The inter -trade represents one of the signs or weakness of international relations, especially in its commercial and economic aspect, and therefore we found this fierce war that was sparked by US President Donald Trump with China and other countries, due to the deficit of the trade relationship with these countries with an estimated deficit of about $ 1.29 trillion in 2024, according to the World Bank database figures.
About 10 days before the 17th Summit of the Brax Group in Brazil on July 6 and 7, Kirill Dmitriev, the Special Representative of the Russian President, said that the BRICS countries reached a trillion dollars.
The man’s statement came as a matter of pride, which can be discovered from that the gathering is moving towards good steps from economic cooperation, but when reading the number mentioned in light of the performance of the gross domestic product and the foreign trade of the BRICS countries with the world we find that the number is limited and does not exceed the rates of congregations for developing countries.
An example of the Arab countries, for example, ranges between 8% and 10% for decades, due to the competition of Arab economies, the absence of the integrated environment between them, and that they depend in their trade with the world with mainly non -Arab partners.
The inter -trade of the ASEAN gathering is estimated at about 25%, and in the European Union, the percentage of inter -trade for its country ranges between 50%and 75%, which means that the degree of economic cooperation as well as integration reaches medium degrees in the ASEAN group, and high in the European Union.
My information is insufficient
By seeing the official website of the Brex Group, we did not find its own statistical base through which the performance of the total indicators of the gathering can be known, other than what is available, for example, in the matter of European entities, and even the performance of the BRICS in the production of statistics has not yet reached the level of joint Arab action institutions that statistically rely on collecting their countries in the bank’s databases and the international fund or other international institutions.
The point of weakness here is that the gathering of the BRICS has gone on its launch and its foreseeable work more than a decade and a half of time, and the production of its statistical data is an important matter that contributes significantly to the work of the necessary studies, and reaching a real evaluation of the performance of the grouping and reading its future away from media allegations or political employment of some of his activities.
Vulnerable intercourse
By collecting the foreign trade values of the BRICS countries through the World Bank database numbers, we find that the total global trade of the gathering is about 10.8 trillion dollars, and if we compare the number mentioned by the Russian official – who estimated the value of the inter -trade trade of a trillion – we are facing a percentage not exceeding 9.2% of the total foreign trade of the gathering.
The weak inter -trade of the BRICS countries is due to the fact that these countries are largely related to their foreign trade with America and the European Union. China trade, for example, constitutes approximately 25% of the European Union.
We should take into account the ongoing events since 2022 regarding Russia’s trade with both China and India, as a good part of its foreign trade has been transformed from America and the European Union to China and India, and China was the most largest share of commercial and economic dealings with Russia.
In the event of an agreement on ending the war in Ukraine, the value of the trade of Russia with China is expected to change specifically for the European Union in particular as it was before the war in 2022.
The same thing is expected to happen with Iran if the sanctions are lifted from it, as it needs a strong need for its commercial and economic relations to return with the European Union. Before economic sanctions in 2012, the European Union was the first trade partner of Iran.
The other thing is that although the value of the foreign trade of the BRICS is about 10.8 trillion dollars, China alone acquires $ 6.1 trillion of this value, or 56.4% of the total foreign trade of the Brexes.
This is transferred to the modest proportions of the rest of the member states, such as Ethiopia, which has an external trade of about 15.7 billion dollars, Egypt 128 billion, or South Africa, 233 billion dollars, which make us look into consideration to the aforementioned number regarding the inter -trade trade by the Russian official as it reaches a trillion dollars.
The rule says that the numbers describe the reality and do not reflect the facts. According to the data of the Chinese Customs Authority, the trade exchange between China and Russia reached approximately 245 billion in 2024, that is, a percentage of approximately 25% of the total inter -trade trade.
If we look at the trade exchange of China with the rest of the BRICS countries, we may reach that China acquires a percentage of no less than 60% of the inter -trade with the BRICS countries, and here the situation of China between the BRICS countries is very similar to placing America in its dealings with the world or with various regional gatherings.
Not only that, if we compare the value of the inter -trails of about 2024 trillion dollars in 2024 with the value of GDP, we would find that the percentage is very weak up to 3.3%.
Development paths
Increased trade does not come from a vacuum, an administrative decision or a political desire, but it comes through strong production rules and competition capable of making the inter -trade based on interests and exchanging benefits, and there is no doubt that building production rules and possessing competition tools requires time, especially given that the majority of the ten countries are the Brexes of developing countries.
There are steps between some BRICS countries to mediate local currencies in intra -trade, which would reduce the need for foreign criticism, especially the US dollar, but the main problem remains in providing technological goods, number and machines, so that the policy of domestic currencies is given its fruits in the case of the BRICS.
To achieve better rates in inter -trade, the BRICS gathering needs to increase inter -investment and help in the transfer and localization of technology between its members, as well as advance the level of development in the countries of its poor members.
And the bet on time alone without the availability of broader steps in an integral project for the Berrax will not be found.
The challenge remains in front of the BRICS gathering during the next stage in two things:
- Take serious steps to activate a claim towards America and the West in issues related to justice, equality and freedom of trade.
- The conglomerate puts plans and time programs to activate a state of cooperation or economic integration, so that member states are obligated to prepare their commercial and economic structures for the requirements of the active survival in the gathering, otherwise the gathering will remain another form of southern gatherings, whose role does not exceed banners in the face of the West and America.