The Israeli war on the Gaza Strip cast one of its fragments on the Red Sea region, and the United States found itself leading a new coalition against the Houthis in Yemen, who are imposing a fiery siege on the Israeli port of Eilat by targeting commercial ships heading to it through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
What is interesting is that the Arab countries – led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which fought a war against the Houthis – did not join the Guardian of Prosperity coalition, which the United States announced its formation on December 18.
Only Bahrain, which hosts the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet, has joined the new maritime alliance among the rest of the Arab countries, although its role is likely to be symbolic and limited only to the logistical aspect.
This Arab hesitation or reluctance to participate in a US-led maritime coalition against the Houthis prompts questions about its background and its political, economic, and military repercussions on the Arab region.
Protecting navigation or lifting the siege on Eilat?
At first glance, it is believed that the mission of the Guardian of Prosperity Alliance in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden is not much different from the international maritime coalition that was formed in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean in the face of Somali pirates.
However, the situation is different this time. The issue is related to the stifling siege that Israel imposes on the Gaza Strip by denying it water, food, electricity, fuel and medicine. Therefore, the Houthi group announced its attack on Israeli ships or those heading to Israeli ports until the siege on the Strip is lifted.
Instead of Washington seeking to stop the war and lift the siege on the residents of Gaza, it is mobilizing the largest possible number of countries to protect Israel and its maritime trade, because the Houthis have announced that they do not target international navigation in the region with the exception of commercial ships heading to Israeli ports.
This is what makes Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia reluctant to participate in an alliance whose real goal is to mobilize military support for Israel in its war on Gaza, even indirectly, and to try to break the international isolation that Tel Aviv is suffering from due to the war crimes it is committing in Gaza. This was evident in the Council’s vote. Security and the United Nations General Assembly.
In this regard, the New York Times says that in light of American support for the Israeli war on Gaza, it does not seem that any country in the region wants to associate with the United States in a military adventure.
Saudi Arabia’s accounts with Biden
Saudi Arabia cannot forget that the administration of US President Joe Biden directed harsh criticism at it and the Arab coalition regarding the Yemen war, stopped its support for it, suspended the sale of weapons and ammunition to its army, and also removed the Houthis from the terrorist list, but today, for the sake of Israel, it is asking it to participate in a new war. In Yemen.
The situation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is in a state of calm, especially after the successful Chinese mediation between Riyadh and Tehran, an ally of the Houthis.
Saudi Arabia does not want to escalate the situation by joining a new military alliance against the Houthis, which would return it to a new war of attrition that would confuse its new direction.
Joining the maritime coalition led by Washington would ignite the war again, and make Saudi Arabia in the face of the storm, and a target for Houthi missiles and marches, while Riyadh seeks to focus on building an economy that does not depend on oil revenues, in accordance with Vision 2030, and providing a stable atmosphere in the region, especially after its victory. Organizing Expo 2030 and organizing the 2034 World Cup.
This is what was indicated by a member of the Houthi political bureau, Muhammad Al-Bukhaiti, when he said in a press statement, “If Saudi Arabia and the UAE commit to not participating publicly, or even non-publicly, the reduction of escalation will continue between us and them, but if they rise and participate in the war on Yemen, we will… be targeted.” All oil tankers in the region.
The UAE is waiting and stipulating
The UAE, which is considered a major player in the Arab coalition against the Houthis, also suffered from the Biden administration’s suspension of important arms deals with it, most notably the F-35 warplane deal, due to the Yemen war, which made it hesitate to accept joining the Guardian of Prosperity coalition.
But the Israeli Kan channel claimed that the UAE confirmed that it was studying the issue of joining the maritime coalition in the Red Sea, if Washington decided to launch a very important strike against the Houthis, and there was no immediate response from Abu Dhabi.
In the spring of 2023, the UAE announced its withdrawal from the joint naval forces, which included 38 countries led by the United States, and whose mission was to protect navigation in the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea from piracy and “terrorism.”
