Bulgarians will go to the polls on Sunday for the seventh parliamentary elections, as the country faces growing political instability that could boost the popularity of pro-Russian and far-right groups.
Of the six elections held since 2021, only two have resulted in the election of a government, but both coalitions collapsed after trying to introduce reforms, tackle corruption and reduce reliance on towards Russia.
There was no clear winner in the last vote, held in June, and the seven groups elected to the fragmented legislature were unable to put together a viable coalition. Observers suggest that the next election will produce more of the same and that the chances of immediately breaking the political deadlock are low.
Pollsters predict that voter fatigue and disillusionment with the political system will result in low turnout and a new, fragmented parliament where populist and pro-Russian groups could increase their representation.
According to Stoyana Georgieva, a prominent analyst, a record turnout is expected and, at the same time, a high number of votes that were not freely cast. These include cases where parties paid for votes in cash, but also cases where local authorities or businesses pressured voters to vote a certain way.
The pro-Russian party gains ground
Ms Georgieva said it was possible that Bulgaria’s main pro-Russian party, Vazrazhdane, would become the second largest group in parliament. This far-right, ultranationalist and populist party demands that Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop aiding Ukraine and hold a referendum on its membership in NATO.
The Balkan country of 6.7 million people has been plagued by political instability since 2020, when nationwide protests erupted against corrupt politicians who had allowed oligarchs to take control of state institutions.
Bulgaria is one of the poorest and most corrupt European Union member states. Attempts to combat corruption are an uphill battle against an unreformed judiciary, widely accused of serving the interests of politicians.
Ms Georgieva said she did not expect the next parliament to produce a widely acceptable compromise. “ At best, it could be a compromise bordering on the lesser evil in Bulgaria. In this turbulent situation in the region – with the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East – both conflicts are very close to Bulgaria and Bulgaria is very vulnerable “, she told the Associated Press.
A coalition in sight
According to Georgieva, three main groups of parties will enter the next Parliament.
“ The first group consists of the kleptocratic parties led by GERB, until recently in power, which is also the first political force whose leader and former prime minister is responsible for the implementation of a corrupt model in Bulgaria ” said Georgieva, referring to former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov.
“ The second group is made up of parties which, in an honest manner, attempt to defend the causes of justice and liberal democracy; and a third group of parties that are openly pro-Putin.” She added.
It is very likely, according to Ms Georgieva, that after these elections some sort of government will be formed between the democrats and the kleptocratic parties which maintain pro-European and pro-Ukraine positions.
If the successive elections since 2020 have produced broadly similar results, the current election will bring some changes to the political landscape. Two of the oldest parties – the Socialists and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms – have been seriously shaken by internal conflicts.
The MRF, which traditionally represented the Turkish vote, recently split into two rival factions, one around party founder Ahmed Dogan and the other behind businessman and media mogul Delyan Peevski, sanctioned by the United States.
