Benny Gantz, leader of the Israeli National Unity Party (12 out of 120 representatives in the Knesset), supported reaching an agreement to exchange prisoners with the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
However, with the resignation of the Minister in the War Council from his position, on Sunday evening, the chances of this potential agreement have become subject to controversy, in light of the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza since last October 7.
During his resignation announcement, Gantz, the most prominent candidate to form the next government, accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pursuing policies that serve his own interests, and called for early elections “as soon as possible.”
He also accused him of failing to achieve the declared goals of the war on Gaza, especially eliminating Hamas and returning prisoners from the Strip.
The Israeli war on Gaza resulted in more than 121,000 Palestinians martyred and wounded, most of them children and women, and about 10,000 missing amid deadly famine and massive destruction.
The extreme right
With Gantz’s resignation, the field becomes more vacant for the extreme right in the government coalition, as the opposition accuses Netanyahu of submitting to the representatives of the extreme right in his government.
The leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, strongly opposes reaching any agreement with Hamas, and threatens to topple the government if it is accepted.
Ben Gvir said on the “X” platform on Saturday evening, “We will not be able to return the rest of the hostages to their homeland except through massive and continuous military pressure.”
The leader of the far-right Religious Zionism party, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, also opposes reaching any agreement, and also threatens to topple the emergency government.
This position was expressed by Smotrich to the families of Israeli prisoners in Gaza, during a meeting of the Finance Committee in the Knesset on Monday.
Israeli Channel 12 quoted Smotrich as saying, denouncing, “What deal? Is there a deal that Hamas accepts? Do you know one? I will not support the deal in question. The question is: Is there a deal at all?”
At the end of last May, US President Joe Biden announced an “Israeli” proposal for a three-stage agreement, which includes a ceasefire, prisoner exchange, and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.
In addition to the “Jewish Power” and “Religious Zionism” parties, some Likud (right) representatives, led by Netanyahu, oppose concluding an agreement with Hamas.
With the exception of the two religious parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, which explicitly supported reaching an agreement, the rest of the parties in the government coalition either oppose or have reservations.
The ruling coalition has the support of 64 deputies in the Knesset, which guarantees it a majority.
Netanyahu test
Until now, Netanyahu has not announced his approval of the “Israeli proposal” announced by Biden.
According to observers, Netanyahu fears the possibility of Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s resignation, and then the dismantling of the government. Therefore, he may submit to their pressure and not accept an agreement, or find a way to convince them of it in exchange for concessions in other areas.
Channel 12 political analyst Dafna Liel said, “Hamas has not yet responded to the Israeli proposal regarding the hostage deal. It is difficult to assess the extent of the impact of Gantz’s departure on the possibility of the success of the deal currently presented to Hamas.”
While Netanyahu insists on only a temporary cessation of fighting, Hamas insists on ending the war, the withdrawal of the Israeli army, the freedom for the displaced to return to their areas, the entry of sufficient humanitarian aid, and the reconstruction of Gaza within any prisoner exchange agreement.
Liel added, “But Netanyahu’s test will be if Hamas responds positively, then he will be facing opposition from Smotrich and Ben Gvir.”
Safety net
If the confrontation intensifies, Netanyahu may resort to the opposition, as in recent weeks its leader, Yair Lapid, announced his willingness to provide Netanyahu with a safety net in the Knesset, if an agreement proposal is presented to a vote.
The Smotrich and Ben Gvir parties have 14 deputies, while the “There is a Future” party, headed by Lapid, has 24 deputies, ensuring that Netanyahu will pass the agreement in the Knesset if he wants.
After the Israeli army recovered 4 prisoners alive from Gaza on Saturday, Israeli voices rose calling for military pressure to return the rest of the prisoners.
But the families of the prisoners reminded the government that during the 8 months of the war, it had recovered only 7 prisoners from Gaza by military means, compared to 100 through a ceasefire agreement that lasted a week until the beginning of last December.
The families called on the Netanyahu government – through a statement and a protest march on Saturday – to accept the deal proposal announced by Biden.
Tel Aviv estimates that there are 120 Israeli prisoners in Gaza, while Hamas announced that more than 70 of them were killed in raids launched by Israel, which holds at least 9,500 Palestinians in its prisons.
American pressure
According to Amos Harel, a military analyst for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, “Israel may have other opportunities to carry out bold rescue operations that entail great risks.”
He added, “But with only 7 prisoners recovered through 3 separate operations and the failure of other operations, there are no reasons to believe that it is possible to liberate them all by force of arms.”
He believed that “the National Unity Party’s departure from the government will reduce the chances that Netanyahu will be willing to risk another political crisis within his ruling coalition to push the deal forward.”
Harel added, “If there is still any chance, it depends on the intense pressure exerted by the American administration on both sides (Israel and Hamas).”
He pointed out that the Israeli security and military services support reaching an agreement, and said that “the viewpoint of senior army officers, like senior officials in other defense agencies, remains the same as it has always been.”
This point of view, according to Harel, is that “Israel must try to negotiate a deal to release all the hostages, even at a high price, and even if Hamas is able to present the agreement as an achievement.”
Last May, Hamas and the rest of the factions announced their approval of an Egyptian-Qatari proposal for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange, but Israel rejected it, claiming that it did not meet its conditions.
The Palestinian factions accuse Israel and its ally, the United States, of not really wanting to end the war, and of seeking through negotiations to buy time, hoping that Tel Aviv will achieve gains.
Israel continues its war on Gaza despite the UN Security Council’s decision to stop the fighting immediately, and the orders of the International Court of Justice to end the invasion of Rafah (south), and to take measures to prevent acts of genocide and improve the dire humanitarian situation in the Strip.
Israel is also challenging the request of International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan to issue arrest warrants against its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and its Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, for their responsibility for “war crimes” and “crimes against humanity” in Gaza.