The UAE did not explain at the time the reason for the withdrawal, but the Wall Street Journal reported in a report, citing American and Gulf sources, that the UAE was frustrated with the United States’ lack of response to Iran’s detention of two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. However, this report angered Abu Dhabi, which criticized what it considered to be wrong descriptions.
While the new coalition will play a defensive role, that is, it will be content with shooting down Houthi drones and ballistic missiles targeting ships heading to Israeli ports or those targeting the city of Eilat on the Red Sea coast.
The coalition will not carry out any offensive operations on the capital, Sanaa, and the cities and ports controlled by the Houthis, at least in the first phase, as the United States does not want to get involved in a new Vietnam War.
Egypt… precedents and complications
As for Egypt, the situation is more complex, as it is directly concerned with securing navigation in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, due to its connection to the Suez Canal, which represents the country’s fourth source of income in hard currency (more than $9 billion annually) after exports, remittances from workers abroad, and tourism.
The announcement by major international shipping companies of diverting their ships’ routes from passing through the Suez Canal to detouring through the Cape of Good Hope would affect Egypt’s revenues from the canal in the future, if the period of security tension in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is prolonged.
Until now, 180 ships have changed their course away from the Bab al-Mandab Strait, or have been stopped awaiting instructions from the companies operating them, according to what the American shipping company Flexport announced on December 21.
Therefore, Egypt’s joining the Guardian of Prosperity Alliance represents an economic interest, but Cairo did not join this alliance, despite the fact that Lieutenant General Mohab Mameesh, advisor to the Egyptian President for Ports, called for the necessity of providing an Egyptian security force stationed adjacent to one of the countries in the Red Sea.
It is in Egypt’s strategic interest to increase pressure on Israel to lift its siege on Gaza, thus defeating the project to displace Gazans to Sinai.
In this context, the Houthis’ requirement to stop targeting ships heading to Israeli ports in exchange for bringing food into Gaza is in the interest of Egypt and its national security, which is related to the refusal to displace the population of the Gaza Strip to its lands and liquidate the Palestinian cause, or the transfer of the Palestinian resistance to Sinai, in a repetition of the Jordanian and Lebanese experiences.
Egypt also has a bitter experience participating in the Yemeni civil war (1962-1970), and does not wish to repeat this experience.
This explains its participation in the Arab coalition against the Houthis in 2015 without ground forces on the ground, and being limited to naval vessels to secure navigation in the Red Sea via the Suez Canal.
Therefore, the situation is complex in the Red Sea, and the formation of a new coalition of 10 countries led by the United States will be a repeated experience for the joint international naval forces in the region, unless it develops into a military confrontation after the Houthis threatened to target American naval vessels in the region and strike oil installations in Saudi Arabia. And the UAE if they participate in the coalition.
This will have a negative impact on international shipping traffic in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and the possibility of shipping companies searching for new routes for their ships north and south. This will have damage to the Egyptian economy and a pressure card used by Western countries in order to make the displacement of the population of Gaza to Sinai a reality.
Cracking and apprehensive
The Arab countries are not the only ones concerned about this alliance, as leaks spoke of European countries withdrawing from it because they realize that America is mobilizing the world just to lift the siege on an Israeli port, while the situation could be remedied by bringing food supplies into the Gaza Strip.
Today, Sunday, a member of the Houthi political leadership, Muhammad al-Houthi, said, “Announcing a withdrawal from the “coalition to protect Israeli ships confirms the failure of the declared coalition,” and confirms that the withdrawing countries “saw that the importance of their countries’ interests is more important than this coalition.”
He added: “This is a message to those who want to continue taking risks by preserving their interests instead of sacrificing them for the sake of the interests of the occupying entity.”
He reiterated that “any targeting by this coalition by undertaking any foolish operations against the Yemeni people and their republic will make the aggressor’s ships, battleships, navigation, and interests a target for Yemeni missiles, aircraft, and military operations.”
He said that the best solution to avoid escalation and protect international navigation and the Suez Canal lies in two steps: stopping the Israeli aggression on Gaza, lifting the siege on it, and bringing food and medicine to it.
