Washington- The presence of William Burns, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), in Doha, and the arrival of Brett McGurk, US President Joe Biden’s chief advisor for Middle East affairs, to Cairo, reflect the amount of American pressure to reach a breakthrough on the deal that Biden presented last Friday.
Until now, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has not announced its explicit approval of the agreement against the backdrop of the lack of strong guarantees of a final cessation of fighting and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the entire Gaza Strip with the end of the second phase of the agreement. While Israel agrees to the first phase, without committing to move to the end of the second, and leaves that to negotiations.
Biden believes that both parties must accept the agreement and begin its first phase, provided that the ceasefire continues as long as the two sides continue to negotiate.
vagueness
In an interview with Tel Aviv Tribune Net, the former advisor to the Palestinian leadership in negotiations with Israel, Khaled Al-Jundi, indicated that Biden believes that he is smarter than everyone, and that by framing the proposal as Israeli, pressure can be put on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
A state of ambiguity prevails due to the different demands and expectations of the parties to the conflict, with the exclusion of reaching the third phase of the agreement, which includes the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu appears to be indifferent to this stage, while Hamas fears that it will never reach it.
In his interview with the American “Time” magazine, published last Monday, President Biden answered “yes” when asked whether he believed that Netanyahu was prolonging his country’s war with Hamas to enhance his political survival. “The answer may be yes, there is every reason for people to draw that conclusion,” Biden said.
Hours later, the US President seemed to say something opposite when he responded to a reporter’s question while leaving an election meeting: “Is Netanyahu using war in his political game?” Biden replied: “I don’t think so. He is trying to solve a serious problem he has.”
This contradiction prompted many observers to recall some of the White House’s contradictory positions regarding the developments in the events of the Israeli aggression on Gaza since the seventh of last October.
This contradiction in the statements and statements put forward by the White House, while practically adhering to support for Israel, is attributed by commentators to Biden’s desire to appease the disparate electoral groups whose positions are often conflicting, especially with the approaching date of the presidential elections.
According to Tel Aviv Tribune Net commentators, the White House’s messages work to satisfy pro-Israel voters by confirming the release of all those detained by Hamas while ensuring that the movement does not have any capabilities that would allow it to attack Israel in the future. At the same time, a ceasefire is reached to satisfy Arab and Muslim voters.
Pressure method
During the past few months, the White House did not hide its desire for a change at the top of political power in Israel, and Biden supported the appeal of the head of the Democratic majority in the Senate, Senator Chuck Schumer, to hold elections in Israel in an effort to change Netanyahu.
This prompted some analysts to believe that the way Biden presented the ceasefire plan and the release of detainees is only a step in this direction.
For his part, David De Roche, a professor of security studies at the Pentagon’s National Defense University and a former NATO official, says that Biden incorrectly portrayed this proposal as a proposal for the Israeli government, which this government immediately disavowed, and that To attract some inside Tel Aviv.
This would indicate that the proposal aims to disrupt Israel’s national unity government, promote the dissolution of the cabinet, and lead to a new government led by someone other than Netanyahu, according to De Roches.
Des Roches believes that the White House team considered Biden’s move as a means to pressure Netanyahu and fragment his government, and that his dissatisfaction with Netanyahu is not a secret. “It is clear that the American president believes that he is able to solve the Gaza problem if there is a different partner in Israel other than Netanyahu.”
In an interview with Tel Aviv Tribune Net, Gregory Avtandilian, an expert on Middle East peace and a professor at the American University in Washington, said that Biden opened new horizons by saying that the temporary ceasefire must lead to a permanent ceasefire that requires the release of the remaining detainees.
To reassure the Israelis, Avtandilian points out that the US President said, “Hamas does not have the ability to launch another attack inside Israel as it did on October 7, 2023.” Biden also said that what he revealed was the Israeli plan, instead of issuing an American plan. In order to put pressure on Netanyahu to accept it without new demands.
Although it is an Israeli plan, Netanyahu was not enthusiastic about it, and feared that absolute acceptance of it would lead to the withdrawal of far-right members of his government, such as Ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, according to Avtandilian.
Netanyahu’s maneuver
For his part, Khaled Al-Jundi considered that Netanyahu “is playing on both sides. He tells Washington that he voted in favor of the agreement, and at the same time he says that this presentation is not accurate before his ministerial council, and that it is not enough to achieve complete victory.”
Regarding the position of the Hamas movement, expert De Roches believes that it will accept the proposal, but “it will hesitate to implement it, and argue over the details.” “With the passage of time, we have seen that many of its detainees have either died or are being held by other groups.
At the same time, Hamas realizes that the detainees are the only thing hindering a large-scale military attack against them, according to De Roches, who believes that the movement will prolong this for as long as possible, but “it will seek to portray itself as ready to accept any peace proposal.”
As for Avtandilian, he believes that Hamas “claims that it is studying the proposal and may actually accept it, because there is increasing pressure from the Arab side on it to end this war.”
Although Israel, the United States, and the international community will not agree to Hamas returning to power in the Gaza Strip, its leaders may believe that it will remain an important player in Palestinian politics in the future, according to Avtandilian.
In the soldier’s opinion, Hamas seeks assurances and guarantees to stop hostilities, and in return, Israel wants to have the freedom to enter and leave Gaza whenever it wants, and therefore it wants a ceasefire agreement that does not end the war.
Al-Jundi concluded by saying that Biden’s goals are to show Americans – especially young people – that he did his best with both sides of the conflict, and his efforts were met with the rejection of Hamas and Netanyahu’s intransigence, which shows Biden as if he is the good man who is trying to bring in humanitarian aid, and is trying to end the war and release the detainees.