Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah is well aware of the Lebanese public considering widening the war with Israel due to its incessant bombing of the Gaza Strip since Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7, and that it must proceed with caution, analysts say.
Despite Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s careful mix of condemnations of Israel and words of restraint in a speech Saturday, Israel’s defense minister issued dire warnings to the Lebanese people.
Subsequently, there was a notable escalation of attacks, which had started on October 8, between the two. Hezbollah first launched attacks against Israeli positions in the Chebaa farms, which it considers occupied Lebanese land.
Many wondered whether this meant Hezbollah would enter the battle fully, but remained silent was its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, who waited weeks and then delivered two speeches in eight days.
On November 11, Nasrallah spoke with relative restraint in his second speech, telling viewers that Hezbollah would expand its attacks on Israel to match its abuses against the Palestinians or its attacks on Lebanon, but that it would not did not want to provoke a wider war.
The discrepancy between Nasrallah’s tone and Israel’s response – promising to do in Beirut what it had done in Gaza – raised questions, including whether Israeli leaders sensed some sort of hesitation or reluctance from the from Nasrallah.
Palestinian presence in Lebanon
There has been a significant Palestinian presence in Lebanon since the 1967 war, when large numbers of refugees came seeking asylum.
Palestinian fighters from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) used Lebanese territory to launch attacks against Israel, provoking retaliation and eventually becoming involved in the Lebanese Civil War from 1975 to 1990.
Thus, some Lebanese communities retain a combination of trauma and animosity toward Palestinians. But even among these groups, there is broad opposition to Israeli military actions against civilians in Gaza.
The confrontation with Israel appears to have reinvigorated Hezbollah, which appears more in tune than at any time since 2006. Yet despite this, Nasrallah and the party’s senior cadres will work to portray the group as a rational actor that will not enter not insensibly in a conflict. a wider war with Israel, analysts told Al Jazeera.
“Hezbollah does not have the same support as in 2006,” Joseph Daher, author of Hezbollah: The Political Economy of Lebanon’s Party of God, told Al Jazeera. “Socially and politically, they are much more isolated. »
In July 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought a 34-day war that killed 1,150 people, mostly Lebanese civilians. Despite the damage and loss of Lebanese lives, the war was considered a draw, causing Hezbollah’s popularity in the region to skyrocket thanks to its ability to confront Israel’s military might.
But over the next few years, a series of domestic confrontations and its intervention in the Syrian civil war eroded Hezbollah’s popular support outside its base.
In 2008, Hezbollah took control of West Beirut when the Lebanese government attempted to dismantle its telecommunications network, angering many outside its direct support base. The party also faced dissent from its former supporters during the October 2019 protests against the deteriorating situation in Lebanon.
In his speech on Saturday, Nasrallah cited “dissenting voices in Lebanon,” which could include figures like Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Druze community leader Walid Jumblatt, who have called for keeping Lebanon away from a broader confrontation with Israel.
Some observers believe Nasrallah was referring to Lebanese Forces party leader Samir Geagea.
The right-wing nationalist Lebanese Forces are staunch opponents of Hezbollah and denounce the group’s weapons as undermining the centrality of the Lebanese state and the power of the government. Although they do not pose an existential threat to Hezbollah, the group is aware of its adversary’s feelings.
“Hezbollah does not view the Lebanese Forces as a military threat,” said Nicholas Noe, who edited Voice of Hezbollah: The Statements of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. “But they are a factor in their broader thinking.”
The Armed Forces are unhappy with Hezbollah’s ability to wage a war without state support, but they and their allies have chosen not to be particularly vocal at the moment, Daher said.
Strategic calculations
“Hezbollah doesn’t want a war right now, but if it comes… then so be it,” Noe said, adding that it is important for Hezbollah to show that if the war spreads to the rest of Lebanon, it is not due to “Stupid mistakes or blatant provocation by Hezbollah”.
Whether this contributes to Israel’s bellicose language toward its northern neighbor, counting on Hezbollah to do everything it can to stay out of a major war, remains to be seen.
For now, Hezbollah’s calculations on the border with Israel are linked to military considerations in Gaza, according to Amal Saad Ghorayeb, author of Hezbu’llah: Politics and Religion.
And these calculations are strategically linked to Israel’s effectiveness in fighting Hamas, rather than the number of civilian casualties, Ghorayeb added.
If Hamas were routed in Gaza, Hezbollah fears that Israel would turn its attention to Lebanon, and its strategy has therefore been to divide the attention of the Israeli army, withdrawing the force from its entire arsenal of Gaza.
Hezbollah will continue this tactic until the fighting in Gaza stops, according to Nasrallah. But a broader war would benefit neither Hezbollah nor its partner Iran.
Many analyzes of Hezbollah have portrayed the group as beholden to Iran, but it is wrong to characterize Hezbollah as an Iranian puppet, Daher said. “Hezbollah, like Hamas, has power and is discussing its options with Iran. »
Analysts – as well as a 2019 report from the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) – agree, saying Hezbollah acts in its own self-interest, although it benefits from support, coordination and collaboration with Iran.
In short, these analyzes agree: Hezbollah is not waiting for orders from Iran, even if Iran could advise its allies to do everything they can to avoid expanding the war.
“Iran does not want to lose Hezbollah, the jewel of its regional network of influence,” Daher said.