This month has been dramatic for American politics, with a dizzying series of events. Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt and emerged bolder and more energetic in his attempt to rally his voter base. President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, backing his running mate, Kamala Harris, who managed in a week to win enough delegate support to secure the nomination at the upcoming Democratic National Convention, scheduled for August 19-22.
Harris reinvigorated the Democratic campaign, raising more than $200 million in donations, getting 100,000 new voters to register and hiring 170,000 new volunteers in just seven days.
She is also doing better in the polls. Her “favorability” rating with the American public has increased by 8 percentage points to 43% in a week. Among likely voters, she is currently estimated at 47%, one percentage point lower than Trump.
Harris’s initial success can be attributed in part to the considerable relief many Democrats felt at Biden’s decision to step down. Fully 87% of registered Democrats supported his withdrawal.
But that initial momentum isn’t likely to last through the election in early November. And while Harris has brought much-needed changes to the Democratic campaign, she also represents continuity with the Biden administration, which could put her at a disadvantage in some ways.
One such issue is the Israeli genocide in Gaza. Recall that one of the reasons Biden was initially perceived as vulnerable was the “uncommitted vote” campaign by Arab and Muslim Americans in the Democratic primaries earlier this year. A significant percentage of Democrats voted uncommitted to signal their rejection of Biden’s unconditional support for the Israeli genocide in Gaza.
The results in key states have been particularly worrying for Biden’s campaign. In Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, 101,000 and 47,800 people, respectively, voted without committing. Biden had won those two states by margins as small as 154,000 and 20,600 votes in 2020.
According to the latest polls, Harris is trailing Trump by 2 to 10 percentage points in key swing states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. In Michigan, she is a full percentage point behind, and in Wisconsin, both states are at 47 percent. In other words, America’s Arab-Muslim communities, bolstered by their many progressive allies, could play a key role in determining narrow-margin victories in these states. They could prove crucial to her victory if she trails Trump in other key swing states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, or Georgia.
Members of the “Drop Biden” and “No Commitment” movements have threatened to abandon Harris if she continues Biden’s pro-war policies. The “No Commitment” movement has expanded into a growing coalition that includes other traditional Democratic Party voters, such as labor activists, progressive Jews, Blacks and Hispanics, and others who support social justice issues. On July 23, for example, seven unions representing millions of American workers called on Biden in a joint letter to end military aid to Israel.
It is important to note that opposition to the Biden administration’s policies on Palestine and Israel extends beyond these interest groups. Americans’ support for Israel’s war currently stands at 42 percent, compared to 23 percent among Democrats. In other words, the vast majority of Harris’ Democratic base does not support Israel’s actions, which the Biden administration has wholeheartedly endorsed.
I asked Huwaida Arraf, a Michigan-based Palestinian-American lawyer, human rights activist, and “uncommitted” alternate delegate to the Democratic National Convention, whether and how her colleagues expected Harris to respond to their demands. She responded: “To get our votes, the Democratic Party must fundamentally change course on Gaza specifically, and Palestine generally. They cannot continue to mistreat us, enable and fund a genocide of our people, and then hope for our votes by warning us that the alternative will be worse. Harris is part of an administration that is complicit in genocide and has done nothing to stop it. While she is considered slightly better than Biden, that is a very low bar and will not be enough to get our votes. To have a chance, Harris must distance herself from Biden’s policies in a clear and tangible way that goes beyond words. We will not accept any more crumbs.”
That sentiment is widespread among noncommittal members, who have been following Harris’s remarks on Gaza closely. The vice president did not attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress on July 24, but she met with him the next day.
Her comments after their meeting gave possible indications of her position on Gaza. She called for a ceasefire, a two-state solution and an end to the massive suffering of Palestinian civilians, referring to Palestinian women and children in a humanitarian manner rarely heard in Washington.
Adam Shapiro, a veteran Middle East analyst and justice advocate who hails from Brooklyn and is now based in Michigan, told me: “Harris must be aware that the Israeli genocide in Gaza has caused Biden’s support to decline, and we need to see if she does anything about it. Her contrast with Biden is often stark in style and words, but she has spoken well about reducing Palestinian suffering while supporting Biden’s war policy. More impressive than her words of concern is her avoidance of Netanyahu’s speech. Now she must show whether she can meaningfully change her position between now and the November election.”
The Democratic National Convention could provide Harris with an opportunity to clarify her position on Israel and its war on Gaza. As the Democratic presidential nominee, she would have more influence than she currently has as vice president. The extent to which she is willing to distance herself from Biden’s staunch support for war on Israel could determine how much support she gets from pro-Palestinian progressive Democrats.
“The bare minimum (Harris needs to do) is declare support for an arms embargo on Israel before the November vote,” Arraf said. Harris’ commitment to respecting international law is another area activists are focusing on, including her commitment to enforcing relevant U.S. laws on arms transfers used in genocide or other human rights abuses. Others say changes could be made to the party’s broad platform, announced at the convention in August.
The 2024 presidential election has long been considered one of the most important presidential contests in modern American history, given the growing power of the far right and Democrats’ concerns about their democracy. Now it’s shaping up to be an even more historic event, not only because it could put a woman of color in the White House for the first time in American history, but also because it could lead to a significant shift in the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel-Palestine.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Tel Aviv Tribune.