European elections: a headache for developing the next coalition?

This article was originally published in English

According to the latest Euronews polls ahead of the European elections, the next European Parliament is expected to have a clear majority on the right.

But the different forces in the conservative camp – from the center-right to the far-right – will have to overcome certain divisions and contradictions to form a functional alliance.

The socialist parties have experienced slight and steady growth for three months, while the Liberal Democrats of Renew are losing momentum.

The only countries where the far right is expected to do poorly are Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta.

Boyd Wagner, chief analyst at the Euronews Polling Centre, helps us better understand the results of our latest major poll in nine representative EU countries.

Euronews: In Germany, the EU’s largest economy, the Christian Democrats (CDU) are leading opinion polls. Good news for the EPP?

Boyd Wagner : The EPP (European People’s Party) will continue to benefit from the German coalition of the CDU and CSU (German and Bavarian Christian Democrats, respectively).

We expect them to reach around 30%. And this should boost the PPE group.

Euronews: The far-right AfD party appears to be losing its appeal among the German electorate and could be overtaken by the Social Democrats (SPD) as the second party. Is this due to recent scandals and accusations against some of its members of being Russian agents of influence, as well as controversial statements about the SS by head of the list Maximilian Krah?

Boyd Wagner : When people go to vote in Germany, the SS scandal could have a bigger impact. It caused the AfD to be excluded from the far-right Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament. This will therefore have a long-term effect.

Euronews: In France, the overwhelming victory of Jordan Bardella, of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, seems assured. The race for second place between two pro-EU candidates, Valérie Hayer of Renaissance and Raphaël Glucksmann of the Socialist Party, is exciting. Is not it ?

Boyd Wagner : We can see the Socialist Party in France making great progress on the heels of Renaissance. I think this will become a major concern for Emmanuel Macron and his group. I think that Renaissance will not be able to get closer to the RN; they must ensure that they remain in second place and that they do not let the socialists follow on their heels.

Euronews: Is Raphaël Glucksmann’s Socialist Party a real threat to the “presidential majority” in France and Europe?

Boyd Wagner : The Renaissance party has no interest in letting the socialists get closer, as is currently the case, a little over a week before the election. The Macron list is at 16.6%, and the Socialists at just under 14%. The two parties are therefore very close.

Euronews: Italy is the other important piece of the EU’s far-right ultra-conservative camp. Post-fascist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni regularly occupies the top spot. In recent weeks, we have seen a cautious rapprochement between Ms. Meloni (her party is a member of the ECR) and the number one French opposition, Ms. Le Pen (her party is affiliated with Identity and Democracy). Do you think they might be tempted to join forces, create a new group and abandon the project of a “pro-von der Leyen” conservative coalition (without Le Pen)?

Boyd Wagner : I don’t think Giorgia Meloni abandons this possibility. If we include everyone apart from the AfD – now that the party has been excluded from the Identity and Democracy group – you have 60-65 seats from the ID, and you can look at over 80 seats from the ECR . Together, they become a formidable number two potential; they could be more important than the S&D social democrats in the European Parliament. And that would mean that there would be a strong right that would have to be taken into account.

Can the EPP still resolve this? This is a question he must consider.

Euronews: Let’s now move on to Spain. According to the Euronews poll, the Popular Party (PP) is slightly ahead in the polls, followed by the Socialist Party, the PSOE. Is Spain the last bastion of the big traditional parties?

Boyd Wagner : The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) is the largest party currently governing in Spain. We do not expect it to be the winning party. But we are not seeing a rise in the far-right Vox as strong as we might have thought.

Instead, we are witnessing a struggle between the two establishment parties, the Popular Party and the PSOE. And, at present, it seems that it is the PP which is taking the lead, but it is not yet won.

According to our projections, the EPP and the PP in Spain would have 25 deputies, compared to 20 for the PSOE and the S&P. Again, this is a unique case.

Euronews: The PPE group will, it seems, be a German-Polish-Spanish affair. What is your analysis on this subject?

Boyd Wagner : It is very clear that it will be led by the Germans and the Spanish. And, I think that in third position there will probably be the Poles. I think you’re right.

I think that on the eastern flank of Europe, the traditional parties should get more votes than they had before. So I think the EPP will get better results there.

Euronews: Romania is another interesting example in the art of designing political coalitions. Could the next European Parliament take inspiration from the structure of the current ruling coalition in Romania?

Boyd Wagner : It’s possible. We expect the EPP to be the leader with around 11 members in the next European Parliament. We expect the S&D to follow closely with nine members. There are seven for the ECR. Finally, the Renew group has five.

The particularity of Romania is that there is also the election of their own national Parliament.

Euronews: I’m coming to the Netherlands. Will they confirm the results of the recent national elections?

Boyd Wagner : The Netherlands is interesting because they have been fighting their own internal battles for a while, and it seems like they are coming to some conclusions.

I think they will confirm their own government in due course, very soon. You have nine Dutch MEPs for the ID, that’s important.

Euronews: And Belgium? The federal elections will take place on the same day as the European elections.

Boyd Wagner : It is always difficult to make projections about Belgium. But we are also seeing a strong progression of the right, just like in the Netherlands and France.

It will be very well proportioned. In Flanders (Dutch-speaking region), we will see most voters leaning to the right. In Wallonia (French-speaking region), the proportion of left-wing voters will be greater.

Euronews: In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ultra-conservative Fidesz party is leading the polls, but for the first time a new opposition party appears to be growing. Could Péter Magyar’s movement become a political threat to Orbán?

Boyd Wagner : We currently place them at almost 20% in the polls. This is a very significant figure for a group that is not technically a united opposition. Two years ago, in the last national parliamentary elections in Hungary, they ran as a united opposition and received more than 30% of the vote. But this was not enough to achieve a victory over Prime Minister Orbán.

We still expect Fidesz to get more than 40% of the vote in Hungary. He will retain his place as undisputed leader. As far as Magyar is concerned, I think that most of its voters actually come from the other parties of the old opposition or from the other opposition parties.