Tehran, Iran – Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital in an attack the group blamed on Israel, raising tensions in a region that appears increasingly close to the brink of all-out war.
The assassination came hours after Israel carried out another attack in Lebanon, targeting a senior Hezbollah official. Hamas and Hezbollah are both part of the Iran-led “axis of resistance,” a loose grouping of groups spanning the region that are united in their opposition to Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank and have been engaged in missile exchanges with Israel since October 7 as part of the ongoing war in Gaza.
The announcement of Haniyeh’s assassination on Wednesday marks a serious escalation not only in the war on Gaza, but also in strained relations between Israel and Iran. Israel, which has not officially claimed responsibility for the Hamas leader’s assassination, has never attacked Iranian soil using externally launched projectiles, despite a history of targeted assassinations and sabotage in Iran. Israeli media reported that the missile that struck Haniyeh’s residence was launched from outside Iran, although Iran has neither confirmed nor denied the claim.
Iran, like Hamas, has blamed Israel. Iranian leaders have vowed “harsh revenge” against Israel. Here’s a look at what happened, what it means for Iran, and how the country might respond.
How was Haniyeh killed?
The Palestinian leader was killed when the building he was staying in was hit by an “air projectile”, according to Iranian state media.
Haniyeh and a personal bodyguard, identified as Wasim Abu Shaaban, were confirmed killed – no other casualties have been announced.
The Haniyeh residence was reportedly a building reserved for Iranian military veterans.
The head of Hamas’s political bureau, who has been living outside the Gaza Strip since 2019, had traveled to Iran and many other countries several times since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians.
How was the timing significant?
Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration ceremony of moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian among 110 foreign delegations, according to Iranian authorities.
He was killed hours after warmly embracing Pezeshkian in parliament following his swearing-in, as lawmakers and officials chanted slogans in support of the Palestinian cause.
“Yesterday I raised his victorious hand and today I must bury him on my shoulders,” wrote Pezeshkian, the moderate president backed by reformists who has promised to engage with the United States and the West to lift tough sanctions on Iran.
Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhaleh had met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hours earlier. It is unclear whether al-Nakhaleh was also inside or near the residence where Haniyeh was killed.
The last photos of martyr Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran pic.twitter.com/xcKHSoRRQl
— IRNA News Agency (@IrnaEnglish) July 31, 2024
Hours before the Palestinian leader’s death, Israeli warplanes bombed a residential building in a southern suburb of Beirut, targeting Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, amid a rapidly escalating conflict. At least three people were killed and more than 70 others wounded, but it is unclear whether Shukr was among the casualties.
Around the same time, the United States carried out an attack on a base south of Baghdad run by the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which killed several members of the Iran-backed group.
What does this mean for Iran’s security?
The airstrike was carried out by Israel in northern Tehran, according to authorities. This is where many senior officials reside and where many foreign delegations attending the inauguration are staying.
It is unclear exactly where the attack took place, but the area was under heavily armed guard to protect foreign guests.
This strike will certainly trigger investigations within Iranian military institutions, as it appears to have come unexpectedly and no air defense activity was reported prior to the assassination.
In the absence of a large number of advanced combat aircraft that could contribute to air defense and establishing air superiority, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian military use a wide range of missile defense systems.
But none of the many foreign-made or locally developed radar systems or missile defense batteries operating at different ranges managed to thwart the attack.
Israel has a long history of sabotaging Iranian nuclear and military facilities and assassinating nuclear scientists in Iran. It is also believed to be behind three small explosive quadcopters launched from Iran that struck a military facility in Isfahan in April and damaged a Russian-made S-300 missile defense system.
But it has never launched an airstrike inside Iran from outside the country, and certainly not against the capital.
How might Iran respond?
Iran and Israel have been engaged in a shadow war for many years, but the situation has escalated significantly into open conflict since the start of the Gaza war, leaving the door open to another potential direct Iranian attack on Israel.
On April 14, Iran launched more than 300 ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as one-way drones, directly at Israel in a carefully planned attack. The United States and Israel shot down most of the projectiles, but some managed to hit, damaging a military base but causing no casualties.
The attack came in response to the Israeli military’s destruction of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which also killed two senior generals and several other IRGC members.
Earlier this month, IRGC aerospace commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh said in a speech, “We are waiting for the opportunity” to launch a second iteration of the direct attack on Israel, which he said could be carried out with even more projectiles. Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East, including hypersonic missiles that are theoretically capable of reaching Israel within minutes.
Khamenei, Pezeshkian and the IRGC have all promised retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination, but have not discussed whether this could take the form of a direct attack, more asymmetric attacks or a coordinated effort with the “axis of resistance” that Iran supports across the region.
The Iranian mission to the United Nations said that “the response to an assassination will indeed be special operations – harsher and designed to instill deep regret in the perpetrator.”
“The Islamic Republic of Iran strongly condemns the Zionist regime’s act of aggression,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said. Iran, he added, “considers it its inherent right to respond appropriately to this act of aggression against its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Kanaani stressed the US support for Israel in its war on Gaza and accused it of being responsible for Haniyeh’s assassination. “As a supporter and accomplice of the Zionist regime in continuing the occupation and genocide of the Palestinians, the US government is responsible for this heinous act of terrorism,” he said.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Washington was “not aware of or involved” in Haniyeh’s killing.
What’s at stake?
The strike comes as Israel and Lebanon have been on the brink of all-out war for a week, after a projectile fell on a soccer field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27, killing 12 children and youth.
The Israeli military blamed Hezbollah, which categorically denied responsibility. Tehran also called the accusation a “fabrication” by Israel to divert attention from the carnage in Gaza.
The assassination of the head of Hamas’s political bureau, a central figure in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, is expected to complicate this process, despite the dire humanitarian situation in the besieged enclave and growing international pressure to end it.
The political assassinations and repeated attacks on civilians in Gaza as negotiations continue make us wonder how mediation can succeed when one side assassinates the negotiator on the other side. Peace needs serious partners and a global stand against disregard for human life.
– محمد بن عبدالرحمن (@MBA_AlThani_) July 31, 2024
Hamas’ military wing, the Qassam Brigades, called Haniyeh’s assassination a “dangerous event” that would have “major repercussions throughout the region.”
“The US and the EU must have understood by now that Netanyahu’s survival depends on death and destruction,” Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former Iranian foreign minister who played a key role in Pezeshkian’s nomination as president, wrote in a message on X.
“It is high time for the West to stop protecting Netanyahu’s madness and join the world in ending his suicidal chaos.”