Former Israeli military intelligence chief Tamir Hayman called for a single deal in which Israel would offer a complete cessation of the war in exchange for the release of all prisoners, considering that any gradual and divided deal would not be successful.
Hayman stressed – in an article published by the National Security Research Institute of Tel Aviv University – that the operation in Rafah has 4 goals, and “it is necessary to continue until they are achieved in accordance with the order of priorities.”
The writer divided his point of view – which seems to be different from everything presented in the Israeli arena – into two parts: the first part relates to the approval of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to the mediators’ proposal, and the second part presents his position on the Rafah operation that the occupation army began on Tuesday.
Hamas proposal
Regarding Hamas’ response, the former head of Israeli military intelligence said that in practice, the proposal agreed to by Hamas is radically different from the one agreed to by Israel, and there are two main points of disagreement: the end of the war, and the identity of the Palestinian prisoners who will be released.
He pointed out that in the first issue, Israel believes that the mediators’ proposal is acceptable not to mention the phrase “stopping the war,” and to be satisfied with “stopping activity,” which is a vague phrase that allows flexibility to renew the war in the future, if Israel chooses to do so.
He continued that the dilemma lies in the second issue, as Israel will give up its veto on the decision to release Palestinian prisoners.
Hayman explained that Israel would release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 sentenced to life imprisonment, in exchange for the release of every captive Israeli female soldier. That is, in total, at the end of the first phase, Israel will release 150 prisoners sentenced to life imprisonment, at the request of Hamas, without allowing Israel to interfere in that.
If that happens, he continued, “Israel will release all dangerous prisoners sentenced to life imprisonment linked to Hamas, which will leave Israel without any bargaining chip for the second phase. In practice, Israel will release everyone important to Hamas without recovering all the prisoners, and the movement will achieve All of its demands are in the first stage, except for Israel’s commitment to completely end the war.”
No to the occupation of Rafah…yes to the crossing
In the second part related to Rafah, the former head of Israeli military intelligence specified, The objectives of the Rafah operation are 4, which are:
- Increase operational pressure on Hamas to improve the chances of reaching a better agreement.
- Closing the border between Egypt and Rafah to prevent weapons smuggling to Hamas in the future.
- Controlling the Rafah crossing is an expression of Hamas’ loss of sovereignty.
- Dismantling the four Rafah Brigade brigades – affiliated with the Al-Qassam Brigades – by eliminating its leaders and members, and neutralizing the underground tunnels.
He summarized his position on this by saying that “in the absence of an agreement or settlement on the part of Hamas, it is harmful for Israel to continue in the stagnant situation we were in. It is positive that new energy will enter the battle.”
Although he acknowledged the ineffectiveness of military pressure in influencing the release of prisoners, and that this has not been achieved so far, he considered that “the absence of operational pressure does not improve our position towards reaching an agreement.”
Here, his point of view was consistent with many Israeli military analysts, opposing the complete occupation of Rafah.
Hayman said, “Controlling the Gaza Strip borders and the Rafah crossing are two very important achievements, while the ongoing dismantling of the Phalange is of secondary importance. This is because even after its dismantling and after the destruction of Hamas in Rafah, if we do not decide the ruling authority that will replace the Israeli army there, we must “Expect that we will be disappointed again after our withdrawal and after Hamas regains control. Completely occupying Rafah does not guarantee complete victory, and creating excessive expectations on this issue is not helpful.”
Different positions
The writer presented his position on exchange deals and said, “Gradual hostage deals do not work. We must adopt a different concept of a single deal in which Israel offers a complete cessation of war in exchange for the release of all hostages. What will happen after that? Will we never work in Gaza? Should we Should we leave Hamas intact and maintain its efforts to build its strength? In my opinion, after October 7, no!
He also summarized his position on the Rafah operation, saying: “The operation in Rafah has just begun, and it is not advisable to announce its scope… This is an evolving operation, and it is forbidden to give the enemy certainty… The IDF has begun the operation and will continue as long as it is necessary to achieve the above-mentioned objectives in accordance with To prioritize.
It is noteworthy that this institute is headed by the former Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army and Military Intelligence, General (res.) Amos Yadlin, and it is an institute specialized in the fields of national security affairs such as the army, strategic affairs, low-intensity conflict, the military balance in the Middle East, and electronic warfare.