Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran: What you need to know, and what’s next? | Israeli-Palestinian conflict news

EXPLANATION

The leader of Hamas was assassinated on Wednesday morning. Tel Aviv Tribune looks at what happened and what could come next.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, 62, was killed in a dawn airstrike in Iran, threatening regional stability and increasing the risk of the Gaza war escalating into a regional conflict.

Here is what we know about his assassination, the context and the reactions.

What happened to Haniyeh and when?

• On Wednesday at around 2am local time (2230 GMT), Haniyeh was killed by an “airborne guided projectile”. His bodyguard was also killed.
• He was assassinated on the first day of Iranian President Massaoud Pezeshkian’s term. Haniyeh had traveled to Tehran for Pezeshkian’s inauguration on Tuesday.
• Haniyeh was last seen at Pezeshkian’s inauguration. According to local reports, during the meeting, the Iranian president reiterated the Iranian people’s commitment to the cause of Palestinian freedom, while Haniyeh expressed gratitude for his stance.

Where in Iran did this happen?

• According to initial reports, the strike targeted “special residences for war veterans in northern Tehran” where Haniyeh was staying.
• Analysts suggest the timing and location were chosen to embarrass Tehran.
• “What happened in Tehran is a bad thing for the Iranian security apparatus… and that is why Iran will feel compelled to respond to this in some way,” Abas Aslani, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, told Tel Aviv Tribune.

Who was Haniyeh?

• Haniyeh was widely regarded as Hamas’ political leader and was a prominent member of the movement for more than two decades.
• In 2006, at the age of 44, he led Hamas into legislative elections against the Fatah movement, which had been in power for more than 10 years.
• However, he was removed from his post after the West refused to collaborate with Hamas. He was elected head of Hamas’ political bureau in 2017 and the US State Department labeled him a “terrorist” in 2018.
• In 2019, after stepping down as Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Haniyeh left the enclave and began living abroad, leading the group’s diplomatic efforts as its political leader.
• On April 10, 2024, three of his children – Hazem, Amir and Mohammad, as well as a number of his grandchildren – were killed in Gaza as the war continued.
• He has been living in Qatar for several years.

Who killed Haniyeh?

• It is unclear what exactly happened, but Hamas has accused Israel of carrying out the attack, calling it a “serious escalation.” Iran has also accused Israel of being responsible for the assassination.
• Israel has yet to respond or make a statement. However, after the October 7 attacks, which left 1,200 dead and hundreds taken hostage, Israeli leaders vowed to “crush and destroy Hamas.”
• Iran claims that the United States also bears responsibility for the killing because of its support for Israel.
• Hasan Ayoub, an assistant professor of political science at An-Najah University in Nablus, told Tel Aviv Tribune that Israel would not have dared to launch two attacks of this magnitude if “Netanyahu had not received unconditional support” after his visit to Washington earlier this month. The second attack Ayoub was referring to was the one on a Beirut suburb on Tuesday night, targeting Hezbollah commander Fouad Shakr.
• Alex Gatopoulos, Tel Aviv Tribune’s defense editor, said the intelligence used to locate and assassinate Haniyeh “suggests possible US assistance.” “Intelligence is critical. Any weapon in the world is only effective if it is guided by intelligence. It can be as precise as it wants to be,” Gatopoulos said.

What impact does this have on the Israeli war on Gaza?

• During Israel’s war on Gaza, Haniyeh was seen as a key interlocutor in ceasefire negotiations led by Qatar, the United States and Egypt. Those talks now face an uncertain future, although there are signs they are close to reaching a framework agreement.
• Analysts called the assassination a “major blow” and ended the chances of an imminent deal.
• “How can mediation succeed when one side murders the negotiator on the other side?” Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, a mediator in the talks, wrote on X on Wednesday.
• “Peace needs serious partners and a global stand against disregard for human life,” Al Thani wrote.

The political assassinations and repeated attacks on civilians in Gaza as negotiations continue make us wonder how mediation can succeed when one side assassinates the negotiator on the other side. Peace needs serious partners and a global stand against disregard for human life.

– محمد بن عبدالرحمن (@MBA_AlThani_) July 31, 2024

Who could succeed Haniyeh?

• According to some reports, two likely successors could be Khaled Meshaal, a veteran Hamas official, and Khalil al-Hayya, a senior Hamas figure who was closely associated with Haniyeh.
• “It will not be easy,” Hani al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, told The Associated Press.
• “The new political leader of Hamas will have to decide whether to pursue the military option and become essentially a guerrilla and underground group, or whether to choose a leader capable of offering political compromises – an unlikely option at this stage.”
• Yahya Sinwar, who orchestrated the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israeli cities, is expected to remain Gaza’s commander-in-chief.

What is the broader context?

• The killing comes just hours after a strike on a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut in retaliation for a rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend that killed 12 people.
• Targeted attacks on two senior Iranian-backed leaders within 24 hours have raised fears of renewed conflict in the region.
• “We must be aware that the assassination came hours after the assassination attempt in southern Beirut, as if Israel was sending a message that it is capable of reaching various leaders… whether they are from Hezbollah or Hamas in Gaza or outside Gaza, even if it means a clear violation of a country’s sovereignty,” said Ayoub of An-Najah University.

What are the reactions?

• Gaza and Palestine: Tel Aviv Tribune’s Hani Mahmoud said from Deir el-Balah in central Gaza that the killing was “significant” for the people of Gaza because he was leading negotiations that his interlocutors said would lead to a ceasefire.
• “Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank also view Ismail Haniyeh as a moderate leader, much more pragmatic than other leaders who lead the military side of the movement,” Mahmoud said.
• Hamas: “This assassination by the Israeli occupation of brother Haniyeh is a serious escalation that aims to break the will of Hamas and the will of our people and achieve false goals. We confirm that this escalation will not succeed in achieving its goals,” said Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior Hamas official.
• “Hamas is a concept and an institution, not people. Hamas will continue on this path regardless of the sacrifices and we are confident of its victory.”
• WE: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was not “aware of or involved” in Haniyeh’s death. Separately, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he did not believe a Middle East war was inevitable, but that if Israel were to be attacked, the US would help defend it.
• China: “We are very concerned about this incident and firmly oppose and condemn this assassination,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said. “Gaza must achieve a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire as soon as possible.”
• Turkey: Haniyeh’s assassination “demonstrates once again that the Israeli government of Netanyahu has no intention of achieving peace,” the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “The region will face much bigger conflicts if the international community does not take steps to stop Israel.”

For more reactions, read our article.

What happens next?

• In the short term: Haniyeh’s body will be buried in Qatar, after a funeral ceremony in Tehran. The ceremony will take place in Iran on Thursday at 08:00 (0430 GMT).
• Hamas said Haniyeh’s body would be transferred to Doha, the capital of Qatar, on Thursday. Muslim funeral prayers will be held there on Friday, before his body is buried in a cemetery in Lusail, Qatar’s second-largest city.
• The Iranian government has declared three days of public mourning, the official IRNA news agency reported.
• In the long termAnalysts say a further escalation of regional tensions cannot be ruled out. Abas Aslani, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, believes that this event will have repercussions throughout the region and beyond.
• “Right now, as we speak, an escalation seems inevitable,” Aslani said, adding that the killing comes just as Iran’s new president, Pezeshkian, has been talking about dialogue and engagement with the West.
• “We could say goodbye to the ceasefire for now, because it could escalate into a regional war. The Israeli prime minister is trying to do everything to prolong his political life. He wants to continue the war (in Gaza), and I think this is intended to have an impact not only on the processes in Tehran and the region, but also in Washington,” he said.