Hezbollah’s threat to retaliate against Cyprus if it helps Israel attack Lebanon has highlighted the Mediterranean island’s delicate geopolitical position, analysts say.
Cypriots were surprised when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah mentioned them in a June 19 speech, saying that Cyprus would be considered “part of the war” if Israel used Cypriot airports and bases to attack Lebanon. .
“The Cypriot government should be careful,” he said.
For many, the announcement came as a shock.
President Nikos Christodoulides told reporters: “Cyprus is not involved in any way in military conflicts,” in response to Nasrallah’s comments.
“I don’t understand,” said Angelina Pliaka, a lawyer in Nicosia, the capital. “We are not involved and we do not support Israel. »
Cyprus’s position
The prospect of war between Israel and Hezbollah has grown closer throughout Israel’s devastating eight-month war on Gaza, as the Lebanese group has exchanged fire with Israel in an attempt to divert Israeli resources of his campaign in Gaza.
Analysts have long warned that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would involve regional countries and actors.
Yet despite rising tensions in the region since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, Hezbollah has not directly threatened Cyprus, which has close ties with Israel but also serves as a transit point for aid deliveries to Gaza.
Nasrallah’s threat highlighted Nicosia’s position as a U.S. ally and European Union member within range of Hezbollah’s missiles, as well as a country where many are increasingly concerned about arrival of desperate people seeking refuge in neighboring war zones.
The threat from Hezbollah is “a stark reminder to the Cypriot people of the situation in the country and how easily situations can go off the rails,” Harry Tzimitras, director of the Cyprus Center at the Institute for Research on Human Rights, told Tel Aviv Tribune. Peace of Oslo (PRIO).
Cyprus, known more for its beaches than its proximity to war zones, is the EU’s easternmost state and lies just 160 km (100 miles) from the Lebanese coast.
In recent years, it has sought to use this position to serve as a bridge between the EU and the Middle East, establishing close ties with Israel and Egypt while maintaining channels of communication with Iran.
“Cyprus has been quite close to Israel since 2010-2011,” Tzimitras said.
“The Netanyahu governments have notably capitalized on the fact that Cyprus has become a close political, financial, energy and military ally, as well as a friendly country, in their relations with the EU. »
Despite these ties, Cyprus has tried to keep its distance from the conflicts in Gaza and the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Christodoulides also spoke about the humanitarian corridor: “Our country is absolutely not involved in any way and is not part of the problem. »
A European state under threat
The Cypriot government was “caught off guard,” said James Ker-Lindsay, a research associate at the London School of Economics and an expert on Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean.
“The bottom line is that Hezbollah is making threats against an EU member state. There will be discussions in Europe about how to respond and calls for Iran to ease up. »
In his June 19 speech, Nasrallah pointed out that Israeli forces had conducted exercises – to simulate an invasion of Lebanon – in Cyprus two years ago because the island’s hilly terrain resembles southern Lebanon.
In a speech shortly after these exercises in 2022, he made no mention of them.
The Hezbollah threat “is probably linked” more to British bases in Cyprus than anything else, said Jack Watling, a senior land warfare researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Cyprus was a British colony until 1960 and when it gained independence, the United Kingdom retained two large military bases there.
They played a vital role in the exodus of British citizens from Lebanon during the war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
Its air force used one of its bases, RAF Akrotiri, during the invasions of Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011, as well as during airstrikes against ISIL (ISIS) in Iraq in 2014.
In January, the RAF used the base to launch strikes against the Houthis in Yemen to deter the group from attacking ships they saw as linked to Israel.
Investigative media outlet Declassified UK reported in May that the British military had sent 60 flights to Israel since the bombing of Gaza began in October, mainly from Akrotiri.
London’s Ministry of Defense refused to reveal what the flights were carrying.
The declassified UK also said the base was secretly used by the United States to transport weapons to Israel.
The British government also refused to say whether its Cypriot bases were being used to facilitate the bombing of Gaza or whether Israeli warplanes had landed there.
However, for Hezbollah, Watling said, British bases pose the most significant strategic threat emanating from Cyprus.
“I would interpret (Nasrallah’s statement) as Hezbollah trying to encourage the UK and the US to put pressure on Israel not to escalate,” he said.
“Given that Hezbollah possesses ballistic missiles, this is a plausible threat.”
The refugee question
This is not the only geopolitical problem Cyprus faces.
Cyprus has moved away from its traditional, warm ties with Russia following the war in Ukraine and has placed its fate firmly on the side of the West.
But this change could come at a price: military escalation is not the only way Hezbollah can threaten Cyprus.
Just a few hours by boat from war-torn Syria, the island has the highest rate of asylum seekers to population in the EU.
In May, Nasrallah called on the Lebanese government to “open the sea” so that Syrians could reach Cyprus.
“Cyprus was preparing for the possibility of a wave of Lebanese migrants if things went badly in Lebanon. It has already experienced significant migrations from Lebanon twice,” Tzimitras said.
“It would be extremely urgent to welcome more people, as is currently the case with migration to the island.”
Nicoletta Georgiadou, a lawyer based in Nicosia, agrees that Cypriots are less concerned about a military escalation against their island than about a wave of refugee arrivals.
“If this threat became real, it would not be through war, but through the presence of Syrian and Lebanese refugees in Cyprus,” she said.
