12/31/2024–|Last updated: 12/31/202405:12 PM (Mecca time)
A report by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reduced expectations of progress in negotiations to reach an exchange deal for prisoners and detainees between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel.
The report suggested that the Israeli army would expand its attacks to other areas in the northern Gaza Strip, with the aim of systematically displacing Palestinians from there, but at the same time it doubted the success of the occupation forces in defeating the Hamas movement.
The newspaper’s prominent military analyst, Amos Harel, opened his article by saying, “On the last day of 2024, it would be better, for a change, for the government to tell the public the truth. Despite the intense communications that took place in recent weeks, talks on the prisoner deal faltered again. “The chances of reaching a settlement seem slim.”
He added, “Only the intervention of United States President-elect Donald Trump will be able, in one way or another, to pull this wagon out of the mud on the cusp of his inauguration on January 20.”
Harel painted a bleak picture of the negotiations, taking advantage of the sources available to him, in addition to the scarce information published, and spoke of a large discrepancy between the two parties, which reflects the depth of the differences in the negotiations.
He explained, “Hamas is still demanding a clear commitment to the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, to be supported by maps and a strict timetable. It is also seeking to formulate agreements on criteria for the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons in the next rounds of the deal. While Israel is demanding Hamas requested to provide it with a complete and detailed list of the names of all the abductees and their condition, whether alive or dead.
He pointed to information confirming the Israeli government’s desire to reach only a partial deal, according to which only detainees included in the “humanitarian” list (women, the elderly, the wounded, and the sick) would be released, and that there is disagreement about the definition of the sick and wounded who may enter the humanitarian stage, because after a year After approximately 4 months of captivity, the condition of all the abductees became difficult, and it is possible to include them all on the list.
He comments on this, saying, “Israel has an interest in increasing the number as much as possible, because the completion of the second phase of the deal has become in doubt, and on the other hand, Hamas in the Gaza Strip… seeks to return only a limited number of abductees in order to preserve the rest on the assumption that a resumption of Fight soon.”
Despite the continuing efforts of regional mediators, especially Qatar and Egypt, to reach a solution, Harel highlights Israeli reports indicating that the situation of detainees in the Gaza Strip is getting worse, and it appears that the negotiations are not making real progress, which raises Israelis’ concerns about their fate.
Can Hamas be defeated?
While the military analyst confirms that the Israeli army is intensifying pressure on the Jabalia camp in northern Gaza with the aim of pressuring the Hamas leadership to make concessions in the negotiations, he points out that “military pressure operations have not achieved a tangible shift in the political or military situation in favor of Israel.”
He says, “This operation, the fourth in the camp since the beginning of the war, is still continuing. The results this time were more destructive and deadly. The Israeli army destroyed most of the camp’s homes, and killed more than two thousand Palestinians, while the heads of the security services continue to claim that the military pressure – which… “It escalated somewhat in the last week with the expansion of the operation to the nearby town of Beit Hanoun – effectively pushing the negotiations towards reaching an agreement.”
However, he confirms, on the other hand, that the Israeli army, despite its denial of implementing the “generals’ plan,” is continuing the process of displacing the population step by step.
Harel concludes by asking: Will Hamas be defeated? He answers that it is “very doubtful.”
He justifies his assessment by saying, “Hamas continues to have civilian control over most parts of the Gaza Strip. Hamas also controls humanitarian supplies, makes money from them, and imposes its authority over the majority of the population.”
It also refers to the increase in rocket firing from the northern Gaza Strip, in addition to the killing of a number of Israeli soldiers and officers in successive ambushes of the Palestinian resistance, and the continued targeting of Israeli forces in the Netzarim and Philadelphia axes.
He concludes by saying, “Under these circumstances, it is difficult to see how the war will end anytime soon. Israel may remain embroiled in the Gaza mud for years to come, without having a real decision, due to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s need to continue the war in order to prevent Form an official investigation committee into the failures of October 7, and continue the battle to legalize the judicial coup.”
