Washington DC – Every day, the images emerging from Gaza remain largely the same: Israeli bombs are killing civilians. Palestinians fleeing their homes and makeshift shelters. Hamas targets Israeli forces and posts the images online.
After nearly 230 days of fighting, experts say Israel’s war in Gaza shows no signs of ending soon. So what is Israel trying to achieve? And do its objectives align with those of its closest ally, the United States?
Israel has said it seeks “absolute victory” over Hamas as it continues to receive billions of dollars in unconditional military aid from the United States.
But the country has faced criticism, particularly from its allies, for its apparent lack of a long-term strategy in Gaza, beyond unleashing firepower on the Palestinian enclave.
For some experts, however, destruction and killing are part of the goal. They say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to wage an endless war to stay in power while worsening the suffering of Palestinians.
And while the US government says it wants to end the conflict, Washington is fueling Israeli plans by maintaining its “ironclad” support for Israel, analysts say.
“What Israel seeks to achieve is simply erasure and expulsion. That’s what they want here. And they were upfront about it,” said Osamah Khalil, a history professor at Syracuse University.
“A status quo”
Palestinian rights advocates fear that the war on Gaza is slowly becoming the status quo – another long chapter of pain and dispossession in Palestinian history.
While Netanyahu has said Israel has “no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population,” senior members of his government have suggested otherwise.
Some far-right Israeli ministers have openly called for the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Other officials have advocated “voluntary migration” of the territory’s residents. And last year, the Israel Hayom newspaper reported that Netanyahu had hired one of his aides to work on a plan to “decrease” Gaza’s population.
Egypt – the only country bordering Gaza other than Israel – has fiercely opposed the mass displacement of Palestinians, which experts say would amount to ethnic cleansing.
But Khalil said Israel’s plans for mass displacement of Palestinians have not changed. If anything, the ongoing offensive in the southern Gaza town of Rafah has increased prospects, given that many residents sheltering there have already fled bloodshed and shelling in the north.
And if the Israeli government fails to expel the Palestinians, Khalil believes it will instead try to contain most of Gaza’s population in small areas, preventing them from returning home and subjecting them to bombing, surveillance , famine and disease.
Adam Shapiro, a political analyst, offered a similar assessment. “Israel is really trying to make any semblance of life in Gaza impossible,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune. “The goal is just to make it impossible for people to continue living there and force them to leave.”
Shapiro added that Israel managed to raze large parts of Gaza, starve its population and kill more than 35,000 people without facing considerable international pressure to end the war.
“It’s a status quo that appears to be viable for many players for quite a long period of time,” he said.
Matthew Duss, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy, a U.S.-based think tank, also said the conflict was likely to be prolonged.
He added that Israel’s lack of strategy in Gaza could have “catastrophic” consequences for the Palestinians, the United States and Israel itself.
“You have a war of vengeance waged by a state that has the full support of the global superpower that protects it from any consequences,” Duss told Tel Aviv Tribune.
The American vision for Gaza
In the United States, President Joe Biden’s administration has articulated a complex vision of the war and its outcome.
Washington says it supports Israel’s efforts to eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities. It is also seeking a ceasefire deal that would provide for a temporary halt to fighting, the release of Israeli captives and an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza.
At the same time, Biden officials have sought a deal to establish diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which they say would boost prospects for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
As for Gaza, the United States says the territory should ultimately be under the governance of a “reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA).
This American project, however, faces a mountain of obstacles. Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected the prospect of creating a Palestinian state. Israeli leaders also oppose the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza.
Even Israeli War Minister Benny Gantz, considered Netanyahu’s biggest domestic political rival, recently said that neither Hamas nor Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas could rule Gaza after the war.
As for the so-called normalization push aimed at building ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Duss said it was “strategically misguided.”
“The fact that they are still insisting on this point just reveals a disconcerting obsession with this type of deal as a way to make something positive out of this whole catastrophe,” Duss said.
Defeat Hamas
It is not immediately clear how Washington plans to permanently end the ongoing violence in Gaza while supporting the goal of a total defeat of Hamas – a goal that U.S. officials are beginning to recognize can be achieved. -be unachievable.
“Sometimes when we listen closely to Israeli leaders, they mostly talk about the idea of some kind of resounding victory on the battlefield, total victory,” Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told CNN last week. “I don’t think we believe that’s likely or possible.”
As an Israeli military victory looks increasingly unrealistic, Duss said insisting on eradicating Hamas before ending the war is an “absurd position.”
Israel said it had dismantled Hamas’s “military infrastructure” in northern Gaza in January, but months later its army was again bombing neighborhoods and clashing with Palestinian fighters in the Jabalia refugee camp and parts of it. from Gaza City to the north.
Khalil, the history professor, said that since the war began in October, Israel has changed its position on what must be done to eliminate Hamas with the aim of prolonging and expanding the war.
For example, Israel initially claimed that Hamas headquarters was located at al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City – an allegation that turned out to be false, although it was supported by US officials.
Today, Khalil claims that Israel has changed its position, saying instead that “Hamas is actually located in Rafah.” All their guys are in Rafah.
But, he added, Israel still needs to justify its restrictions on access to the north.
“Why can’t we let the Palestinians return to northern Gaza? Because Hamas is still there. We must carry out ‘clean-up operations,’” Khalil said, mimicking Israeli officials.
He added that Israel was preparing the ground for endless war.
The day after
As the war rages, U.S. and Israeli officials are openly discussing what might happen after the fighting ends.
Netanyahu wants the Israeli military to exercise indefinite control over Gaza – a possibility his own Defense Minister Yoav Gallant rejected last week, calling instead for a Palestinian entity to replace Hamas governance.
But what entity could fill this void? Experts doubt the Palestinian Authority’s ability to assert control over Gaza.
In 2006, for example, the Palestinian Authority lost a deadly legislative election to Hamas, and the following year tensions boiled over into violence between the two groups. Hamas routed Fatah forces – the faction that dominates the PA – within days and eventually took control of Gaza.
Questions also remain about what the U.S. push for a “reformed” Palestinian Authority means. President Abbas – elected for a four-year term in 2005 – is now 88 years old. Notably, Washington has not called elections to determine the new leadership of the Palestinian Authority.
“Bringing back Fatah or the PA on the back of an Israeli tank will absolutely not work. It’s obvious,” Duss said. “You need some kind of local leadership in Gaza that is willing to do this. And given our understanding that Hamas will continue to be present in Gaza, that will require some buy-in from Hamas.
But the United States and Israel have ruled out involving Hamas in any discussions on the future of Gaza.
Last week, Gantz suggested demilitarizing Gaza and forming an international coalition with “American, European, Arab and Palestinian elements” to oversee its civilian affairs.
This plan comes with its own set of obstacles, including getting foreign countries to agree to participate in the governance of Gaza.
Khalil said that even if Israel managed to take out all of Hamas’ battalions, the remaining Palestinian fighters would remain active.
“It is a fantasy to insert a NATO peacekeeping force,” he said. “And what happens when the first roadside bomb goes off? »
The bottom line, Shapiro said, is that Israel is focused on the destruction of Gaza, not its future, and that the United States fully supports the war regardless of its stated plans.
“I don’t know if anyone has a real idea of what governance in Gaza might look like in the aftermath of this. »
