The military and strategic expert, Colonel Hatem Karim Al-Falahi, ruled out the outbreak of a comprehensive war between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, considering that the war was primarily an American decision before it was an Israeli one.
During his analysis of the military scene in Gaza and Lebanon, Al-Falahi said that opening the northern front requires American support, and Washington does not seem willing to do so due to the approaching US presidential elections, increasing Chinese influence, developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Iran’s uranium enrichment.
He added, explaining that all of these factors “affect the United States and its interests,” noting that any comprehensive war requires other parties to enter the war and target American interests.
Therefore, the military expert suggested that there would be a greater air escalation on the northern front and a limited ground confrontation within a specific area, but without sliding into a comprehensive and destructive war.
He pointed out that all experts in Israel confirm that the time is not appropriate to wage war against Hezbollah, but he added that the extreme right makes the military option possible because Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is pursuing a policy of escaping forward.
He stressed that Hezbollah possesses military capabilities far superior to that of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and has a missile arsenal and assault marches, which means that the destruction will be much greater.
Fighting in Gaza
Regarding Netanyahu’s statements that the phase of intense fighting in Gaza is about to end, the strategic expert believes that the reality on the ground is significantly different, and refutes what Netanyahu stated previously when he said that Israel is going to Rafah, south of the Strip, to achieve “absolute victory.”
He pointed out that Netanyahu’s statements clearly mean that the goals of the war have not been achieved, which are the recovery of detained prisoners, and the elimination of Hamas, its military capabilities, and its leaders, which means that “no victory at all has been achieved.”
Al-Falahi wondered about the occupation army’s statements about the imminent transition to Phase III “C,” saying, “Major ground operations with large military sectors did not achieve the goals of the war, so how can security operations based on intelligence information achieve them?”
Regarding Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant going to the United States, the military expert believes that this means that Washington is a partner in the war and has the final say, and the Israeli army lacks capabilities and capabilities if there is no American support, whether in Gaza or in the north.