The most closely guarded border in the Middle East is between Israel and Lebanon, the scene of eight months of tit-for-tat attacks and a possible Israeli ground attack on its northern neighbor.
Israeli officials have repeatedly threatened to step up attacks, saying they are necessary to defeat Hezbollah and repatriate the 90,000 Israelis evacuated from their homes in the north since fighting began in early October.
But as Israeli rhetoric escalates, Lebanese Hezbollah has responded defiantly, warning that such a conflict would not only have a greater impact on Israel than it realizes, but would also be felt regionally .
Analysts say Hezbollah is supported regionally by the so-called “axis of resistance,” a regional network of Iranian-backed armed groups that have begun to make their presence known since Israel has launched its brutal war against Gaza.
On October 7, a Hamas-led attack on Israel killed 1,139 people and took approximately 240 prisoners to Gaza. Israel immediately launched an attack that decimated Gaza. Hezbollah began engaging Israel across the border the following day, aiming to divide its attention on Gaza.
Support, but how?
“The axis will participate in the fight against any military action by Israel against Lebanon,” Kassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
However, when a recent news article suggested that non-Lebanese armed fighters were willing to volunteer to travel to Lebanon to fight alongside Hezbollah, a brief set of questions arose. How would the “axis” participate? Could these be groups or individuals heading randomly towards Lebanon?
A few days earlier, on June 19, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had said that the group rejected offers from armed group leaders to send their foot soldiers to Lebanon.
“We told them, ‘Thank you, but we are overwhelmed by the number of fighters we have,'” Nasrallah said in his speech, adding that Hezbollah already had more than 100,000 fighters.
If Israel shifts its focus from Gaza to Lebanon, the regional calculus could change as the scope widens.
“If the United States of America continues to support this usurping entity and attacks Lebanon and Hezbollah, America must know that it has made all of its interests in the region and in Iraq a target and a danger,” said Qais al-Khazali, the party leader. Asa’ib Ahl al Haq, an Iraqi member of the resistance axis, wrote on social media on Monday.
The term “resistance” in “axis of resistance” refers to the pro-Iranian regional network’s opposition to the United States and Israel, meaning that members could choose any number of regional targets, in addition to attack Israel from the places where they are. based on, alone or in concert.
Growing coordination
As Hezbollah has established itself as a regional power and a linchpin of the resistance axis, its influence has expanded into Syria, Iraq and Yemen, where it coordinates logistics, operations and training with like-minded groups.
“Many groups, especially those with a transnational axis bias, will be approached by Hezbollah leaders in different countries for assistance and support,” said Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative project at Chatham House.
These groups could include elements of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen or foreign and local fighters in Syria who have supported President Bashar al-Assad in his war against the country’s opposition.
“Perhaps more than any other resistance axis group, the Houthis view their relationship with Hezbollah as fundamental,” said Nick Brumfield, an independent Yemen analyst.
“Hezbollah has been the main contractor in the axis’ assistance to the Houthis for years, and as a Shiite Arab movement, there is arguably a greater affinity between the two than there is between the Houthis and Iran.”
So far, the Houthis have mainly focused on attacking ships in the Red Sea that they view as being linked to Israel. But if cross-border attacks by Israel and Hezbollah intensify, maritime traffic in the Mediterranean could also be disrupted.
On Sunday, the Houthis and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for a joint raid on four ships in the Israeli port of Haifa.
Although this attack may have created a new dynamic, the two groups have been coordinating for years. A Houthi representative has a long-standing presence in Baghdad, while some PMF groups have older historical relations with the Houthis, according to Mansour.
These groups will likely want to mobilize if Israel and Hezbollah’s involvement intensifies.
“One prospect could be to intensify joint attacks carried out by the RII and Ansarullah (the Houthis) and perhaps expand this small partnership to include more armed actors,” Tamer Badawi, an analyst, told Tel Aviv Tribune Iraqi specializing in politics and security.
“These attacks will likely be gradual against Israel, matching the pace of (Israel’s) attacks on southern Lebanon or other parts of the country.”
“If the Houthis make it more difficult and risky for ships to navigate to Israel via the Red Sea, targeting those heading to Israel via the Mediterranean… would put additional pressure on Israel,” Badawi said.
Just like in the Red Sea, attacks on ships do not need to directly affect maritime traffic to affect Israel, shipping companies and the global economy.
“As insurance costs rise, import costs rise, adding to the economic pressure (on Israel),” Badawi added.
Is a wider war coming?
It remains unclear how an expanded war between Israel and Hezbollah would play out, although both have intensified their rhetoric in recent weeks.
Israeli officials said last week that the country was ready for “all-out war” with Lebanon.
Nasrallah responded by raising the prospect of regional allies coming to the aid of Hezbollah and a threat to Cyprus if it cooperated with Israel, despite Cypriot denials.
“This is a strategic messaging response and it’s a parallel conflict to the physical combat on the ground,” said Seth Krummrich, a former special forces officer who now works for the risk management firm Global Guardian .
The message follows visits by US envoy Amos Hochstein to the region and ongoing negotiations on a possible ceasefire in Gaza. Krummrich said each side was trying to tell its domestic audience that it would not be intimidated, while also showing its opponents that “they don’t hold all the cards.”
Over the past eight months, analysts have argued that there is a possibility of a limited ground invasion or – the most likely scenario – an expanded air war in which Israel would target areas that are Hezbollah strongholds, as well as Lebanese infrastructure.
Tel Aviv Tribune’s Sanad agency did not observe any significant gathering of Israeli troops on the border with Lebanon. But cross-border attacks have intensified in recent weeks, with Israel killing a senior Hezbollah commander and Hezbollah responding with its largest barrage of rockets and missiles since October.
Meanwhile, Israel also reportedly continued to use white phosphorus in southern Lebanon.
This escalation could continue, with a “strategic escalation this week and next week as (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu travels to the United States,” Krummrich said.
As part of an expanded air war, the “axis of resistance” could continue to launch attacks against Israeli bases and targets outside the country.
In a recent video released by Hezbollah, the group showed what appears to be a series of targets inside Israel and locations in the Mediterranean Sea that it is apparently targeting.
A ground invasion, however, could lead to an influx of foreign fighters into Lebanese territory, if the group deems it necessary.
Nasrallah said the group has more than 100,000 fighters and is already “overwhelmed” by the number of troops at its disposal. But Israeli interventions on Lebanese territory could change the status quo.
“Resistance axis groups have primarily wanted to use Israel’s assault on (the) Palestinians as a way to present themselves as champions of the right side and to challenge other Arab countries that have normalized relations (with Israel), but who don’t necessarily tend to go back and forth to fight a war in southern Lebanon or Palestine,” Mansour said. “I think that changes if there is an Israeli invasion of the south. of Lebanon and Hezbollah.
“Until now, the appetite has been more national… but during an Israeli invasion or escalation, these groups will be asked to support them and that will change the equation. »
