The inconclusive results of the legislative elections in Portugal portend weeks of political uncertainty and strengthen far-right parties in Europe.
The rise of a populist party in Sunday’s vote has placed the hard right at the heart of Portuguese politics. The tight contest between the two main moderate parties remained unresolved pending decisive results from voters abroad. Official results are expected to be released within the next two weeks.
The rise of the Chega, or Enough, party, which is only five years old, has been astonishing. It went from 12 seats out of the 230 in Parliament in the 2022 elections to 48 seats today.
Rise of populism in Europe
Chega leader Andre Ventura has made common cause with other far-right parties across the continent such as the Matteo Salvini League, Italy’s deputy prime minister and leader of the right-wing populist party, the National Rally of the French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and Spain’s far-right Vox party, Santiago Abascal.
Like so many countries in the European Union, Portugal is moving to the right. While the European Parliament elections will be held from June 6 to 9.
In Portugal, the center-right Democratic Alliance, led by the Social Democrats, won 79 seats, while the center-left Socialist Party, which has governed for the past eight years, took 77. Both parties have alternated in power for decades. Other seats were allocated to smaller parties.
Four seats still need to be distributed. They will depend on the votes of Portuguese living abroad. Traditionally, the Social Democrats and Socialists each claim two of these seats.
But times have changed. Some Portuguese abroad are supporters of former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, and they might consider Chega following in their footsteps.
After the official results are published, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will consult the parties to find out who is best placed to form a government.
The moderate right refuses an alliance with Chega
The leader of the Social Democrats, Luis Montenegro, said he would not accept a government coalition with Mr Chega, whose policy proposals are considered unpalatable by many Portuguese.
Ventura said he was willing to abandon some of his party’s most controversial proposals – such as chemical castration for some sex offenders and introducing life sentences – if it would allow his party to be part of a possible government alliance.
The calculation is clear: if the Social Democrats and Chega unite, the right-wing parties will have around 135 seats – and a parliamentary majority – compared to around 90 for the left-wing parties.
The lack of clarity comes as the country of 10.3 million people is set to deploy billions of euros (dollars) in EU investment funds as part of an economic recovery plan.
“More than the outcome of the elections, I worry about governability, the ability to reach consensus.” said Luis Marques, a 49-year-old accountant.
An editorial in the daily Publico said the election result was “a punch in the stomach” but that the harm was “self-inflicted” because the traditional parties had misunderstood the public mood.
A series of recent corruption scandals has tarnished the socialists and social democrats, and Chega ran under the banner of fighting corruption.
Public frustration with politics as usual was evident before the outcry over corruption. Low wages and the high cost of living – made worse last year by rising inflation and interest rates – combined with a housing crisis and failings in the public health system have contributed to this discontent. Chega proposed a protest vote against all this.