Beirut, Lebanon – The ceasefire agreed between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas has sparked optimism that Israel’s 15-month-old war on Gaza will end and Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners will be freed.
But some analysts remain uncertain about the completion of the agreement, announced Wednesday and which should begin on Sunday, as planned.
Israel’s security cabinet gave the deal the green light Friday evening after postponing a meeting originally scheduled for Thursday. Still, dividing the deal into three phases opens the possibility that its terms will be violated or that the parties – particularly Israel – will renege on its terms, analysts said.
The agreement stipulates that an initial 42-day phase – which is to see the surrender of some captives and prisoners, Israeli withdrawal from populated areas and an increase in aid – will be followed by additional phases during which more exchanges of prisoners will also take place. such as a permanent Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire.
Experts who spoke to Tel Aviv Tribune fear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has resisted the ceasefire for months and insisted on the need to destroy Hamas, will resume hostilities after the recovery of the captives to ” ostensibly punishing the Palestinian group, strengthening Israel’s security and ensuring its own political survival while blaming Hamas for the failure of the deal.
“Israel is very good at breaking ceasefires and making it seem like it’s not their fault,” said Mairav Zonszein, an expert on Israel-Palestine at the International Crisis Group.
Temporary relief
The ceasefire in Gaza was announced by outgoing US President Joe Biden and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani. US President-elect Donald Trump also announced his support – and it was widely reported that it was pressure from Trump, who is expected to take power on Monday, that pushed the ceasefire negotiations to a deal.
The deal aims to end a devastating war that has prompted lawyers, rights groups and United Nations experts to accuse Israel of “genocide” over its policy of starving Palestinians and destroying the services necessary for their survival. South Africa also filed a complaint with the International Court of Justice accusing Israel of genocide, which was supported by many countries.
Israel has killed more than 46,700 people – men, women and children – and uprooted almost the entire pre-war population of 2.3 million people from their homes through attacks and orders to flee under penalty of bombings and ground attacks.
The war began after Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,139 people were killed and 250 captured.
Many captives were released during an earlier ceasefire in November 2023, and those remaining are expected to be released along with hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, an exchange that could take place over several weeks.
However, Zonszein believes the deal could fall through after that date.
“This (agreement) will provide immediate relief by delivering humanitarian aid and providing for the release of hostages and prisoners. This deal is more of an immediate break than a long-term solution,” she told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Diana Buttu, a Palestinian lawyer and former negotiator with the Palestine Liberation Organization, also fears that the vagueness of the agreement could allow Israel to terminate it at any time.
One term, for example, demands that Israel retreat to the Gaza Strip “border”, as opposed to the 1967 border, which demarcates Israel’s borders from the occupied territory.
This wording, Buttu said, raises concerns about whether Israel will actually completely withdraw from the enclave.
“The deal is very vague, and there are many areas where Israel can – and wants – to escape,” Buttu told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Political fears
The ceasefire agreed to Wednesday is roughly the same as that proposed in May, which was accepted by Hamas but rejected by Israel, which quickly overran the southern Gaza town of Rafah.
At the time, Biden warned Israel that Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians lived, constituted a “red line” for fear that an invasion would exacerbate Gaza’s already dire humanitarian crisis. However, the United States did not follow through on its threat to punish Israel after its ally sent troops to Rafah.
Israel’s move was part of a broader plan by Netanyahu to torpedo ceasefire proposals, apparently to hold his fragile far-right coalition together until he regains enough popularity to stand for new elections.
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have exploited Netanyahu’s political fears to advance their own agendas, such as maintaining the war in Gaza indefinitely, experts said.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are part of Israel’s religious nationalist movement and have threatened to leave the coalition if Netanyahu signs a ceasefire, a move that could potentially bring down the government and trigger elections.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are once again threatening to leave the coalition if the current ceasefire is maintained. It is unclear whether these threats are merely posturing or whether the two men are prepared to try to bring down Netanyahu.
“Everyone views Netanyahu as a dominant force in Israeli politics, but it is remarkable how Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have been able to exploit his political fears to pursue their own agendas,” said Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Netanyahu seems to have regained most of his popularity since the attacks of October 7, 2023, which saw his popularity drop.
However, he still appears hesitant to pursue the ceasefire, fearing for his political survival.
On Thursday, Netanyahu said he was “postponing” a cabinet meeting needed to approve the ceasefire and accused Hamas of reneging on the terms of the deal. The security cabinet finally approved the deal on Friday.
The mediators said Hamas had already accepted the proposal, as it has done several times since May.
“The Netanyahu of today is not the Netanyahu of the past. He is more fearful and unable to make decisions, which has led to strategic paralysis,” Lovatt said.
The day after ?
Since the start of the war in Gaza, the United States has advocated for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which to some extent controls the occupied West Bank, to return to Gaza to govern.
The PA was born out of the 1993 Oslo I Accord, signed by Israeli and Palestinian leaders and which launched a peace process with the ostensible goal of creating a Palestinian state.
For more than two decades, the peace process has been dead, largely due to Israel’s expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law, and the imposition of restrictions that have cut politically , economically and territorially Gaza of the West Bank. , according to a Human Rights Watch report.
The PA is also led primarily by Fatah, a Palestinian party that fought a brief civil war with Hamas in 2007, leading to a division within the Palestinian national movement.
The war has seen the PA expelled from Gaza and confined to the West Bank, where it has limited authority under Israel’s entrenched occupation.
Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip, which Israel later declared “hostile” territory and placed it under land, sea and air blockade.
Any plan to bring the Palestinian Authority back to Gaza worries Israel because it would politically and territorially reconnect the occupied areas and revive calls for a Palestinian state, according to Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine at the Middle World Affairs Council. -East.
“If you have a united Palestinian territory under a united Palestinian leadership, then Israel will be under pressure to participate in a political endgame, and Netanyahu does not want that to happen,” he told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Furthermore, experts told Tel Aviv Tribune that they do not see Israel completely withdrawing from Gaza in a vacuum, mainly due to Israel’s fear that Hamas could reassert its control over the enclave and rebuild its capabilities. .
Netanyahu has previously said Israel should exercise “comprehensive security control” over Gaza for an “indefinite” period.
“The sad story of Gaza shows us that there is a cycle of escalation and de-escalation because there is no political framework to address the root causes,” Lovatt said.
“Those who want to resume fighting in Gaza will likely have the opportunity at some point. »
