The German Defense Ministry has drawn up a plan in case Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalates into a NATO-wide conflict.
A secret plan from Germany, preparing for possible Russian aggression against NATO, has been leaked, revealing that the German Defense Ministry is preparing for a possible continent-wide war in Europe in the near future.
According to the German newspaper “Bild”, which became aware of the plan, the “exercise scenario” outlined by the German government provides for a reinforcement of Russian troops in Belarus and in the exclave of Kaliningradthe westernmost Russian territory, so as to exert pressure on the Polish border.
In response to this increased threat, the scenario calls for NATO to deploy its troops in eastern Europe, which would increase tensions in the region.
It is difficult to predict what will happen next, but the German government has painted a picture of what could be an escalation of the conflict, with Russia once again using Belarus as a base to launch its military operations.
A potential escalation of the war in Ukraine
In the German “exercise scenario”, which refers to a fictitious year, the Kremlin would mobilize 200,000 additional recruits in February for a new offensive in Ukraine that would allow it to make significant advances on the ground by the month of June.
In July, Russia would begin a hybrid war campaign against the Baltics. These cyberattacks against Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are believed to be based on Russia’s false claims that Russian-speaking minorities in these countries are being unfairly targeted to such an extent that intervention is necessary.
An outbreak of violence in these countries would then justify the mobilization of Russian troops sent to Belarus and western Russia between now and September.
A month later, Moscow would deploy its military to the Belarusian border with Poland and to Kaliningrad, which sits in an awkward position between Poland and Lithuania. According to the German government, it is then very likely that Russian troops will target the Suwalki corridor, a strip of land separating Poland from Lithuania and linking the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad to Belarus.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin is reportedly pushing anti-NATO arguments inside Russia, claiming NATO is preparing to attack the country.
The German government’s scenario foresees NATO deploying 300,000 troops on its eastern borders in order to deter Russian aggression, but it does not count on a reaction from the Alliance before the beginning of 2025, it is that is to say after the American presidential election on November 5, which could see the re-election of Donald Trump, skeptical of NATO.
While the document is likely to arouse public concern, particularly in Europe, a spokesperson for the German Ministry of Defense told international media that the country was not committing to any specific scenario.
“In fact, I can tell you that considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of everyday military activities, especially in training,” the spokesperson said.
The disclosure of the German plan comes just days after Swedish Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin warned his fellow citizens that their country could soon face the prospect of war.
Sweden is not yet a member of NATO, but is in the process of joining – a decision that was only made after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The country is waiting the approval of the Turkish parliament and the Hungarian government.