A number of researchers and political analysts said that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” was a strategic surprise that transformed the resistance’s performance from defense to attack, and that it represented a shock to the Israeli occupation army, changed its military plans, caused Israeli policy to suffer several internal and external failures, and stopped normalization projects in the region.
The researchers added – in a panel discussion organized by the Al-Zaytouna Center for Studies and Consultations entitled “Future Prospects of the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle” – that what happened in this battle raised questions that are still pending, and the time has not come to answer them, and what resulted from it during about 14 months has become more important than the battle itself. .
For 418 days, Israel has been waging an aggression against the Gaza Strip following an attack launched by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on October 7, 2023. This aggression has so far resulted in the deaths of more than 44,000 martyrs and the injury of about 105,000, in addition to thousands more among those missing under the attack. The rubble of their homes, displaced persons or refugees, according to data from the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza.
Political environment
The biggest question raised by the Zaytouna Center symposium revolved around: Was the “October 7” attack necessary for the Palestinian resistance? The answer took different dimensions: political, military, economic, and normalization.
These dimensions can be summarized in the following points:
- The horizon of the political process has been blocked since 2014, and the security situation has been domesticated in order to accommodate the occupation according to the ruling right-wing perspective.
- Settlement expansion throughout the West Bank intensified, the gradual expulsion of Palestinians from Area C, and restrictions on them in other areas.
- Initiating the division of Al-Aqsa Mosque spatially after dividing worship therein temporally, allocating time from 7 to 11 for the settlers, and preparing to slaughter the red cows to signal the demolition of Al-Aqsa.
- Redrawing the map of the Middle East by integrating Israel security and economically into the region; US President Joe Biden announced the launch of the new economic corridor project linking India and Europe through the Gulf and Israel.
- The great progress in the file of normalization with many Arab countries, the great talk about the “Abrahamic” agreement, and what has been suggested about the efforts of many Arab and Islamic regimes to normalize relations with Israel.
- Before all of this, the Palestinian issue was absent and overlooked in the regional and international political environment, and there was no longer any talk about the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Palestinian resistance
The Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood represents a qualitative development in the thought of the Palestinian resistance, and just as it represented a surprise to the Israeli army, it was also a surprise to the resistance itself, in terms of the strategic dimension that transformed the resistance action from mere defense to the initiative of a surprise attack.
The speakers at the symposium pointed out that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” proved that there were years of preparation, training, and equipment, and that there were dedicated, hard-working people who worked to this day, and that this accumulated armed and human capabilities, and established a long network of tunnels extending along the length and breadth of the Gaza Strip.
They added that the Al-Aqsa flood is a complete military operation suitable for teaching in military colleges and institutes, and more important than the flood itself is represented by this fighting and resistance that has been extending for about 14 months, and may continue for years to come, representing a miracle that surpasses what happened at the beginning of the flood battle.
Analysts said that the resistance tactics were very proportional to the size of the aggression and its military plans, and as the battle lasted, the resistance method turned into a war of attrition, and there were no longer direct confrontations except in specific areas, through small groups that relied on setting traps and ambushes.
Israel’s failures and successes
The steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance throughout this period represents a failure of the Israeli occupation’s plans and its inability to achieve its goals that it announced since the first day of the aggression on the Gaza Strip, according to the working papers participating in the Zaytouna symposium.
The participants in the panel discussion argued that the Israeli government achieved some successes, such as remaining in power until now, and its ability to form an Israeli consensus on the goals of the war, and a political consensus on what the government is doing. It was also able to turn this aggression into an existential war for itself, and then it was able Israeli society has endured this war for more than a year.
But on the other hand, the Israeli government failed in more than one dimension:
- The political performance of the Israeli government has undermined the concept of the institutional state that has existed in Israel since its inception, and everything has become dwarfed by the interests of the government, whether related to individuals or groups.
- The emergence of the “militia” tendency in the practices of the Israeli government, thought and behavior, and this became evident in the practices of the army, politics and society as well.
These two matters lead to major internal disintegration as a result of the collapse of the institutional state based on the principles of accountability and a shared society, at the expense of the authoritarian factional “militia” ideology.
As for the external failures, the researchers believed that there was a political failure that occurred in the Israeli narrative globally, especially with regard to the state of the “victim” that prevailed for a long time, and that Israel did not maintain the international consensus supporting its aggression against the Gaza Strip, which continued only with the support of America and some European countries such as Germany, No one is anymore afraid of the accusation of “anti-Semitism” as before.
The next day
The holding of this symposium took place in light of several changes. Only two days ago, Lebanon and Israel signed a ceasefire agreement, regardless of what is happening in the Gaza Strip, and the White House is preparing next January to receive the new US President Donald Trump, and there is a shift in the international system that is heading towards… Multipolarity.
The participants in the symposium pointed out that the ceasefire in Gaza or the conclusion of any new deal is part of regional or international variables, and it must be based on 3 basic factors in order for it to be effective:
- There must be a clear Palestinian position and a unified vision for a political program for what the solution that the parties are trying to reach in the next four years will look like.
- Strong, direct and effective coordination between the positions of Arab countries in general.
- The impact of the Russian and European roles as a result of the international system approaching multipolarity.
Therefore, the researchers at the symposium talked about several scenarios that the political horizon could hold the next day, which are:
- The victory of the occupation army, and this will lead to the occupation of the Gaza Strip, open the way for the annexation of the West Bank and Jerusalem, and begin the normalization project and rearrange the region.
- The steadfastness of the resistance and the Palestinian people in a long war of attrition that may last for months.
- The previous scenario may lead to the occupation withdrawing from Gaza (partially or completely) while retaining some areas or crossings with a Palestinian administration, of which Hamas may be a part.
It is noteworthy that the symposium “Future Prospects of the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle” was organized by the Al-Zaytouna Center for Studies and Consultations via the Zoom application in two sessions yesterday, Wednesday, with the participation of an elite group of specialists, researchers, and those interested in Palestinian political affairs and regional issues.
In the first session, Ahmed Al-Haila spoke about the future prospects for the political performance of the Palestinian resistance, Moin Al-Taher about the future prospects for the military performance of the Palestinian resistance, Muhannad Mustafa about the future prospects for the Israeli political performance, and Maamoun Abu Amer about the future prospects for the Israeli military performance.
Ziad Ibhais also participated in the second session and spoke about the future of Al-Aqsa, Jerusalem, and the West Bank. Hussam Matar on the future prospects for the political and military performance of the resistance axis, Atef Al-Julani on the future prospects for Arab performance, and Ibrahim Freihat on the future prospects for international performance.