From our special correspondent – Over the first two days, the hierarchy of African football was largely shaken up. If Senegal held its place, Equatorial Guinea, Cape Verde and Angola are surprising group leaders before the third day which begins on Monday. Group by group, here is the analysis of the issues of the last day.
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The African Cup begins with 24 teams but the ax will soon fall for six of them. Before the start of the third day of CAN 2024, only two teams are already officially qualified – Senegal and Cape Verde – and only one eliminated: Guinea-Bissau.
Group by group, France 24 takes stock of the situation before a final intense day, from Monday January 22 to Wednesday January 24. Decisive matches to follow with our live commentary.
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Group A: everything remains to be done between Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea
As in many groups, anything can happen in group A. Equatorial Guinea is currently in control before facing Ivory Coast, 3rd with 3 points. Nzalang only need a draw to ensure they are in the last 16 while the hosts need a win to be sure of grabbing a top two spot. A draw or a defeat would not be eliminatory however. The Elephants would just suffer the shame of being the first host country to reach the 2nd round thanks to the drafting of the 3 best third-placed players.
The other match will not be uninteresting. For Nigeria, a preferable victory also to ensure one of the two tickets. Opposite, Guinea-Bissau is already eliminated. Even if the Lycaons perform against the Super Eagles, they would remain behind Ivory Coast, who beat them in the opening match (2-0).
Already eliminated: Guinea-Bissau.
Group B: Cape Verde 1st, Ghana and Egypt in danger
Is it better to play the team guaranteed to be first in the group and which is likely to rotate or the last team in the group, the weakest on paper but which still has a chance of passing? A question which will begin to be answered on Monday in Group B of the CAN.
Egypt will face Cape Verde, who will finish 1st no matter what. Deprived of Mohamed Salah, the Pharaohs have their destiny in their hands: a victory ensures them qualification. Another result and it will depend on the other match.
It will pit Ghana against Mozambique. A team within their reach but which kept Egypt in check on the first day. The Black Stars, like the Mambas, must win to hope to conquer 2nd place. The eventual winner, with 4 points, would whatever happens be well placed to be among the best third places. On the other hand, a draw would probably seal the fate of both teams.
Already qualified: Cape Verde.
Group C: Senegal – Guinea final for 1st place, Cameroon must wake up
Already qualified, Senegal can breathe before their match against Guinea in Yamoussoukro. The only challenge for the Lions of Teranga will be to secure 1st place and for that, a draw is enough. It is also enough for the national Syli to maintain 2nd place and see the round of 16.
In Bouaké, where the second match is being relocated, Cameroon will be under pressure. For the Indomitable Lions, victory is mandatory against Gambia to see the rest of the competition. The 3 points would give them a very good chance of being among the best thirds, or even, in the event of a big victory, of stealing 2nd place from Guinea if they are defeated. The Scorpions are not yet eliminated: a victory and Gambia could still hope to be drafted. In 2022, Comoros and Tunisia only needed 3 points to reach the round of 16.
Already qualified: the Senegal.
Group D: Algeria, Angola and Burkina Faso in a handkerchief
Algeria knows what it has to do: beat Mauritania. A victory and, with 5 points, she would reach the round of 16. Whether she is 1st, 2nd or even 3rd, which will depend on the result of the other match. A draw or a defeat, on the other hand, would put it in a very complicated situation.
In the other confrontation, Burkina Faso and Angola will compete for the head of the group. But beware ! A draw could offer Algeria the opportunity to overtake them at the wire. A defeat would leave the loser with 4 points, which, for three editions of the CAN, has always been enough to reach the next round.
Group E: Mali well placed, Tunisia in danger
Who would have bet that Tunisia would be last in the group before the final sprint? The Carthage Eagles will have to defeat South Africa, and hope that Mali does the job against Namibia to qualify directly. Any other result would greatly complicate the calculations, with at best, a 3rd place at 4 points.
For Mali, things are simpler: only a defeat against Namibia would place them in a delicate 3rd place. As for the Brave Warriors, a victory would ensure them qualification, otherwise they will again have to take out the calculator based on the result of the other match.
Group F: everyone can take their place
Sunday gave rise to a little surprise: Morocco suffered a setback by conceding a draw against DR Congo (1-1). At the same time, Tanzania drew against Zambia by the same score. At the finish, all four teams can still qualify.
Morocco remains best placed. Currently 1st, a draw against Zambia is enough for them to qualify. For the Chipolopolos, an obligatory victory on the other hand, while hoping for a defeat for Tanzania, which would place them in 3rd position, therefore draftable.
The Leopards of DR Congo will face the Taifa Stars. To have their destiny in their hands, victory is obligatory for the Congolese. Tanzania can still believe in it, but only in the event of victory.