Eleven people were killed this week in airstrikes by Iran and Pakistan. What is behind these strikes and what could it mean for the future?
This week’s airstrikes between Iran and Pakistan, which killed at least 11 people, mark a significant escalation in tense relations between the two neighbors.
Long-running low-intensity insurgencies across the border have frustrated both countries, and the apparent targets of the strikes – Iran’s on Tuesday and Pakistan’s on Thursday – were insurgent groups whose the aim is to create an independent Balochistan for regions of Baloch origin in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The question today is therefore why Iran and Pakistan choose to strike insurgents in the other country’s territory rather than their own, given the risk of a wider conflagration.
Brief history of relations between Iran and Pakistan
Iran and Pakistan share a largely lawless 900-kilometer border, where smugglers and militants are known to move freely. The two countries suspect each other of supporting certain groups operating on the other side of the border, or at least showing leniency towards them.
Jaish al-Adl, the Sunni separatist group that Iran targeted on Tuesday, is reportedly operating from Pakistan and launching attacks against Iranian security forces.
The Baloch Liberation Army, established in 2000 and which has launched attacks on Pakistani security forces and Chinese infrastructure projects, is believed to be hiding in Iran.
Why did Pakistan retaliate on Thursday – and why now?
Pakistan said its strikes in Iran targeted Iran hideouts“Balochistan Liberation Army” and “Balochistan Liberation Front”. He added that he wanted to send a message to Iran and its other neighbors, warning them that he could retaliate if provoked.
The last time Pakistan retaliated against a neighboring country was in 2019, when it shot down two Indian warplanes and captured a pilot in the disputed region of Kashmir. This followed an Indian strike inside Pakistan on what New Delhi claimed was a terrorist training camp.
The two countries have long had volatile relations, but these strikes are likely motivated by internal dynamics.
Tehran faces growing pressure to take action after deadly attack by group “Islamic State” earlier this month, as well as Israel’s war against Iranian ally Hamas and broader unrest against its theocracy. Analysts say Thursday’s Pakistani attack also served a national purpose.
“The government and the army have been under enormous pressure since Tuesday”explains Abdullah Khan, of the think tank Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies) in Islamabad, before adding: “the public perception of a strong army is no longer what it used to be. We therefore had to react”.
How likely is an escalation?
On Thursday, the Iranian military began an annual air defense exercise stretching from the port of Chabahar near Pakistan in the east to the border with Iraq in the west. The exercise will include live firing of aircraft, drones and air defense systems.
Further strikes by Iran and Pakistan cannot be ruled out, although this week’s attacks raise questions about the preparedness of their own militaries, particularly with regard to their radars and defense systems. Aerial.
For Pakistan, these systems are essential because of ongoing, low-level tensions with its nuclear-armed rival, India. Its equipment has long been deployed along this border, rather than that with Iran. Furthermore, Iran relies on radars and air defense systems to deal with possible strikes from its main enemy, the United States.
What do these airstrikes mean for Iran and Pakistan?
Launching these strikes allows Tehran to demonstrate that it is taking direct military action without risking a broader confrontation with Israel and the United States, especially as tensions remain high over Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. .
However, the airstrikes could backfire on Pakistan as the Baloch Liberation Army said it would avenge the killings and wage war on the state.
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