Fossil fuels were at the heart of discussions on Tuesday at COP 28. The demonstrators believe that the efforts are insufficient.
Confidence in the possibility of a compromise or “particularly difficult” negotiations in sight on fossil fuels: everyone is placing their bets on the sixth day of COP28, when the game seems more open than ever.
No compromise
The European Commissioner for Climate, Wopke Hoekstra, declared in Dubai on Wednesday that the European Union wanted COP28 to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from “this decade”.
“I want this COP to mark the beginning of the end for fossil fuels,” declared Wopke Hoekstra, who has just arrived in Dubai for the last week of negotiations.
The European Union’s position is known, but the Commissioner’s unambiguous intervention comes at a pivotal moment in the 28th United Nations conference on climate change, when the delegations’ negotiators have not made any progress on a compromise despite five days of discussions.
Wopke Hoekstra insisted on one of the objectives of the Twenty-Seven: to enshrine in the legal text negotiated at COP28 that greenhouse gas emissions must begin to decline before 2030.
“We have no other alternative than to follow what the scientists tell us,” he insisted. “They tell us we need to accelerate emissions reductions, and we need to do it in this decade.”
“Quite optimistic”
“Of course it seems difficult at the moment but on the other hand it has never been such a central theme on the agenda so I am quite optimistic,” said Dan Jørgensen, appointed by the COP28 presidency to coordinate with a South African minister political discussions on the main text under negotiation.
“We will find, I am confident, a compromise which will move us in the right direction,” said the American envoy, John Kerry, on the CNA channel.
The day before, the Saudi Minister of Energy had cast a chill by saying he was “absolutely” opposed to an agreement on a reduction in fossil fuelsshowing the extent to which the camps stick to their traditional positions.
Hypocrisy
Several developing countries denounce the hypocrisy of rich countries, led by the United States and Canada, who do not set enough of an example when it comes to phasing out fossil fuels but would like poor countries to ban hydrocarbons. They are calling for much greater financial aid commitments to help countries invest in renewable energy and the transition.
“If an extremely poor country discovers oil, how can we tell them that they cannot touch it, if no one helps them?” Cuban Pedro Luis Pedroso, president of the group of countries, told AFP developing and emerging countries called “G77 and China”, essential in the standoff between North and South.
Open options
The second version of text which will serve as a basis for discussion with a view to adoption by the end of COP28 was made public on Tuesday at 5:00 a.m. local time. It summarizes in 24 pages the different options put forward by the approximately 200 countries which are negotiating feverishly in Dubai.
Their divergent views are reflected in the different options left open on the essential question of the future of fossil fuels.
From an “orderly and fair exit from fossil fuels” to nothing at all on the subject, all options are on the table, suggesting fierce battles between now and the theoretical end of COP28 on December 12.
Another debate submitted to negotiators: include the objective of tripling renewable energies by 2030 or not mention the subject.
“Clear the polluters!”
Dozens of people demonstrated at the entrance to COP28 under an already biting sun Tuesday morning, in front of a large image of a planet in flames.
“Clear the polluters!”, sang the small crowd.
Nearly 2,500 fossil fuel lobbyists have obtained accreditation for the conference, according to a coalition of NGOs.
“I have zero confidence in the fact that the COP will succeed” if “the United Nations continues to allow the fossil fuel industry” to lead the debates, Thomas Harmy Joseph, of the NGO, told AFP American Indigenous Environmental Network.
“Inevitable”
It is “now inevitable” that the threshold of 1.5°C of global warming, the ambitious objective of the Paris agreement, will be exceeded “constantly” and there is a one in two chance that this will happen in only seven years, scientists from the Global Carbon Project warned on Tuesday.
The average global temperature rise reached 2°C for the first time in one day on November 20, and 2023 is expected to touch 1.5°C on average, but the Paris agreement is based on rises stabilized over the longer term, not over a single day or a year.