It was the biggest victory in the history of the far-right party led by controversial anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders.
1. The PVV victory is important and unprecedented
The scale of the victory of the “Freedom Party” (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, far exceeds the forecasts of polling institutes and doubles the number of seats it obtained in Parliament during the last legislative elections.
This is not only the best electoral result ever obtained by this far-right party, but also the first time since the Second World War that the largest party in the Netherlands did not come from the family of liberal center-right or center-left European parties.
How did Geert Wilders do it? It appears he mobilized his 2021 voters to go to the polls again, but it also appears he won over people who abstained in 2021 and gained support from other right-wing parties.
2. Geert Wilders still needs to form a coalition
“Freedom Party” (PVV) leader Geert Wilders may have doubled his party’s number of seats in the Dutch parliament in Wednesday’s election, but that does not necessarily mean he will become prime minister.
Geert Wilders will have to form a coalition with other parties to obtain a majority in Parliament (or try to govern with a minority), which in politics always involves compromise.
The leader of the New Social Contract, a party launched just three months ago, said he would be open to talks with Geert Wilders. The party won around 20 seats in these elections.
The center-left coalition formed by the Labor Party and the Green Party is expected to win 26 seats, but its leader Frans Timmermans has already ruled out any collaboration with Geert Wilders.
“We will never form a coalition with parties who claim that asylum seekers are the source of all misery”says Frans Timmermans.
3. “Informant” and “trainer”: specificities of Dutch policy
The process of forming a new government begins with preliminary discussions among all parties to determine which combination of parties might be able to work together to reach the majority threshold, or 76 seats in the 150 seats in Parliament.
The lower house then appoints an “informant”, responsible for defining the possible contours of a coalition agreement. Until 2012, this person was appointed by the king.
When it appears that a group of parties can work together, a “trainer” is appointed. This is almost always the person who won the election and begins the delicate work of putting together a potential cabinet.
The parties then sign a coalition agreement and the new government presents its plans to the lower house, which must then approve them by a vote of confidence.
4. Forming a new government may take a long time
The process seems unique, coalition talks will be difficult, so how long can this all take?
The answer is simple: a lot of time.
Dutch parties usually fight for months to include as many points of their programs as possible in the coalition agreement, even before the race for power begins.
After the 2021 elections, it took 271 days – a record – to create the coalition that was to be outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s last.
It could take even longer this time, as most analysts don’t expect a government to be formed until summer 2024.
In the meantime, Mark Rutte and his government will remain in charge.
ADVERTISEMENT5. Geert Wilders wants a referendum to leave the EU
Although forging alliances and working together in a coalition government requires compromise, Geert Wilders has some political plans that will send chills down Europe’s spine, and which will be felt in Brussels in particular.
Although so far the Netherlands is not particularly keen on leaving the European Union, Geert Wilders says he wants to hold a “Nexit” referendum.
Among other controversial policies, he also wants to end asylum and ban Islamic schools, Korans and mosques, although he pledged Wednesday evening not to break Dutch laws or the country’s constitution. country, which enshrines freedom of religion and expression.
Geert Wilders is also a strong supporter of Israel and advocates the transfer of the Dutch embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and the closure of the Dutch diplomatic post in Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority.
