We take stock of the issues at stake in the legislative elections on November 22 in the Netherlands. Who are the main figures who could take power?
The longest serving Dutch Prime Minister is leaving his post after thirteen years in office, following elections to be held on November 22. Mark Rutte will leave his office in The Hague behind to join a classroom.
He announced his resignation in July, after the collapse of his government, an event that plunged the Netherlands into an unexpected election campaign.
The country will therefore go to the polls this Wednesday, during early general elections called two years in advance.
Here is everything you need to know about Dutch politics, the parties, the personalities and the issues at stake in this European election:
How did we get there ?
Nicknamed “Teflon Mark” for his ability to keep government crises at bay, or “Mr. Normal” for his simple lifestyle, Mark Rutte’s resignation marks the end of an era for the country.
After three terms, immigration was the turning point that led to the fall of his fourth coalition government.
For months, the Prime Minister has been working on a package of measures aimed at reducing the flow of new immigrants to the Netherlands. But internal quarrels within his coalition over limiting family reunification and the creation of a two-tier asylum system led him to throw in the towel.
Two of the four parties in the ruling coalition – the Democrats 66 (D66) and the Christian Union (CU) – opposed the bill while the other two, the VVD and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) , supported him. The idea was to reduce the number of family members allowed to join asylum seekers in the country and make families wait two years before they could be reunited.
A few days after the collapse of the coalition, Mark Rutte announced: “I will not run for the head of my party (editor’s note: right-wing liberals, VVD) in the next elections.”
“Mark Rutte’s ability to build consensus, his managerial style and his pragmatic way of doing politics, not to mention his ability to survive political scandals and fend off the far right, are certainly among the main reasons that explain his longevity in power,” told Euronews Philippe Mongrainresearcher in the “Media, Movement and Politics” research group at theUniversity of Antwerp.
“Mark Rutte has been able to stay in power in one of Europe’s most fragmented party systems by showing a willingness to compromise and demonstrating ideological flexibility when necessary,” he continued. "Maybe his successors will follow a similar path, maybe not," did he declare.
The big question today is: who will lead Dutch politics after Mark Rutte?
How are elections held in the Netherlands?
Unlike other European countries, elections in the Netherlands generally take place on Wednesdays, with the aim of encouraging voter participation.
In the open list system used in the Netherlands, each party presents a list of candidates on the ballot and citizens can choose which candidate to vote for.
To gain a seat in the Dutch House of Representatives, the only threshold a party must meet is the number of valid votes divided by 150, the number of seats in the chamber. This absence of threshold is rare in the EU.
Dutch residents of the islands of Aruba, Curacao and St. Maarten can only vote if they have lived in the Netherlands for at least ten years or if they have worked in the Dutch civil service on one of these islands, according to the page on the Dutch government website dedicated to voting.
Since World War II, the country has taken an average of 94 days to form a new coalition, but the last cabinet was the longest in post-war history. It took 299 days of negotiations to reach an agreement.
Opinion polls suggest that at least three political parties will be needed to form a coalition government after these new elections.
Who are the main parties?
The vote for the 150 seats in Parliament’s lower house will pave the way for a new generation of leaders, after key members of Mark Rutte’s fourth ruling coalition also announced they were leaving politics.
Among them, Sigrid Kaag, Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the left-wing D66 party, made her decision due to the impact of the economic crisis on the country. She made this decision because of the impact on her family of repeated threats she received while in office.
Of the 26 political parties competing, only 17 are currently represented in Parliament.
“Dutch elections are among the most volatile in Western Europe,” explains Philippe Mongrain.
According to the researcher, unlike the 2021 elections, the ruling VVD today has two close rivals: the new center-right and anti-establishment party Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC), founded in August by the former MP of the ‘Christian Democratic appeal Pieter Omtzigtand the joint list of the Labor Party and the Green Left, formed in July and led by Frans Timmermansformer vice-president of the European Commission.
The latest poll carried out by I&O Research shows that these three parties are vying for power: Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC with 27% of the vote, the former Prime Minister’s VVD with 26% and the coalition of the Green Left and the Labor Party with 25%.
“The former prime minister’s party, the VVD, is not particularly well placed, but the prime ministership is certainly not out of reach, especially since Pieter Omtzigt appears to have ruled out taking the post in the event of his party’s success,” explains Philippe Mongrain.
“Omtzigt’s new party attracts voters from several parties including the VVD, the CDA and the D66, which could explain, at least in part, the somewhat disappointing performance of these parties in the voting intention polls, “ he adds.
The Farmers and Citizens’ Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging, BBB) is another party that obtained good results during the recent regional elections.
The Rutte government’s climate change policies have affected the country’s farmers, who have mobilized en masse to protest.
Who is Omtzigt and why is he shaking up Dutch politics?
Pieter Omtzigt is one of the most popular conservative politicians in the Netherlands and although he only founded his political party, NSC, two months ago, many are betting on his victory in the elections.
This technocrat wants to bring radical changes to the country: “We want to realize our ideals, not seek power for power’s sake,” the 49-year-old politician told reporters.
His popularity is based on his charisma and his fight against the political establishment. Former member of the Christian Democratic Appeal, now independent, he became a martyr by leaving his party after writing a critical report on it.
Omtzigt played a key role in uncovering the child benefits scandal that led to the fall of the Rutte government in 2021. Dutch tax authorities used an algorithm to create risk profiles to detect tax fraud. Based on these indicators, the authorities penalized families on simple suspicion of fraud. Tens of thousands of families from the most disadvantaged backgrounds found themselves with debts they could not pay.
His track record of breaking the facts and investigating political scandals has given him rising star status, but will he seize his chance?
What are voters’ concerns?
If Dutch voters are asked what concerns them, there are three themes that dominate: purchasing power, immigration and the Dutch healthcare system, according to a recent study by AD Nieuws.
As Philippe Mongrain points out, monthly food inflation approached 20% at the start of the year and is currently around 10%, according to Statistics Netherlands, which represents a significant burden for Dutch consumers.
“In order to maintain consumer purchasing power and fund the health care system, many voters view reducing immigration as a viable solution to free up public funds,” adds the researcher.
More than 40% of voters surveyed by AD believe that too much money is spent on the country’s system of resettling asylum seekers, as well as other financial costs related to migration.
The housing shortage, the energy transition and climate change are also at the heart of voters’ concerns as the November 22 elections approach.