Gaza’s invasion … Israel between internal and external brakes policy

The Israeli army said, on Sunday, that it started wide land operations in the northern and southern Gaza Strip, as part of a new campaign called “Gideon”, despite the ceasefire negotiations, a stage described as decisive.

And Jadoun Bin Joach is a historical Jewish figure who fought a war against the armies of Canaan, Midin, the clients and others and triumphed over them. Nasr Gideon is one of the great historical victories of Jews, and Jewish religious hadiths (Micra) indicate that he had won 300 fighters over a military alliance of 135,000 soldiers, to increase the echo of the repeated legend since 1948 that Israel is a minority fighting a majority.

On the upcoming Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, the Al -Jazeera Center for Studies published an analytical paper entitled “Gaza’s invasion: Israel between the internal and external brakes” in which the researcher and academic Muhannad Mustafa discussed the decline in hopes for reaching a final or even phased agreement that responds to the interests of the two parties, especially with the presence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The goals of the upcoming process

Israel will throw from the process to be carried out to 3 goals:

• The first goal: Pressure on the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to agree to what Israel might be proposed to the armistice, knowing that Netanyahu does not agree on the condition of ending the war or withdrawing in any agreement, and that the supreme goal of the war is to eliminate Hamas.
• The second goal: The occupation of the Gaza Strip and the abolition of the withdrawal plan from it in 2005 in a practical manner, after the Knesset began a law before the war, to cancel the separation law from the Strip.
• The third goal: The displacement of the residents of the Gaza Strip, and this may be the last stage of the war, as Israel believes that the occupation of the Strip and the collection of the Palestinian population in the southern region and the limitation of the distribution of humanitarian aid to them there will be able to later be able to implement the displacement plan.

In this regard, the military analyst of the newspaper “Yediot Aharonot”, Ron Ben Yishai, indicates that the “Gideon vehicles” operation consists of 3 stages:

1. The first stage: It has begun, and is to summon the reserves, equip the military units and build the safe area in the southern Gaza Strip between the Morge axes and Salah al -Din (Philadelphia), and the establishment of logistical and engineering preparations, and it is supposed to prepare Israel during this period for the infrastructure necessary to distribute aid.
2. The second stage: Israel uses the military payment factor through the bombing and the humanitarian attraction by limiting the distribution of humanitarian aid in the areas allocated in the southern Gaza Strip, in order to deport the population from the center and north of the Gaza Strip to the south of the “Mourge” axis.
3. The third stage: It is the wide wild invasion of the occupation of the Strip and the confrontation with the Palestinian resistance factions directly, controlling geography in Gaza and remaining in it, and managing battles with the pockets of the resistance in the Gaza Strip.

Challenges to expand the military operation

The military operation “Gideon vehicles” faces many challenges, but the most important of them lies in the problem of the military reserve system. The rate of commitment to the reserve service decreased between 50% and 70%.

The reserve system crisis deepens the government’s procrastination regarding the legislation of a law of recruitment for religious Jews (Haridim), and at the same time there is an absence of any trend in the government to recruit the Haredim, also in the absence of a law that regulates the process of recruiting them.

The prolongation of the war constitutes a great burden on the reserve forces socially and economically, and there are those who feel the moral burden stemming from their feeling of the danger of expanding military operations on the lives of Israeli prisoners, and this burden has pushed the military protest petitions that were issued in recent weeks, which demand the cessation of the war and the signing of an agreement to liberate the Israeli prisoners.

It is important to note that most opinion polls concluded that about 65% of Israelis are opposed to expanding military operations, preferring to stop the war and restore prisoners.

The “Gideon” operation is facing an international challenge on humanitarian aid to the sector, because Israel refuses to enter humanitarian aid through international organizations or the United Nations and its institutions, and to overcome this criticism, the United States, in coordination with Israel, initiated an international fund under American auspices, to support humanitarian aid in the sector and only manage its distribution in the southern region.

The opportunity to reach an agreement in Gaza

The direct talks between the United States and Hamas led to an agreement to release the Israeli -Israeli soldier Alexander Alexander on the eve of US President Donald Trump’s visit to the region, which revived the path of the talks again, and Israel was forced to send a delegation to Doha to discuss an agreement or truce of the war.

But Netanyahu announced that the ceiling of talks for the Israeli delegation is a “proposal and a” proposal.

Netanyahu means a proposal and the proposal that the Israeli government adopted, which has never been announced and ever was proposed, was presented in Cairo’s talks during the month of March, and stipulates the release of half of the neighboring Israeli prisoners and the dead on the first day of a 40 -day truce, and the release of the other half on the last day of the armistice if it is agreed to stop the war.

Netanyahu sent a delegation pushing for negotiations on this proposal, which aims to thwart the talks, not their success, and the delegation is not high -level, and headed by Gal Hirsch, the Coordinator of the detainees and the missing persons in the office of the Minister of Government, who is close to Netanyahu, and does not have the confidence of the families of the Israeli detainees.

Scenarios

Based on the above can be drawn up a set of scenarios:

• The first scenario: The signing of a proposal Witkeov, which is what Israel desires, but it is unacceptable from Hamas, because it drives it to give up half of the living prisoners and lose a strong negotiation paper in front of Israel, and the Israeli conditions for stopping the war, which constitute the disarmament of the movement, will not be acceptable at least without an Israeli pledge to completely withdraw from the Strip and break the siege on the Gaza Strip.
• The second scenario: Finding a new agreement and a new proposal that combines the Israeli position on the one hand and the position of Hamas on the other hand, and stipulates the release of fewer Israeli prisoners, and the introduction of humanitarian aid to the sector and the serious discussion on stopping the war, which is a scenario that is a possible occurrence, but it needs to activate great American pressure on Israel to agree to it.
• The third scenario: The failure of the talks and the expansion of military operations in the Gaza Strip, in the event that each party insists on its positions, especially Israel, which still refuses to withdraw from the Strip and enter humanitarian aid by international organizations, which means in this case that Israel will announce the expansion of the military operation and matters return again to the zero point, and the American side may withdraw from mediation if there is no progress in the discussions.

The preferred option for Israel is the first and then the third.