On Monday, US President Joe Biden told reporters that he hoped for a ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza by Monday March 4.
“My national security adviser tells me we are close. We are close. We’re not done yet. I hope that by next Monday we will have a ceasefire,” Biden said amid talks held since January under the auspices of Egypt, Qatar and the United States.
How are negotiations on the truce in Gaza progressing?
Israeli officials met mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the United States in Paris on Friday. Hamas, the Palestinian armed group, was not represented at these talks.
The talks resulted in a framework for a potential truce as well as prisoner-prisoner exchanges that Israel agreed to, sources told Tel Aviv Tribune.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Israel and mediators had “reached agreement” on the basic terms of a deal.
An Israeli military delegation is expected to visit Qatar for more intensive talks in the coming days. Qatar has been at the forefront of mediation efforts, including with Israel, Hamas and other countries – including the United States – to help get more aid to Gaza amid the war and to establish a ceasefire.
What is at stake?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his intention to launch a military attack on Rafah, the southernmost urban area of the Gaza Strip, where 1.4 million Palestinians are sheltering and on the verge of famine. Most of them are internally displaced, having fled their homes to escape Israel’s bombings and ground invasions in the rest of Gaza.
With a ground incursion into Rafah looming, airstrikes began on February 8 and hit residential areas, killing civilians in the city which shares a border with Egypt. On February 21, the al-Faruq mosque in Rafah was razed by Israeli airstrikes.
Israeli attacks killed around 3,523 Palestinians in Gaza last month, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. Nearly 30,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began on October 7 last year, and thousands more are buried under rubble and presumed dead.
Humanitarian agencies and Israel’s Western allies are pressuring Israel to refrain from a full-scale invasion of Rafah for fear of a humanitarian catastrophe.
Israel faces additional pressure from two legal cases before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). One of them, filed by South Africa, directly accuses Israel of having committed genocide in Gaza, while the other requests legal clarification on the status of the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories.
South Africa’s genocide case against Israel led the ICJ to issue a series of interim measures last month, including ordering Israel to cease all acts of genocide and take all possible measures to guarantee that no act of genocide is committed. Human Rights Watch issued a statement Monday saying Israel is not complying with these measures.
Ramadan, the holy month in which Muslims observe fast, will likely begin on March 10. Arab countries have expressed fears that continued fighting during Ramadan could lead to new conflicts in the region. “Ramadan is approaching, and the Israelis have agreed that they will not participate in activities during Ramadan as well, to give us time to get all the hostages out,” Biden said.
What does each party require?
Hamas wants all displaced Palestinians to be able to return to their homes in Gaza. Additionally, Hamas wants more humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza alongside a reconstruction plan to build or repair infrastructure destroyed or damaged by Israeli bombing.
A source told Tel Aviv Tribune that Israel said it would allow the gradual return of displaced people to the northern Gaza Strip, with the exception of “those of military service age.” Israel also agreed to Hamas’ request that more aid be allowed into the Gaza Strip.
Israel demands the total demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. This means Hamas would have to disarm, a condition the group is highly unlikely to accept.
Would an agreement imply a total ceasefire?
Israel and Hamas fundamentally disagree over the conditions required for a ceasefire.
Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire under which Israel will withdraw its forces from Gaza. However, Netanyahu said he did not want to end Israel’s military campaign until “total victory” was achieved over Hamas, for which an invasion of Rafah is seen as key.
The Israeli prime minister demands that Israel maintain unlimited control over Gaza’s security and civil affairs after the war. He also wants to choose Palestinian officials to govern the Gaza Strip. Palestinian officials have rejected Netanyahu’s post-war vision for Gaza.
Unlike Hamas, which wants a permanent ceasefire, Israel is ready to accept a “temporary cessation” of fighting during a prisoner exchange. Israeli media cited officials speaking of a six-week truce during Ramadan.
And another captive-prisoner exchange?
Israel offered to release 400 Palestinian prisoners, including a number of prisoners serving long sentences, in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli captives. Hamas initially demanded a large-scale release of Palestinian prisoners.
Around 130 prisoners, captured by Hamas on October 7 during its attack on southern Israel, are still in Gaza.
What happened during the November truce?
A truce agreement reached in November led to a week-long pause in fighting during which Hamas released 105 prisoners and Israel released 240 Palestinian prisoners. While the agreement initially called for a four-day break, it was extended twice.
The United Nations humanitarian office, OCHA, reported that despite the pause in fighting at that time, Israeli forces fired on Palestinians in northern Gaza on November 29, killing two people. They also shelled people in Gaza City and towards the southern coast of Gaza on November 30.
As soon as the truce ended on December 1, Israel resumed airstrikes on Gaza and ordered residents of Khan Younis, in central Gaza, to evacuate further south.