During his inauguration speech, US President Donald Trump said the “proudest legacy” of his presidency would be that of “peacemaker and unifier”.
“We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars we end,” he said Monday before referring to the release of the first Israeli captives from Gaza as part of a ceasefire. -the fire planned to give him an early political victory.
Later in the day, as he signed a series of executive orders in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters that he was “not sure” whether the deal he is largely credited with having imposed would be held.
But Trump added: “This is not our war. This is their war.
Trump made no secret of his desire to see Israel’s war in Gaza end before taking office, and he won a second term in part on a promise that he would put “America first” and would disengage from conflicts abroad. But his early actions and his first four years in office leave little doubt about his administration’s unwavering support for Israel, analysts warn, even as Trump seeks to project an image of toughness and has successfully pressured the Prime Minister. Israeli Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a deal he had rejected months earlier.
“All it took was a threat,” Diana Buttu, a Palestinian analyst and former negotiator, told Tel Aviv Tribune, crediting Trump with using the leverage of his position in a way that the former President Joe Biden never did. “Having said that, I think we shouldn’t give Trump all this fanfare and all this applause because I don’t think this is a deal with no reward for Netanyahu and no cost to (the Palestinians). “
Israel’s reward
If a reward was promised in exchange for the deal, Trump’s first hours in office might suggest what it is, Buttu said. Trump wasted no time lifting Biden’s sanctions against Israeli settlers accused of attacks on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, and on Tuesday his choice for ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, said during her hearing confirmation that Israel has a “biblical right” to the West Bank. Trump’s chosen ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, also previously made a biblical reference on the subject when he declared: “The West Bank does not exist. This is Judea and Samaria.”
The actions and statements only build on what Trump had already done during his first term as president from 2017 to 2021, including significantly reducing funding for UNRWA, the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees; recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel despite the occupation of its Palestinian eastern half; moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem; and recognize Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which is Syrian territory.
On Wednesday, the fourth day of the ceasefire in Gaza, Israeli forces launched a raid on Jenin in the occupied West Bank, killing at least 10 people and raising fears that Israel could further intensify its attacks there. There was no American reaction because the ceasefire does not include the West Bank.
“There would always be great rewards for Netanyahu,” Buttu said, noting that she also expected the president to soon suppress the pro-Palestinian movement in the United States, another Israeli priority. “Trump gave the Israelis pretty much everything they wanted, and he simply said to them: ‘Don’t keep me up at night.’”
Yet Trump’s hint from day one that the ceasefire may not be enough indicates that even such rewards may not be enough to keep Netanyahu committed to a ceasefire he is fighting against. for months for the sake of his own political survival.
HA Hellyer, a political analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London and the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C., suggested that Trump may already be preparing to blame others — likely Hamas — for the potential failure of the agreement he claims. credit for brokerage.
“Trump wanted a deal so he could say he got a deal,” Hellyer told Tel Aviv Tribune, adding that he would be “surprised if we got through even the first phase, unless we had a lot more DC intervention.”
He pointed to Netanyahu’s repeated assertions that Israel has the “right” to resume fighting in Gaza – and US support for doing so – as an indication that there is no real commitment to ceasefire from Israel.
“Everyone talks about a ceasefire, but a ceasefire indicates that there is a commitment not to return to war. We don’t have that yet at all,” Hellyer said. “Statements coming from various Trump administration officials as well as Trump himself are also not great in this regard. Will Trump use American influence to ensure that the Israelis complete phase one and advance to phase three? The signs are not encouraging.
The “deal of the century”
Although he views the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as “not our war,” Trump may have a real stake in his legacy as a negotiator, some analysts said.
During his first term, Trump proposed a “peace deal” for Israel and Palestine, which his administration billed as the “deal of the century,” and he attempted to “normalize” relations between Israel and several states. Arabs, bypassing the Palestinians in the process. . This time, he is expected to again seek a deal that, while cementing his legacy, would also likely benefit his business interests in the region.
But normalization requires a more inclusive policy project than the Abraham Accords, promoted by Trump during his first term, said Matt Duss, executive vice president of the progressive think tank Center for International Policy.
“If Trump is serious about bringing peace as he claims to be, if he is serious about getting a Nobel Peace Prize, if he is serious about doing what no other president could do to bring about peace between Israelis and Palestinians and normalize Israel in the region in a real and lasting way, then achieving a fair and reasonable solution for the Palestinians is absolutely essential to that.
“The way to reach Trump is to appeal to his sense of his own greatness,” Duss added. “I think we need to make him understand that for a peace and normalization agreement to be truly real and lasting and not limited to a set of arms sales, which is what the Abraham Accords were, it will have to have a real impact just a resolution for the Palestinians.
It’s a big challenge. Israel has shown no interest in anything that could bring the Palestinians closer to statehood – something many analysts say has long been a ruled out possibility – given Israel’s expansion into the territory. busy.
This week, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who has previously spoken out in favor of the notion of Palestinian statehood, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the October 7, 2023 attacks on the south of Israel were a “wake-up call”. call” on its plausibility.
And then there are Trump’s sometimes conflicting allegiances: to a broad Christian Zionist political base that is firmly aligned with Israel’s most far-right political elements; to donors like Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson, who supported his campaign to the tune of nearly $100 million; as well as Gulf partners like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has so far indicated that normalization of relations with Israel would depend on the creation of a state for the Palestinians.
For a president who has said he wants to put “America first,” it is difficult to imagine how Trump could extricate himself from the conflict.
“I think Trump is truly an America-first man. He doesn’t want to have to worry about wars. He doesn’t like to think about it, and he has said it over and over again,” Buttu said. “But at the same time, I don’t know who’s going to shoot it.”