7/22/2025–|Last update: 12:08 (Mecca time)
Erica Chinoyeth, a professor of political science at Harvard University, has analyzed more than 300 protests since 1900, and concluded that the peaceful mobilization in which at least 3.5% of a country population has a very great opportunity to achieve a major political change.
At first glance, 3.5% may seem modest, according to a report on the topic in the French magazine Le Pen, but the magazine shows that this in the United States, for example, means more than 11 million people leaving the streets, and in France, 2.3 million people are explicitly demanding the dismissal of the government.
The magazine is attributed to the researcher to go to the chances of success of peaceful campaigns 6 times higher than the chances of successful campaigns, even in light of the intense repression.
The researcher explains this event with the ability of nonviolence to collect broader slices of the population, bypassing the activists’ circles to include citizens from all backgrounds, and in return, violence tends to isolate movements.
Chinyeth: The chances of success of peaceful campaigns are 6 times higher than the chances of successful campaigns, even in light of the intense repression.
To confirm what I went to, Chenwith sees that the numbers speak for themselves: 53% of peaceful movements resulted in a real political shift, compared to only 26% of those that resorted to weapons.
The researcher went on to that there are many historical examples that support this theory, such as the “Revolution of the People’s Authority” in the Philippines in 1986 or the “Revolution of Roses” in Georgia in 2003, as the peaceful crowds brought a major change in the political scene.
However, Cenoyeth pointed out that the base of the 3.5% is not an absolute law, warning of the idea of “magic recipe”, stressing the importance of the historical context and building a wide support base.
It appears from her studies, according to the magazine, that she focused mainly on radical changes (the fall of dictatorial systems, national independence) and not on simple reforms, as it has recognized that such peaceful protests may fail even if a greater percentage of the public participated in it, which shows that history is complicated and unpredictable.
Indeed, according to what the researcher went to, the 3.5% rule reveals that the committed and peaceful minority can bring down the system, provided that it has clear discipline, goals and broad social support, but the experience showed that there is no mobilization guaranteed success.