European elections: exclusive poll finds pro-EU coalition winning

Support for the far right is expected to increase in the next European elections, but pro-EU parties would still hold 63% of seatsaccording to a survey carried out by Ipsos for Euronews, published this Tuesday.

This exclusive poll, of almost 26,000 people in countries representing 96% of the EU population, is the first of its kind in the run-up to the historic elections scheduled for June.

The announced results would not change the fundamental configuration of the European Parliament, where centrists would still gather the majority necessary to adopt legislationthe polls suggest.

However, radical right and Eurosceptic parties could make significant gains, as they top polls in four of the six founding countries of the European Union. Furthermore, uncertainty about the potential party affiliation of certain candidates could change the situation.

With nearly 400 million voters, the elections which will be held from June 6 to 9, 2024 to designate 720 MEPs will constitute one of the largest democratic exercises in the world.

Despite five turbulent years during which Europe has had to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, soaring prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ipsos predicts remarkably little change in the fortunes of the two parties dominant policies of the EU.

Pro-Europeans remain in the majority

The number of MEPs held by the center-right EPP and left-wing socialists is expected to change little, according to the survey.

Renew Europe, Emmanuel Macron’s liberal coalition, is expected to come in third, while the rise of the radical right ID (Identity and Democracy) and eurosceptic groups CRE (European Conservatives and Reformists) will push the Greens party into sixth. position, according to the survey.

One of the first essential tasks of the next European Parliament will be to approve the president of the European Commission.

The results are therefore good news for outgoing President Ursula von der Leyen, whose EPP group seems well on its way to top the polls, with 177 MPs out of 720.

She could then obtain the majority she needs with the support of two other major pro-European parties, including the Socialists and the Greens or the Liberals, depending on the results.

But these figures don’t tell the whole story, said Fabian Zuleeg of the European Policy Center in an interview with Euronews – because in practice, parties and countries do not always remain loyal when voting on individual political issues.

“It will become much more difficult to build majorities in Parliament if the center is weakened”argues Fabian Zuleeg, executive director of the Brussels-based think tank – particularly on controversial issues.

This could lead the European Commission to rely more on non-legislative instruments such as spending programs or setting standards, he adds.

Rise of the radical right

With 30 additional seats planned between the ID and the ECR, the far right would benefit from progress fueled in particular by the support of traditionally pro-European countries.

The National Rally, the French party led by Marine Le Pen, is expected to gain ten more seats, becoming the largest party in the European Parliament along with Germany’s CDU/CSU.

The party of Dutchman Geert Wilders, surprise winner of the national elections in November 2023, will obtain nine seats.

Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party is expected to win 24 of Italy’s 76 seats, while in Belgium, two right-wing nationalist parties, Vlaams Belang and the NVA, will get three each. In Germany, the AfD party is expected to have 15 MEPs, which would place it third nationally.

These successes could have consequences for the development of European policiesexplains academic Cas Mudde to Euronews, leading to a tougher line on immigration and green laws.

But the far right does not always agree on issues such as support for Ukraine, and a Brexit-style withdrawal is not on the agenda, argues Cas Mudde, professor at the University of Georgia, United States, specializing in European populist extremism.

“In general, there will be less support for deepening European integration”he adds, but he specifies that most far-right parties today want to transform the EU rather than leave it.

Greens lose support

According to the survey, the Greens are expected to lose 17 MEPs, mainly in France and Germanyand this while the EPP’s position has recently hardened against the green policies of the EU, which seeks to reduce its emissions by 55% by 2030.

But This does not necessarily portend a step backwards on climate, given that the EU has already set its overall strategic objectivesJos Delbeke told Euronews in an interview.

“The main legislative texts have already been adopted, and the next term will focus more on their implementation”explains Jos Delbeke, professor at the Florence School of Transnational Governance who previously headed the climate change department of the European Commission.

It will be very difficult to dismantle the Green Deal, despite growing protests from farmers and the work that remains to be done on fighting pollution and protecting nature, he adds.

Uncertainties remain

Ipsos surveyed 25,916 people in 18 countries, by telephone and online, between February 23 and March 5. Coefficients were applied to the results to ensure their representativeness and supplemented by desk research for the last nine smaller EU Member States.

But there are still three months to go and these data are only projections, not results. Even after the elections, there could be shifts in allegiance or new coalitions.

The role of “non-attached” MEPs, who do not belong to any defined group and who, according to the survey, could represent almost 10% of legislators, will be a key element to watch.

Although mainly left-wing and centrist politicians, the non-registered also include around a dozen members of Hungary’s right-wing Fidesz party, which left the EPP in 2021. If we take the latter into account, Parliament could see a right-wing majority appear, even if the margin is narrow.

Likewise, the position of the currently unaffiliated Italian 5 Star Movement could prove essential. If he succeeds in joining the Green party, as he has attempted to do in the past, his planned 16 MEPs could significantly change the configuration of the European Parliament.