different now,” he said.
According to the academic and political researcher, what he called the geopolitical expression used by Israel reflects what is on its mind that it is capable of weakening the axis of resistance, but this matter – the speaker adds – is related to the nature of this axis’ response to Israel, indicating that the strategic change in the region that speaks According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this will lead to the collapse of the axis of resistance, and thus the end of the Iranian role in the region.
For his part, Al-Shobaki pointed out that there is an Israeli reading of the Iranian mind stating that Iran does not want to engage in a confrontation with Israel that would lead to escalation in the Middle East region, while the Israelis see that directing a strike against Iran is an inevitable matter.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that the assassination of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah and Deputy Commander of Revolutionary Guard Operations, Abbas Nilforoushan, in an Israeli raid in the southern suburb of Beirut “will not go unanswered.”
