Beirut, Lebanon – Low-flying Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier twice over Beirut as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered his first speech in two days of attacks that saw pagers and walkie-talkies explode across Lebanon.
The attacks – which killed Lebanese Hezbollah members and civilians, including at least two children – came months after Nasrallah urged his supporters to stop using cellphones because they could be compromised by Israel.
The attacks also came amid escalating rhetoric by Israeli officials about stepping up operations on their northern front.
At least 37 people were killed and nearly 3,000 injured in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday.
More than 600 people have been killed since October 8, when Hezbollah and Israel began trading attacks across the border. More than 100 of them were civilians.
Hezbollah’s response
Nasrallah appeared tired at the start of his speech Thursday as he acknowledged the severity of the damage.
He called the attacks that attempted to kill 5,000 people simultaneously a “major terrorist operation, an act of genocide and massacre.”
He admitted it was a “hard blow…unprecedented in the history of the resistance,” but his energy grew as he delivered his speech, which included some of his signature provocations against Israel, particularly its prime minister.
“(Benjamin) Netanyahu, … we welcome an invasion. … We see this as an opportunity,” he said.
Referring to Israel’s stated aim Thursday to make conditions near its border with Lebanon safe enough for residents who fled Hezbollah attacks to return, Nasrallah said: “I promise you that you will not be able to bring the settlers back to their homes.”
Beyond his harsh words, Nasrallah did not indicate when or where a response would take place.
Hezbollah insiders have promised a stunning response after such stunning attacks.
“The response will be gradual, progressive and painful,” Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst close to the group, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Other analysts believe that this defiant attitude cannot be reckless if Hezbollah wants to avoid further losses in terms of morale and personnel.
“The recent Israeli attack on Hezbollah has exposed serious weaknesses and vulnerabilities,” Imad Salamey, a professor of political science at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“Hezbollah must now be extremely cautious in its response. (…) I believe that Hezbollah’s retaliation will be delayed, as it regroups with the aim of regaining the initiative and creating surprise, while waiting for a possible settlement in Gaza before acting.”
Hezbollah’s last major response came in response to Israel’s assassination of the group’s commander, Fuad Shukr. On August 25, more than 300 rockets were fired and drones were launched at Israeli bases.
“We can certainly say that Hezbollah’s response to the assassination of Fuad Shukr was not sufficient to restore deterrence,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
“This so-called balance of terror no longer holds.”
“Living in a Netflix series”
For many Lebanese, the last few days have been surreal.
“We seem to be living in a Netflix series or a dystopia,” Bitar said.
“This is an unprecedented event in the history of war in the Middle East, and we have witnessed many tragic events.”
The strikes on Hezbollah communications have also raised fears among some Lebanese of an imminent Israeli invasion.
Analysts told Tel Aviv Tribune that while they do not believe an invasion is imminent, that does not mean Israel will not expand its aggression against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
“There is certainly a risk of a wider war,” Bitar said.
“It will be extremely difficult for the Iranian axis and Hezbollah to find an appropriate way to respond without giving Netanyahu the pretext he is desperately seeking to launch this all-out offensive.”
Former U.S. Special Forces officer Seth Krummrich, who now works for the risk management firm Global Guardian, said the pager strikes sent a “very clear message” to Hezbollah.
But he added that this might not achieve Israel’s stated goal of returning displaced Israelis to its northern border, as recent events show that the two sides are only moving further away from a negotiated agreement.
“The warring parties are growing further apart every day, and important voices in the region are saying that attitudes need to change,” Krummrich said. “If Israel continues to advance, … it will be a protracted and horrific conflict.”
Technological disparity
According to analysts, if there is one thing that has become clear in recent days, it is that the technological advantage is largely in Israel’s favor.
Nasrallah admitted this in his speech.
“We recognize that the enemy has technological supremacy, especially since it is supported by the United States and the West as a whole,” he said.
Pro-Hezbollah Telegram groups reported on Wednesday the hacking of some Israeli websites, including the pages of some Israeli municipalities.
But technological advantages alone cannot win a war, Krummrich said.
“Technological advantage is a mirage,” he said. “If you have the will, the people and the faith, you always have the ultimate advantage, because war is a constant evolution.”
“Israel and Hezbollah share this belief, and that’s not usually the case in conflicts,” Krummrich added. “And that worries me a lot (because without a negotiated agreement), the situation will only get worse.”
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