According to analysts, the fragile ceasefire concluded between Israel and Hezbollah on November 27 should hold, despite repeated violations.
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has held for more than a month, although the terms of the agreement are unlikely to be fully respected by the end of January deadline.
The deal, reached on November 27 to end the conflict, required Hezbollah to immediately cease hostilities in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw its forces and hand over control of the region to the army. Lebanese and UN peacekeeping forces within 60 days.
So far, Israel has withdrawn from only two of the many towns it controls in southern Lebanon. It has continued to strike what it claims are Hezbollah bases, accusing the group of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be seized and destroyed.
Hezbollah, severely weakened by nearly 14 months of conflict, warned it would resume hostilities if Israel did not withdraw completely by the end of the 60-day deadline.
Despite accusations of ceasefire violations by both sides, analysts say the truce is likely to hold, offering hope to tens of thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war and still waiting to return home. they.
“The ceasefire agreement is somewhat ambiguous and open to interpretation”says Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He notes that this flexibility can help the deal hold up in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of longtime Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, which took place just days after the ceasefire.
With the departure of an “executioner from Damascus”, Hezbollah lost a key smuggling route for weapons from Iran, further weakening the group. However, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.
Hezbollah first launched rockets into Israel on October 8, 2023, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel that sparked the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground attacks have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than a million Lebanese were displaced.
Hezbollah rocket fire forced around 60,000 people to flee their homes in northern Israel and killed 76 people, including 31 soldiers. Nearly 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.
What does the ceasefire agreement include?
The agreement stipulates that Hezbollah and Israel will cease “offensive” military actions, although both sides are allowed to act in self-defense, a term that remains open to interpretation.
The Lebanese army is responsible for preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from attacking Israel. It must also dismantle Hezbollah’s facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon, a task that could eventually extend to the rest of the country, although this is not explicitly mentioned in the agreement.
The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are responsible for overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire.
“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but which version of it will be implemented”said Mr. Maksad.
Is the ceasefire enforced?
Hezbollah has largely ceased its rocket and drone attacks on Israel, while Israel has refrained from attacking Hezbollah in most parts of Lebanon. However, Israel has continued regular airstrikes against what it claims are militant sites in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.
Israel has withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon – Khiam and Shamaa – but still occupies around 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration. Around 160,000 Lebanese are still displaced.
ADVERTISEMENTLebanon has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire on several occasions and filed a complaint with the United Nations Security Council, reporting 816 “land and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and December 22, 2023. According to the complaint, these attacks paralyzed the Lebanese army’s efforts to deploy in the south and enforce the ceasefire.
Israel, for its part, accuses Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire hundreds of times and has filed its own complaint with the Security Council. It claims Hezbollah militants moved munitions, attempted to attack Israeli soldiers, prepared and launched rockets toward northern Israel, among other violations.
Until handing over control of other cities to the Lebanese army, Israel targeted Hezbollah’s infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian homes and infrastructure.
What will happen after 60 days of ceasefire?
Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than expected, in part because Lebanese army forces are not sufficient to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an army spokesman. Israeli. Lebanon disputes this claim, arguing that it is waiting for Israel’s withdrawal to deploy troops in cities.
ADVERTISEMENTNadav Shoshani said Israel was satisfied with the Lebanese army’s control in the areas it withdrew from and that while it would prefer a quicker handover, security was the main priority.
According to Harel Chorev, an expert on Israeli-Lebanese relations at Tel Aviv University, Israel does not consider the 60-day deadline for withdrawal as “sacred”. It suggests Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel is ready to transfer control.
Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days after the start of the ceasefire, they could resume their attacks. However, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said on Wednesday that, for now, the group was refraining from any action in order to give the Lebanese state a chance to“take responsibility” of the application of the agreement.
During the last two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered significant lossesespecially in terms of leadership, weapons and forces, due to Israeli airstrikes and ground invasion. The fall of Al-Assad was another major setback for the group.
ADVERTISEMENT“The imbalance of power suggests that Israel may want to guarantee greater freedom of action after the 60-day period”recalls Mr. Maksad. Hezbollah, in its weakened state, now has a “great interest” to ensure that the agreement does not collapse, “despite Israeli violations”he added.
While Hezbollah may not be able to resume open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerrilla attacks using small arms if Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon, according to former Lebanese army general Hassan Jouni. Even if Israel withdraws all its ground troops, Jouni warned, the Israeli army could continue sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, similar to its operations in Syria.
