The Palestinian Territory, Sudan and South Sudan, as well as Mali and Haiti, have been identified as the five places most likely to experience deadly levels of famine in the coming months, according to a new report from United Nations food agencies. United Nations.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Food Program said in a joint report Thursday that “acute food insecurity will increase in both scale and severity” in 22 countries and territories.
UN agencies based in Rome have warned that the spread of conflict, particularly in the Middle East – coupled with climate and economic stressors – is pushing millions of people to the brink.
The report highlights the regional fallout from Israel’s war in Gaza, with Lebanon also plunged into conflict, and warns that the La Nina weather phenomenon could affect the climate until March next year, threatening food systems fragile in already vulnerable regions.
“Without immediate humanitarian efforts and concerted international action to address severe access constraints and advocate for de-escalation of conflict and insecurity, further famines and loss of life are likely” in these locations, concludes the report.
The countries of “high concern” are Nigeria, Chad, Yemen, Mozambique, Myanmar, Syria and Lebanon, according to the statement. In these countries, conflict is either a major cause of hunger or a contributing factor.
Focusing on the most severely affected countries, UN agencies said the report does not “represent all countries/territories experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity.”
Agencies said 2024 marked the second year of declining funding for humanitarian aid, while 12 appeals faced funding shortfalls of more than 75%, including for Ethiopia, Yemen, Syria and Myanmar.
Gaza
An upsurge in hostilities in the Gaza Strip has raised fears that the “worst case scenario” of famine could materialize, the report said.
It estimates that 41 percent of the population, or 876,000 people, will face “emergency” levels of hunger from November to the end of April.
Nearly 16 percent, or 345,000 people, will experience the most severe “catastrophic” levels.
As of mid-October, 1.9 million people had been displaced in Gaza, the report said.
Sudan
In Sudan, hundreds of thousands of people displaced by conflict will face starvation in the Zamzam camp in North Darfur, the report predicts.
In South Sudan, the number of people facing starvation and death is expected to have almost doubled in the four months between April and July 2024 compared to the same period last year.
But these figures are expected to get worse from next May with the lean period between harvests.
More than a million people have been affected by severe flooding this month in South Sudan, the report said, a chronically unstable country plagued by violence and economic stagnation.
Haiti and Mali
Ongoing unrest in Haiti due to gang violence, coupled with the economic crisis and hurricane activity, means critical levels of hunger are likely to worsen in the poor Caribbean state, the agencies said.
The escalation of the conflict in Mali, where the UN withdrew its peacekeeping mission in 2023, will likely worsen already critical levels.
Armed groups are imposing blockades on towns and roads, hampering humanitarian aid, the agencies said.
According to the report, the direct and indirect effects of conflict on food insecurity are considerable and go well beyond the destruction of livestock and crops.
The conflict is forcing people to flee their homes, “disrupting livelihoods and incomes, limiting access to markets and leading to price fluctuations and irregular food production and consumption,” the report said.
In areas of high concern, extreme weather caused by the possible recurrence of La Nina – a natural climate phenomenon that can trigger heavy downpours or worsen droughts and heatwaves – could exacerbate hunger conditions, the report said.
