Sanaa, Yemen – When Israel’s war on Gaza erupted on October 7, Saleh Abdullah, a 48-year-old supermarket owner in Sanaa, joined mass pro-Palestinian protests, expressing solidarity with the besieged enclave. He never thought the Houthi armed group that controls Yemen’s capital and large parts of the country would intervene militarily.
On October 19, a US warship intercepted drones and missiles fired from Yemen as they headed toward Israel. Later, the Houthi group, which has been the de facto authority in northern Yemen since 2015, claimed responsibility for firing ballistic missiles at Israel, announcing it would launch more.
Abdullah celebrated. “When the Houthis said they were sending missiles and drones towards Israel, the news lifted our morale and brought a sense of euphoria,” he said.
But that feeling was short-lived, as Abdullah began to reflect on the repercussions of escalation as his country is gripped by multiple crises, including political instability, military rivalry and an unhealthy economy, and that diplomatic talks aimed at definitively ending years of fighting remained. inconclusive.
Now, a series of Houthi attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea – which the Yemeni group says are aimed at pressuring Israel to end the war on Gaza that has killed nearly 20 000 people – triggered a reaction from the West.
On Monday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the creation of a multinational maritime task force involving 10 navies aimed at protecting the Red Sea from what he described as a “reckless” escalation by the Houthis.
This is precisely the kind of response Abdullah fears. “Yemeni attacks on Israel or US forces will require their response, and their response will put Yemen in a state of war. This is what many Yemenis and I do not want to see. We are tired of conflicts and do not want new atrocities to break out,” he said.
Concern about the return of war
It has been nine years since Yemen descended into civil war, triggering a catastrophic humanitarian situation with thousands of deaths and millions of displaced people. Since last year, efforts by the United Nations and regional actors have helped silence the guns in Yemen, and civilians hope this will continue, even as negotiations on a long-term ceasefire remain in the works. uncertainty.
However, in recent weeks, the war in Gaza has cast a shadow over these hopes. Multiple Houthi attacks on ships crossing the Red Sea, a key maritime trade artery through a region that is the world’s largest oil supplier, have threatened to drag Yemen into a new war.
On Friday, some of the world’s largest shipping companies announced their ships would stop transiting the Red Sea because of the missile attacks, a move that threatens to drive up oil prices, hurting the global economy. The next day, the British and US navies intercepted 15 attack drones fired from Houthi-controlled territories. Two other ships were attacked on Sunday.
“Zero impact”
Houthi missiles and drones have been a source of concern for Israel in recent weeks. However, the Yemeni public has divergent opinions regarding the impact of such attacks.
Leila Salem, a 28-year-old student at Sanaa University, said Houthi missiles and drones would not be enough to stop the Israeli army from continuing its war on Gaza. She told Tel Aviv Tribune: “Firing drones and missiles from Yemen into Israel is like hitting an angry elephant with a small stick. Such attacks can have zero impact on the Israeli army. »
If anything, Salem worries, the consequences will be felt more by the Yemeni people, many of whom praise the Houthis for sending drones and firing missiles at Israeli and Western ships in the Red Sea.
“The previous US administration classified the Houthis as a foreign terrorist group. Ongoing Houthi attacks on shipping lanes and US forces in the region could pave the way for the group to be blacklisted,” she said.
If the group is reclassified as a “foreign terrorist organization,” the Houthis will survive, she said. “The group will not be weakened or eliminated overnight, and only civilians will suffer the consequences. »
Ali al-Dhahab, a Yemeni political and military analyst, said the international maritime coalition meeting in the Red Sea will not stand idly by if it detects missiles or unmanned aircraft launched from Houthi-controlled areas. “The coalition will respond to the sources of the shooting,” he said. Any armed clash between the Houthis and international forces would hamper the peace process in Yemen, he warned.
Persistent Houthi challenge
As Yemeni civilians worry about the consequences of the Houthis’ involvement in Israel’s war on Gaza, the Iran-backed group’s leaders and fighters remain defiant.
Mohammed Nasser, a 28-year-old Houthi fighter on the front lines in the city of Marib, told Tel Aviv Tribune that while their drones and missiles cannot reach Israel, they can still easily hit targets in the Red Sea, particularly the Israeli and American ships. .
“We are prepared for all scenarios and capable of hitting targets in the Red Sea. No country can stop us from supporting Gaza,” Nasser told Tel Aviv Tribune.
On December 15, Houthi spokesperson Yahia Sarea said the group attacked two ships, the MSC Alanya and the MSC PALATIUM III, in the Red Sea. He added: “The Yemeni armed forces confirm that they will continue to prevent all ships heading to Israeli ports from sailing in (the Red Sea) until they bring the food and medicine that our faithful need. brothers in the Gaza Strip need. »
The Houthis win
It is certain that the Houthi intervention in the war against Gaza also enjoys some popular support. A Sanaa-based political researcher, who requested anonymity, told Tel Aviv Tribune that the Houthi group had won the hearts of countless people in Yemen through its attacks in support of Gaza.
“By firing missiles at Israel or Israeli targets in the Red Sea, the Houthi group is gaining popular support in Yemen, which is a considerable gain. Public support helps them consolidate their authority, which stems from the 2015 coup against the Yemeni government,” he said.
However, he also acknowledged that these “gains” for the Houthis could mean losses for Yemen, which could face further “humanitarian and economic unrest.”
And prospects for peace could suffer. “Houthi arrogance will increase, which could hinder an agreement on ending the civil war with their local opponents,” he said.