Hamas this week named Yahya Sinwar, the group’s top official in Gaza, as head of its political bloc, following the assassination last week of political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The killing, believed to have been carried out by Israel, has raised tensions in the Middle East to their highest level since October.
The news of the appointment came as a surprise, given that Sinwar – unlike Haniyeh, who was based in Qatar and was the diplomatic face of negotiations to secure a ceasefire in Gaza – has been operating from tunnels since October 7, when the group launched an operation in which approximately 1,139 people were killed and more than 200 were taken prisoner.
Since then, nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel in Gaza, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. The figure is likely much higher if deaths from disease, starvation and other consequences of the war are taken into account.
Haniyeh’s assassination, along with the killing of children, women, youth and the elderly in Gaza, “underlines that the resistance and its leaders are at the heart of the battle alongside their people,” Hamas said in a statement.
Hamas “remains steadfast on the battlefield and in politics,” Osama Hamdan, a spokesman for the group, told Tel Aviv Tribune. “The person who is leading today is the one who has led the fighting for more than 305 days and is still steadfast on the ground.”
Sinwar has been at the top of Israel’s hit list since October 7, and political figures in the country have repeatedly vowed to assassinate him.
“The appointment of arch-terrorist Yahya Sinwar as the new leader of Hamas, replacing Ismail Haniyeh, is yet another compelling reason to eliminate him quickly and wipe this vile organization off the face of the Earth,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter.
“(Sinwar) has been and remains the primary decision maker when it comes to reaching a ceasefire,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Washington. “(He) will decide whether to move forward with a ceasefire that will obviously help so many Palestinians in need, women, children, men caught in the crossfire… It’s really up to him.”
Consolidation of control
In 2013, Sinwar was elected to Hamas’ political bureau in the Gaza Strip, before replacing Haniyeh as the movement’s leader in the enclave in 2017.
His influence and stature within Hamas grew to the point where Israeli security officials began to take notice. According to a report in the Israeli newspaper Maariv, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly rejected plans to assassinate Sinwar. Netanyahu’s office denied the reports.
As Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Sinwar focused on strengthening the group’s military capabilities and foreign relations. He restored ties with Egypt and rebuilt relations with Iran, which had opposed Hamas in the 2011 Syrian civil war.
Sinwar’s rise may be due to his greater visibility than other Hamas leaders. For example, some analysts believe that Mohammad Deif, the head of Hamas’s military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, was one of the real masterminds – along with Sinwar – of the October 7 attack. Israel claimed to have assassinated Deif in an attack on July 13, but Hamas has yet to announce his death. Unlike Sinwar, who before October would appear in public and address Palestinians in Gaza in speeches, Deif has not been seen in public in years, and photos of him are rare.
Analysts believe that since the beginning of the conflict, Sinwar has had a strong influence on Hamas’ position in the ceasefire negotiations and the exchange of captives between Hamas and Israel.
“It’s both a message of defiance to the organization and a consolidation of its control over the movement,” Middle East Council member Omar Rahman said of Sinwar’s appointment. “Israel tried desperately to kill Sinwar and Hamas, and here they are 10 months later and he’s now the head of the movement.”
Sinwar’s choice after Haniyeh’s assassination is “symbolic,” said Hani Awad, a researcher at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies at the Doha Institute. “It shows that the entire Hamas leadership is behind Gaza and its resistance,” he added.
The Future of Ceasefire Negotiations
The Hamas political bloc runs politics while its military wing, the Qassam Brigades, engages in armed resistance against the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands.
Questions remain about how Sinwar will fulfill that role, given that he is living under siege in Gaza. It was Haniyeh who led Hamas’ negotiations with intermediaries before his assassination in Tehran.
Khaled Meshaal, who preceded Haniyeh as head of the Hamas political bloc from 1996 to 2017, was initially seen as a possible replacement, but his power has “fluctuated” and he no longer has the influence he once had, Rahman said.
Compared to the moderation of Haniyeh and Meshaal, Sinwar is seen as an uncompromising figure.
“Meshaal and Sinwar represent two different tendencies within Hamas. Meshaal is more cautious and pragmatic in his relations with Iran and its allies, while Sinwar believes that there is no alternative but an alliance with Iran and Hezbollah,” Awad said.
“Organizationally, Sinwar represents continuity rather than change,” he said, with Sinwar and Haniyeh sharing “the same foreign policy and positions toward Iran and its proxies.”
Ceasefire negotiations could still make progress with Sinwar at the helm, although the main obstacle in recent months, analysts say, has been the Israeli side.
Israel’s repeated escalations, including the assassination of Haniyeh, have made ceasefire negotiations increasingly difficult.
“In a sense, the negotiations were already a farce,” Rahman said. “Netanyahu threw up obstacles at every turn, including, of course, assassinating Haniyeh who was leading the negotiations. That said, the hostages were not held by Haniyeh, but by those (of Hamas) in Gaza. So I think there is a way to continue the negotiations, either through emissaries in contact with the Gaza leadership or by empowering a negotiator from outside the territory.”
Even though Israeli officials still have Sinwar on their hit list, his appointment as Hamas leader may not change much in the negotiation process.
“Officially at least, Israel is not negotiating directly with Hamas, saying there should be no direct negotiations with a terrorist organization,” Eyal Lurie-Pardes, a visiting fellow at the Middle East Institute’s Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs, told Tel Aviv Tribune. “In the past, any deal with Hamas was always done with the help of a third party… Sinwar’s appointment is unlikely to change Israel’s position.”
As the war enters its 11th month, Israel’s continuing campaign of devastation in Gaza and Haniyeh’s assassination have done little to diminish Sinwar’s influence over Hamas or the region.
“We can see, as a result of October 7 and everything that has happened, that it is Sinwar and the hardliners who have the upper hand,” Rahman said.