With his back against the wall, the new French Prime Minister has the choice between refusing compromise with the left on pension reform or signing a hasty end to his mandate which risks endangering the unity of his camp and worsening the worrying situation of the country’s public finances.
François Bayrou negotiates. The new French Prime Minister must present this Tuesday at 3 p.m., before the deputies of the National Assembly, his general policy speech.
If he wants to hope to stay in his post, at 57 rue de Varenne, François Bayrou must extract an agreement from the left without losing his allies. This is squaring the circle.
On the left, socialists, ecologists and communists demand a “suspension” of pension reform in exchange for a non-censorship agreement.
“If there are no precise, clear commitments on pension reform and the purchasing power of the French, we will censor this week“, threatened the boss of the communists Fabien Roussel on RMC this Monday.
If the 2023 reform were suspended, people born in 1963 could retire three months earlier, i.e. at 62 years and six months (with a contribution period of 42 years and one quarter).
The cost of suspending the pension reform is estimated at around three billion euros.
Part of the presidential camp and the right are opposed to it. “To suspend is to repealr”says the Ensemble pour la République deputy, Mathieu Lefèvre.
“We no longer have the means to do much“, said Labor Minister Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet. “We no longer have the means to do much”adds the minister, recalling the 6% deficit recorded by France in 2024.
For his part, the head of the LR deputies Laurent Wauquiez believes that it would be “irresponsible” to suspend pension reform without funding.
On the far left, the Insoumis are not participating in the negotiations and have already announced the tabling of a motion of censure which will be examined at the end of the week. And on the other side of the spectrum, far-right boss Jordan Bardella observes and warns that “the same causes will lead to the same effects”. Implied, censorship of a government for lack of agreement with the RN.
In the meantime, the lack of agreement on a budget for 2025 worries markets and investors. Economist and columnist Dominique Seux thus warns of the increase in French investments in American treasury securities.
In the eyes of the economist, “the capital is leaving” and the markets are awaiting François Bayrou’s general policy declaration.
