Beirut- Hezbollah and Israel have jumped to a new level of military confrontation, whether in type or intensity, as the specter of war looms, with Israeli Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy threatening to say, “We are approaching a decision point,” and before that, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir incited the burning of Lebanon.
The statements of Halevy, Ben Gvir and others translated Israeli anger and fear of the expansion of the area of military defeat from Gaza in the south to Lebanon in the north, as they threatened what the right-wing government had been saying for about 8 months without doing it, and Halevy repeated it, saying that “Israel is ready to launch an attack on Lebanon.”
Israel has not stopped threatening Lebanon with a deadly third war similar to the Gaza war, and to return it to the “stone age” as previously promised by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, while Hezbollah avoids using the Israeli language of intimidation as a tool of war, and adheres throughout its confrontation with it to the equation that the Lebanon front It is linked to supporting Gaza, and if Israel stops its aggression against it, Hezbollah will suspend its military attack in the north.
Likewise, Hezbollah links its level of involvement in the war to the Israeli reaction, which was confirmed by Sheikh Naeem Qassem, Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah, in his interview with Tel Aviv Tribune, saying, “The threats do not affect us. We do not want a comprehensive war, but if they are imposed on us, we are ready for them, and we will not.” We withdraw from the field,” he said, speaking about the party’s use of a small portion of its military capabilities in a way that is appropriate to the nature of the support battle.
Military escalation
In parallel, Hezbollah’s performance over the past days and weeks has been subject to monitoring after it introduced new types of weapons and heavy missiles that enabled it to shoot down aircraft with surface-to-air missiles, and it intensified the launching of drones that reached Nahariya for the first time.
The massive fires sparked by Hezbollah’s missiles in the northern regions were a shock inside Israel, and the former Israeli soldiers’ complaints commissioner, Yitzhak Brik, said that those who follow the destruction of settlements in the north realize that Israel has no real defense against Hezbollah’s missiles, missiles, and drones.
Israeli Channel 12 commented on Hezbollah video clips that showed “the depth of penetration of Israeli army positions by missiles and drones.”
Since the outbreak of the confrontation, Hezbollah’s attacks have led to the recruitment of more than a third of the Israeli army towards the north and the displacement of more than 100,000 settlers, whose fate constitutes a nightmare for Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, especially since a large segment of them are demanding that the army strike the party, wage war on Lebanon, and remove the Radwan force from the south of the River. Litani “until they return safely to their settlements,” which the government is unable to do.
If Hezbollah was responding in a proportional way to Israel – as Qassem said – then a report by the Israeli “Alma” Center, which specializes in Israel’s northern border, indicated that last May witnessed the highest intensity of fire for Hezbollah attacks, as it carried out about 325 attacks, at a rate of 10 attacks. Daily.
In the same month, there was a significant increase in the use of anti-tank missiles and drones, during which 95 anti-tank shooting incidents occurred, compared to about 50 incidents that occurred last April.
The center said that from October 8, 2023 until May 31, 2024, Hezbollah carried out an estimated 1,964 attacks, 46% of which were carried out against Israeli infrastructure and civilian areas.
War scenarios
While Israel announced military exercises it had conducted to examine the effectiveness of waging a large-scale war on Lebanon, the European Union expressed its concern on Tuesday about the escalation of tension, and called on both parties to adhere to UN Resolution 1701.
Observers have been talking about a kind of indirect regional understanding between the American and Iranian sides since the outbreak of the war, in terms of not allowing the rules to be completely broken between Hezbollah and Israel and preventing being drawn into a wide war that might ignite the region.
Writer and political analyst Ali Hamadeh believes that what was said about “a war of preoccupation and support” has begun to descend in depth and intensity to dangerous levels.
Hamada told Tel Aviv Tribune Net that what matters to Lebanon is that the border village belt is experiencing a costly war, and some of them have become almost completely destroyed, so that the human cost of nearly 400 martyrs – including 300 from Hezbollah – is “exorbitant for a limited battle.”
Israel appeared to be geographically more advanced than Hezbollah – according to Hamadeh – because the battle, which began with less than 10 kilometers, in which Israel reached the Lebanese interior up to the Sidon border, reaching 100 kilometers at the Baalbek border and the Lebanese-Syrian border, according to what he says, and therefore “Lebanon is facing a war.” Real and flexible, it may reach the level of a large-scale war at a moment when it is beyond the control of both parties and international mediators.”
But the academic and researcher in political affairs and international relations, Tariq Abboud, does not share Hamada’s opinion, because expanding the war requires factors that are not available, some of which he enumerated to Tel Aviv Tribune Net, including:
- The element of surprise is the most important element in the war, as Israel lost it in Gaza and also lost it in Lebanon.
- The firepower that Israel used in Gaza did not constitute a deterrent to Hezbollah, but rather was an incentive to put it in a position of defending itself from its surprise attacks.
- The Gaza war was not resolved militarily, despite the small size of the Strip and the siege on the resistance, which means Israel’s inability to open a comprehensive war front with Lebanon.
Therefore, Abboud describes the Israeli threats as “a prelude to an action” without achieving a comprehensive war, and that they aim to “activate specific strikes, and the party will inevitably respond to them of the same type of action.”
Abboud believes that the priority in escalating the party now is to support the Hamas movement on the political track after the Israeli initiative announced by Joe Biden, and “so that the world knows that Hamas cannot be singled out and that the Northern Front is on the lookout.”
Accordingly, Hezbollah’s firepower and quality prevent war in Lebanon – according to Abboud – “because it is a warning bell to the Israelis about the size of the cost they will incur if the party uses its entire arsenal.”
International track
While Washington is exerting pressure to restrain Israel from the deterioration in Lebanon, Western messages have arrived over the past two months from Paris and other capitals warning the Lebanese government of the dangers of Hezbollah’s escalation against Israel, according to Hamadeh.
He says, “The Lebanese government is definitely against the war, but it is in a dilemma between announcing it with an official political position that constitutes a clash with Hezbollah, and dealing pragmatically and taking topical positions that do not bypass the party, and to prevent political and internal explosion, in light of the division over its role in the war.”
Washington plays the most important and central role in the future of the confrontation between the two parties, according to researcher Tariq Abboud, as he believes that the American administration refuses to enter Israel into a second war that would exhaust it without a horizon.
Abboud says that Washington has careful calculations after Israel took its hand into the abyss, and does not want to harm its interests and cause the Middle East to explode, because a wide war with Lebanon means opening the fronts of Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
It is noteworthy that Nabih Berri, Speaker of the House of Representatives and leader of the Hezbollah-allied Amal Movement, is the one leading the communication with the American mediator Amos Hockstein, while the latter – who is the architect of the maritime demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel – expressed his intention to launch discussions to establish a long-term truce between Lebanon and Israel as soon as the agreement stops. Gaza war.